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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights trends, impacts, and policy implications in Burkina Faso. Regional insecurity has also created increased cross-border displacement, both into and out of Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso has devised several policy responses, including in cooperation with international partners. Despite these measures, the persistent crisis of forced displacement means that the need for humanitarian assistance remains. A successful strategy for addressing the displacement crisis should be broad-based in terms of partners and approaches. Given the country's economic and financial challenges, an in-depth understanding is needed of the economic impact of forced displacement and possible solutions. In other countries, studies show positive economic outcomes to host regions of forced displacement. The inclusion of forced displaced persons in the Unified Social Register and national social nets programs would facilitate the implementation of assistance and, along with other national repositories help improve urban management and budget planning.
Keywords:
growth experience; C. socio-economic Impact; C. policy response; impact of climate change; agriculture productivity; Climate change; Productivity; Food security; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; yield; Guatemala; food inflation; inflation headline inflation; inflation expectation; macroeconomic fundamentals; commodity price inflation; nominal interest rate; Financial inclusion; Inflation; Financial sector development; Credit; Global; Central America; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Quality of the Recent High-Growth Episode in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Marcelo Martinez
and
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
The paper explores the quality of the recent high-growth episode in sub-Saharan Africa by examining the following two questions: (i) what has been the nature and pattern of SSA growth over the past 15 years and how does it compare with previous episodes? (ii) has this growth had an impact on socially desirable outcomes, for example, improvements in health, education and poverty indicators? To do this, the paper first examines various aspects of the fundamentals of growth in SSA—levels, volatility, sources, etc.—according to various country analytical groupings. Second, it explores the extent to which the growth has been accompanied by improvements in social indicators. The paper finds that the quality of growth in SSA over the past 15 years has unambiguously improved, although progress in social indicators has been uneven.
Keywords:
WP; Real GDP growth; health outcome; TFP improvement; poverty-growth nexus; Quality of growth; social indicators; sub-Saharan Africa; income gain; per capita income; mortality rate; poverty-reducing pattern; gross investment; poverty outcome; Capita Real GDP growth; physical capital; poverty indicator; income difference; Total factor productivity; Personal income; Poverty reduction; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
Peru’s fiscal framework embedded in the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law (FRTL) has proved to be effective in reducing debt. The FRTL embodies some countercyclical elements in response to output or commodity price shocks. The combination of a provision for a moderate deficit on the downside, and a current expenditure cap on the upside, allows for some countercyclical policy. It still has pockets of procyclicality in the face of large shocks to output or commodity prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Peru; commodity price; GDP; central bank; poverty reduction; BoE executive; financial system; comparative advantage; trend output; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Fiscal stance; Commodity prices; Global; Africa; Caribbean
Cover Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa
Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa
Lessons from Mozambique
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
and
Mr. Jean A. P. Clément

Abstract

Mozambique is an economic success story in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its remarkable achievements offer valuable lessons to other low-income countries in a post-stabilization economic phase, including how they can efficiently manage a scaling up of foreign aid aimed at poverty reduction. Of special interest to other sub-Saharan countries are the book's discussions of Mozambique's progress toward consolidating macroeconomic and financial stability, and the challenges it faces in ensuring long-term sustainability, creating a virtuous cycle of natural resource use, and implementing second-generation structural reforms to sustain its growth. This book also provides a summary of the most recent research on issues related to post-stabilization economics in SSA.

Keywords:
BOOK; Mozambique; exchange rate; productivity; poverty; income; poverty reduction; monetary management; transmission mechanism; government implementation; crop income; Total factor productivity; Real exchange rates; Exports; Exchange rates; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Southern Africa; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Republic: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Preparation Status Report: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
The status report on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) of the Central African Republic showed substantial progress. IMF staff welcomed peace and security consolidation and strong macroeconomic framework under the economic program. They emphasized the need for strengthening the linkages between some of the sectoral and national strategies. They stressed the need for a strategy for monitoring and evaluation of the system, and financing to implement the strategy. They concur that success of the PRSP will be a challenge amidst security issues and financial constraints.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Poverty ReductionStrategy Paper; preparation progress status report; constraint; objectives inthe PRSP; draft PRSP; preparation process; poverty reduction strategy paper; Poverty reduction strategy; Capacity utilization; Macro-fiscal framework; Concessional external borrowing
Cover IMF Working Papers
Solow Versus Harrod-Domar: Reexamining the Aid Costs of the First Millennium Development Goal
Carl-Johan Dalgaard
and
Mr. Lennart Erickson
The First Millennium Development Goal (MDG#1) is to cut the fraction of global population living on less than one dollar per day in half, by 2015. Foreign aid financed investments may contribute to the attainment of this goal. But how much can aid be reasonably expected to accomplish? A widespread calibration approach to answering this question is to employ the so-called development planning technique, which has the Harrod-Domar growth model at its base. Two particularly problematic assumptions in this sort of analysis are the absence of diminishing returns to capital input and an infinite speed of adjustment to steady state after a shock to the economy. We remove both of these assumptions by employing a Solow model as an organizing framework for an otherwise similar analysis. We find that in order to successfully meet the MDG#1 in the context of the currently proposed aid flows, these flows will have to be accompanied by either an acceleration in the underlying productivity growth rate or a major boost to domestic savings and investment in sub-Saharan Africa. In the absence of such changes in the economic environment, the MDG#1 is unlikely to be reached.
Keywords:
WP; production function; mover accent; capital goods
Cover Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Mr. Kevin J Carey
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; country; policy; growth rate; Dem. rep.; sub-Saharan Africa data; conflict country; World Bank's country policy; sub-Saharan Africa country; growth opportunity; country case studies; Income inequality; Poverty reduction; Total factor productivity; Inclusive growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Aid Policy and Sources of Poverty: A Quantitative Framework
Mr. Alex Mourmouras
and
Mr. Peter Rangazas
The econometric literature has been unable to establish a robust association between foreign aid and growth and poverty reduction. In this paper we argue that aid effectiveness must be assessed using methods that go beyond cross-country regressions. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of generating large income gaps between rich and poor countries. The model quantifies three sources of poverty: (i) lack of access to international capital, (ii) low schooling and high fertility (a poverty trap), and (iii) antigrowth domestic fiscal policy. We analyze policies designed to address each source of poverty and estimate and compare the aid cost of implementing the different policies. The policies differ dramatically in the extent and timing of their growth effects, and in the aid cost of their implementation.
Keywords:
WP; open economy; poverty trap; foreign aid policy; growth; poverty; schooling; fertility; capital mobility; worker productivity; fiscal policy difference; productivity variable; physical capital difference; B. worker productivity difference; worker productivity difference; physical capital accumulation; productivity gap; anti-growth fiscal policy; spreads saving; fiscal policy reform; saving flow; Capital productivity; Productivity; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tanzania’s Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty
Mr. Volker Treichel
Since 1995, Tanzania has made major progress in economic reform and macroeconomic stabilization, resulting in strong growth and low inflation. This paper reviews Tanzania's growth performance and prospects and assesses the impact of growth on poverty. It finds that growth has been increasingly driven by higher factor productivity and that a continuation of recent policies should allow Tanzania to grow above 5 percent a year over the medium term. Furthermore, it finds that growth since 1995 has resulted in a significant decline of poverty and that prospects are favorable for Tanzania to attain its objectives for reducing income poverty by 2015.
Keywords:
WP; Tanzania; economy; export; growth performance