Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Alexandre Sollaci
I investigate the aggregate effects of R&D tax credits in the US. Because it subsidizes R&D activity and because credit rates vary between states, this policy has both spatial and dynamic effects on the economy. To address this issue, I construct an endogenous growth model with spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration spillovers in innovation. Aggregate outcomes in this model are thus affected by the spatial distribution of the population in the economy, which is itself endogenous and reacts to policy. I use this framework to identify a set of local R&D subsidies that maximize aggregate welfare.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the distributional effects of tax reforms in Morocco. Overall, the performance of Morocco’s tax system is satisfactory, but there is scope to strengthen it and make it more equitable and less distortive. Morocco would benefit from a comprehensive and well explained tax reform strategy aiming to reduce inequality and boost growth. For this, a recommended tax reform package should combine several key components, for example, reducing tax exemptions, raising property tax, and lowering corporate tax rates. At the same time, the targeting of social programs should be strengthened. Such a reform approach would protect the most vulnerable and help broaden the tax base, remove tax distortions, and better share the tax burden.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Belgium is gaining momentum, with real GDP growth expected to approach 2 percent in 2018 after an estimated 1.7 percent in 2017. It is driven by strong investment and solid consumption growth, and supported by favorable financial conditions as well as a strengthening recovery throughout Europe. Employment growth has picked up, thanks in part to past reform efforts. The fiscal position has improved, reflecting a mix of cyclical, structural, and one-off factors. The medium-term outlook, however, remains subdued in the absence of further structural reforms to raise potential growth, and subject to both external and domestic risks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the competitiveness and wage bargaining reform in Italy. The growth of Italian exports has lagged that of euro area peers. Wages are set at the sectoral level and extended nationally. However, they do not respond well to firm-specific productivity, regional disparities, or skill mismatches. Nominally rigid wages have also implied adjustment through lower profits and employment. The analysis also suggests substantial gains from moving from sectoral- to firm-level wage setting of at least 3.5 percentage points, lower unemployment (or higher employment) rate and a notable improvement in Italy’s competitiveness over the medium term.
Bengt Petersson
,
Rodrigo Mariscal
, and
Kotaro Ishi
How important are female workers for economic growth? This paper presents empirical evidence that an increase in female labor force participation is positively associated with labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 10 Canadian provinces over 1990–2015, we found that a 1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation among women with high educational attainment would raise Canada’s overall labor productivity growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point a year. This suggests that if the current gap of 7 percentage points between male and female labor force participation with high educational attainment were eliminated, the level of real GDP could be about 4 percent higher today. The government has appropriately stepped up its efforts to improve gender equality, as part of its growth strategy. In particular, the government’s plan to expand access to affordable child care is a positive step. However, we argue that to maximize the policy outcome given a budget constraint, provision of subsidized child care—including publicly funded child care spaces—should be better targeted to working parents.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper aims to determine how much of the economic slowdown of Albania is owing to cyclical conditions and how much to a reduction in potential growth. The analysis shows that average growth in 2009–14 dropped by 3.2 percentage points relative to 1997–2008, of which 2.8 percentage points are due to lower potential growth. Albania has significant potential to improve its export competitiveness. However, Albania’s competitiveness has shown narrow improvements over the past five years, with weak productivity growth and continued concentration in low-skilled labor-intensive sectors with limited value added. This paper also explores the factors underpinning Albania’s relatively low level of general government revenues.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines labor productivity in Israel. Israel’s GDP per capita is low relative to the United States despite high labor input, as labor productivity is low. Catch-up of labor productivity to the United States stopped in the 1980s and relative labor productivity has since declined. Low labor productivity is the result of a low capital-to-labor ratio—kept low by high employment growth—and low total factor productivity growth. The latter may reflect lack of competition and product market restrictions, which are among the highest in advanced economies. Boosting competition, lowering product-market restrictions, and improving the quality of education and infrastructure would help boost productivity.
Ms. Elva Bova
,
Ms. Christina Kolerus
, and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper examines the impact of fiscal policy on employment through the lenses of Okun’s Law. Looking at the panel of OECD countries over the past three decades, we find that fiscal policy can affect employment beyond the impact it is traditionally assumed to exert through the output multiplier. In particular, this impact is found to be effective for most items of current discretionary expenditure and for corporate income taxes and social security contributions. Okun’s Law is found to be stable under almost all model specifications, but higher spending on subsidies and lower social security contributions can amplify the impact of the output gap on employment gaps.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Spain’s sustainable growth rate. It sheds some light on Spain’s medium-term growth prospects by looking into the key factors driving potential growth, both in the past and likely in the future, and international experience of countries in the aftermath of financial crisis. The paper suggests Spain is likely to face a long period of moderate growth (about 1½–2 percent) and high unemployment, but policy action—especially that directed toward reducing structural unemployment and raising productivity—could lead to much better outcomes.