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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; yield; Guatemala; food inflation; inflation headline inflation; inflation expectation; macroeconomic fundamentals; commodity price inflation; nominal interest rate; Financial inclusion; Inflation; Financial sector development; Credit; Global; Central America; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Guatemala; output gap help; debtor position; net; fund staff estimate; monetary policy rate; creditor position; Potential output; Basel III; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Efficiency amid Foreign Entry: Evidence from the Central American Region
Torsten Wezel
This paper investigates the efficiency of domestic and foreign banks in the Central American region during 2002-07. Using two main empirical approaches, Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis, the paper finds that foreign banks are not necessarily more efficient than their domestic counterparts. If anything, the regional banks that were acquired by global banks in a wave of acquisitions during 2005-07 can keep up with the local institutions. The efficiency of these acquired banks, however, is shown to have dropped during the acquisition year, recovering only slightly thereafter. Finally, it is important to account for the environment in which banks operate, as country-, sector- and firm-specific characteristics are found to have a considerable influence on bank efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; technical efficiency; percentage; takeover
Cover América Central
América Central
Crecimiento económico e integración
Mr. Alfred Schipke
and
Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

¿Cómo consolidar los avances logrados con tanto esfuerzo, acrecentar la capacidad de resistencia a los shocks y alcanzar un mayor crecimiento económico a fin de reducir la pobreza? Estos son los desafíos que se le presentan en el camino a América Central en el proceso de recuperación de la estabilidad macroeconómica. Este estudio analiza las políticas de América Central en los sectores real, fiscal, monetario y financiero a nivel regional, comenzando por un análisis del crecimiento y de las implicaciones macroeconómicas de las remesas. Seguidamente se abordan la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de pensiones, el desarrollo del sistema financiero, las vulnerabilidades de la deuda soberana y las formas de apoyar el avance en la reducción de la inflación fortaleciendo la credibilidad de los bancos centrales.

Keywords:
OP; country; debt; government
Cover Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Mr. Alfred Schipke
and
Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America’s real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.

Keywords:
OP; country; debt; government; Central America-Panama; debt structure; Central America-Chile; Central America-Dominican Republic; retirement age; productivity-enhancing reform; foreign currency debt; productivity performance; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Inflation; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; Global