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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Europe’s Shift to EVs Amid Intensifying Global Competition
Philippe Wingender
,
Jiaxiong Yao
,
Robert Zymek
,
Benjamin Carton
,
Diego A. Cerdeiro
, and
Anke Weber
European countries have set ambitious goals to reduce their carbon emissions. These goals include a transition to electric vehicles (EVs)—a sector that China increasingly dominates globally—which could reduce the demand for Europe’s large and interconnected auto sector. This paper aims to size up the tradeoffs between Europe’s shift towards EVs and key macroeconomic outcomes, and analyze which policies may sharpen or ease them. Using state-of-the-art macroeconomic and trade models we analyze a scenario in which the share of Chinese cars in EU purchases rises by 15 percent over 5 years as a result of both a positive productivity shock for car production in China and a demand shock that shifts consumer preferences towards Chinese cars (given China’s dominance in the EV sector). We find that for the EU as a whole, the GDP cost of this shift is small in the short term, in the range of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, and close to zero over the long term. Adverse short-run effects are more significant for smaller economies heavily reliant on the car sector, mainly in Central Europe. Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would raise the GDP cost of the EV transition. A further increase in Chinese FDI inflows that results in a significant share of Chinese EVs being produced in Central European economies, on the other hand, would offset losses in these economies by supporting their shift from supplying the internal combustion engine (ICE) production chain to that of EVs.
Keywords:
Electric vehicles; green transition; trade; tariffs; global value chains.; protectionist policy response; GDP cost; EV share; Europe's shift; shift to electric vehicles; Foreign direct investment; Productivity; Imports; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains
Johannes Eugster
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
, and
Mr. Roberto Piazza
This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.
Keywords:
Tariffs; global value chains; value added; productivity; IMF working paper research Department; tariff measure; employment from tariff; tariff war; upstream tariff; effect of tariff; Tariffs; Total factor productivity; Labor productivity; Exports; Imports; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2019
World Economic Outlook, October 2019
Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

Keywords:
WEO; emerging market; fiscal policy; economy; monetary policy; advanced economy; federal funds rate; governance index; federal state; core inflation; AE country level; labor market adjustment; firm productivity; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor productivity; Labor markets; Inflation; Tariffs; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat
Weicheng Lian
,
Natalija Novta
,
Evgenia Pugacheva
,
Mr. Yannick Timmer
, and
Petia Topalova
Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative price of tangible tradable capital goods provided a significant impetus to the capital deepening that took place during the same time period. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, was driven by the faster productivity growth in the capital goods producing sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and deeper trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going forward.
Keywords:
WP; relative price; import penetration; Relative price of investment goods; trade integration; trade barriers; capital deepening; global value chain; trade cost; price of machinery; investment rate; price of capital goods; Imports; Labor productivity; Producer prices; Tariffs; Trade barriers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
Davide Furceri
,
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Mr. Andrew K. Rose
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
Keywords:
WP; sensitivity analysis; protection; output; productivity; unemployment; inequality; exchange rate; trade balance.; tariff change; output tariff effect; tariff increase; input tariff; tariff consequence; tariff rate; Tariffs; Trade balance; Real exchange rates; Protectionism; Global; Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Growth in the first half of 2018 was softer than in 2017, especially in advanced economies. In contrast, growth remained robust in emerging market economies and broadly in line with expectations. After rising to 6.9 percent in 2017, growth in China continued to be strong into the first half of 2018 but has likely slowed since, given the latest high-frequency indicators, including weakening investment growth. In Japan, after exceeding potential for two years, growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2018 before rebounding sharply in the second quarter. In India, growth continues to recover steadily after the disruptions related to demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax in the last fiscal year.1 And in ASEAN-4 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand), growth generally lost momentum in the first half of 2018, except in Thailand.

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff calculation; economy; trade; growth strategy; growth; growth slowdown; Asia's growth; growth engine; trade tension scenario; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Tariffs; Digitalization; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization
Mr. JaeBin Ahn
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Bingjie Hu
, and
Lamin Njie
This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country-industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non-tariff barriers. Finally, we find strong evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.
Keywords:
WP; input tariff; output tariff; tariff data; Trade; Productivity; Tariffs; Inputs; Liberalization; FDI; Reforms; Growth; tariff rate; complementarity regression; tariff liberalization; Total factor productivity; Foreign direct investment; Trade liberalization; Global; research department; fiscal affair; productivity gains from trade liberalization
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The paper is an elaborated report on Nicaragua’s potential economic growth. The challenges and idiosyncratic shocks were immense but the policies of better education, labor contracts, and accomplishments in public investments paved the way for movement of the economy. The external competitiveness and exchange rate assessment also have an important hand. The achievements in the electricity sector and the improvement in reforming the pension system are the prominent aspects. On the whole, the Board considers this growth as a positive trial of development in the global panorama.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tariff; minimum wage; maquila export; tariff-cost gap; generation cost; reserve coverage; tariff policy; tax shock; Doing Business Indicators rank Nicaragua; Electricity; Tariffs; Output gap; Total factor productivity; Public investment spending; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
Like most Sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya’s economic growth appears to have been primarily driven by factor accumulation. The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Kenya examines economic developments and policies. During the last two decades, Kenya has been plagued by pervasive problems of internal conflicts, constitutional crises, and corruption scandals. The governance agenda focuses on several reforms, including upgrading the public budget and financial management systems, strengthening the anticorruption institutions, and improving the judicial framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kenya; pay; inflation; TFP growth; wage bill; Reduced-Form inflation equation; development objective; governance agenda; growth performance; bill-to-domestic revenue; Tariffs; Total factor productivity; Wages; Real exchange rates; Imports; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia
Mary Amiti
and
Mr. Jozef G Konings
This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to lower tariffs on intermediate inputs. Lower output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs can raise productivity via learning, variety, or quality effects. We use Indonesian manufacturing census data from 1991 to 2001, which includes plant-level information on imported inputs. The results show that the largest gains arise from reducing input tariffs. A 10 percentage point fall in output tariffs increases productivity by about 1 percent, whereas an equivalent fall in input tariffs leads to a 3 percent productivity gain for all firms and an 11 percent productivity gain for importing firms.
Keywords:
WP; input tariff; output tariff; productivity gain; goods tariff