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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Growth and Production Network in Chile: Chile
Si Guo
Productivity growth depends not only on technological innovation but also on production networks that amplify its impact. Theory and cross-country evidence indicate a positive relationship between productivity growth and the use of intermediate inputs, a measure of network connectedness. We find that Chile’s intermediate input utilization is significantly lower than that of OECD peers, such as Korea and the Czech Republic, and declined during 2008-21. This is primarily due to weak domestic producer connections and the smaller presence of the manufacturing sector. We argue that diversifying exports from mining, reducing trade costs, and improving contract enforcement could strengthen network linkages and boost growth.
Keywords:
Chile; Productivity; Input-output; production network; D. input-output linkage; A. growth slowdown; network linkage; aggregate productivity growth; Exports; Manufacturing; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
AI readiness; AI adoption; B. Qatar's progress; artificial intelligence in Qatar; innovation policy; Export diversification; Capital spending; Exports; Human capital; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in Korea. As a leading innovator and semiconductor producer, Korea is highly exposed to AI. Korea is widely recognized as a leading technology innovator and consistently ranks high on various global innovation indexes. AI usage is rising in Korean firms, notably among large, young, and tech-related firms. Empirical analysis confirms the significant role of firm size, age, and complementary assets in driving AI adoption. AI exposure tends to be higher for high-income groups, but potential gains from AI also increase with income. AI adoption leads to significant output and productivity gains, especially in Scenario 3 featuring both high labor complementarity and high overall productivity. Active and ongoing policy efforts are being made to promote AI adoption while managing potential risks. High labor market duality poses significant challenges for workers to switch jobs, especially for elderly groups. The authorities have taken proactive steps to advance AI development and adoption, expand the AI talent pool, and establish regulations to manage associated risks.
Keywords:
Korea export share; profitability regression; AI adoption; E. AI preparedness; AI usage; Exports; Productivity; Trade tensions; Competition; Global; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation analyzes that the Chilean economy is broadly balanced but modest potential growth has constrained increases in living standards and makes it difficult to address fiscal and social needs. Policy priorities are therefore mainly of structural nature. They include boosting productivity and employment as well as strengthening fiscal, external, and financial sector buffers—particularly in the context of a challenging global environment. Real gross domestic product is expected to expand by 2–2.5 percent in 2025, in line with its potential. Inflation is projected to return to the 3-percent target in early 2026, after the impact of the significant electricity tariff hikes between June 2024 and early 2025 subsides. External risks remain elevated. A cautious data dependent approach to the Expediting investment permit applications and environmental evaluations, fostering an environment for the development of new industries, facilitating R&D, and increasing female labor participation are vital for boosting potential growth.
Keywords:
input-output linkage; housing wealth effect; growth slowdown; real estate sector; risk assessment; Pension spending; Exports; Mortgages; Loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Productivity Shocks to the Pharmaceutical Sector and the Danish Economy: Denmark
Kotaro Ishi
The pharmaceutical industry in Denmark has grown rapidly in recent years. This paper discusses the macroeconomic impact of the pharmaceutical sector. The analysis focuses on Novo Nordisk, the leading pharmaceutical company in Denmark, and its productivity impact on the rest of the economy. Empirical evidence suggests only weak correlations between productivity shocks at Novo Nordisk and overall economic growth, as well as between Novo Nordisk’s productivity and that of other firms. However, we find evidence of a significant within-industry spillover effect in the pharmaceutical sector.
Keywords:
Productivity; spillovers; pharmaceutical; productivity shock; Novo Nordisk's productivity; pharmaceutical industry in Denmark; shocks to Novo Nordisk; macroeconomic impact; Labor productivity; Exports; Employment; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper assesses recent developments in Latvia’s competitiveness and productivity in the context of Baltic economies. Latvia’s export market share has declined in recent years reflecting weakening external demand and the effects of EU trade sanctions, but only limited loss of competitiveness. Latvia faces weakening competitiveness. Latvia’s real effective exchange rate appreciation in recent years has been greater than that implied by its productivity trend, so the economy faces a narrowing competitiveness buffer. Latvia’s total factor productivity growth boost post-global financial crisis is unlikely to be sustained without structural reforms and efforts to increase capital investment. A decade-long weak investment, large infrastructure gaps, aging and emigration, and insufficient accumulation in skills weigh on Latvia’s productivity growth and competitiveness. These also pose risks that Lavia could be caught in a middle-income trap with low growth and slow convergence to euro area income level. Therefore, Latvia requires significantly higher investment for sustained convergence. In order to preserve Latvia’s competitiveness and build more resilience against future shocks, it is key to promote productivity growth via structural reforms and capital investment. Boosting productivity is also needed to meet challenges presented from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the ongoing transitions to sustain income convergence.
Keywords:
labor productivity growth; D. allocative efficiency; export share decline; D. Latvia's productivity growth; B. CSA Decomposition; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Labor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Baltics; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown to the Singapore Economy: Singapore
Kodjovi M. Eklou
,
Shujaat Khan
, and
Margaux MacDonald
This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects. Utilizing multi-region input-output tables, empirical estimates, and the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, it identifies significant sectoral and aggregate impacts, particularly in electrical and machinery manufacturing, petrochemicals, and financial services. The analysis underscores the vulnerability of Singapore's economy to shifts in Chinese demand and productivity, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring and strategic adaptation to mitigate potential risks associated with China's slowdown.
Keywords:
China; ASEAN; Growth Spillovers; Input-output table; Local projections; General equilibrium model; Global value chains; IMF China growth projection; China growth shock; Singapore economy; growth slowdown; growth shock; Spillovers; Exports; Productivity; Southeast Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper explores structural reforms to achieve high-income status in Indonesia. Indonesia aims to achieve high-income status by 2045. Efforts are needed to strengthen the quality of Indonesia's infrastructure and logistics, its business environment and lay the ground for an infrastructure base capable of supporting stronger economic activity. Achieving inclusive growth will require to minimizing human development gaps. This includes efforts to enhance heath, reduce labor vulnerability and informality, and gender gaps, so as to level up living conditions broadly, without dividing the population between those gaining from stronger growth and those left behind. The results indicate that external sector regulation and economic openness, governance, business regulation and human development areas should be implemented in priority, as they would enhance inclusiveness and support a leveling up of living standards for the country as a whole. Moreover, these reforms have been shown to be complementary and likely to deliver stronger output effects when bundled together.
Keywords:
firm performance; medium enterprise; enterprises landscape; firms' access; estimation result; financing barrier; Export diversification; Exports; Structural reforms; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explains Estonia’s recent losses of export market shares. Estonia’s export market share has fallen sharply, signalling that exporters have difficulties to keep up with foreign competition. While the immediate cause of this decline can be traced back to an adverse combination of external shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine, signs of faltering export performance surfaced already in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and thus predate recent shocks. Using a constant share decomposition, this paper shows that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, a significant portion of the decline in Estonia’s export share can be attributed to the ‘intensive margin’, i.e., a shrinking share of Estonia’s exports in the main destination markets—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. A few high-level policy implications can be drawn. Addressing the erosion of external competitiveness will require structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, removing impediment to a structural transformation of the economy toward more technologically intensive and higher value-added products and services, as well as efforts to ensure that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. By addressing these underlying challenges, Estonia can restore external competitiveness and ensure continued convergence toward the income levels of EU most advanced economies and Nordic neighbors.
Keywords:
labor market liberalization; Within-Sector allocative efficiency; export market share; export share decline; TFP dynamics; Estonia's government spending; tax revenue-to-GDP ratio; Total factor productivity; Exports; Capital adequacy requirements; Productivity; Baltics; Global; Europe