Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 41 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Chasing the Dream: Industry-Level Productivity Developments in Europe
Serhan Cevik
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries are lagging behind in productivity growth, with significant productivity gaps across industries. In this study, we use comparable industry-level data to explore the patterns and sources of total factor productivity (TFP) growth across 28 countries in Europe over the period 1995–2020. Our empirical results highlight four main points: (i) TFP growth is driven largely by the extent to which countries are involved in scientific and technological innovation as the leader country or benefiting from stronger knowledge spillovers; (ii) the technological gap is associated with TFP growth as countries move towards the technological frontier by adopting new innovations and technologies; (iii) increased investment in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and research and development (R&D) contributes significantly to higher TFP growth; and (iv)the impact of human capital tends to be stronger when a country is closer to the technological frontier. The core findings of this study call for policy measures and structural reforms to promote innovation and facilitate the diffusion of new and existing technologies across Europe.
Keywords:
Total factor productivity; technology; R&D; innovation; human capital; Europe; productivity development; developments in Europe; core finding; TFP slowdown; TFP difference; Productivity; Capital spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Digitalization During the COVID-19 Crisis: Implications for Productivity and Labor Markets in Advanced Economies
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Andrea Medici
,
Myrto Oikonomou
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
,
Jiaming Soh
, and
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
Digitalization induced by the pandemic was seen both as a possible silver-lining from the crisis that could increase longer-term productivity and a risk for further labor market inequality between digital and non-digital workers. The note shows that the pandemic accelerated digitalization and triggered a partial catch-up by less digitalized entities in advanced economies. Higher digitalization levels shielded substantially productivity and hours worked during the crisis. However, the extent to which the pandemic-induced digitalization led to structural change in the economy is less clear. Less digitalized sectors have rebounded more strongly, albeit after stronger declines, and while workers in digital occupations were more shielded from the crisis, there does not appear to be a structural change in the composition of labor demand. Meanwhile, shifts in labor supply are more likely to be permanent, driven by the increase in working from home.
Keywords:
Digitalization; COVID-19; labor market; productivity; productivity regression analysis; digitalization level; longer-term productivity; pandemic-induced digitalization; labor market tightness; Labor productivity; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Why U.S. Immigration Matters for the Global Advancement of Science
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Patrick Gaulé
, and
Geoff Smith
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
Keywords:
Immigration; Science; Talent; Universities; WP; IMO medalist; migrants to the U.S.; IMO participant; productivity regression; IMO point; Migration; Productivity; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?
Jelle Barkema
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
, and
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap estimates shows a firm negative skew, in line with previous regional studies, as well as frequent historical revisions to output gap estimates. Secondly, when looking at the co-movement of output gap estimates and realized measures of slack, a positive, but limited, association is found between the two. Thirdly, text analysis techniques are deployed to assess how estimates of output gaps are used in Fund surveillance. The results reveal no strong bearing of output gap estimates on the coverage of the concept or direction of policy advice. The results suggest the need for continued caution in relying on output gaps for real-time policymaking and policy assessment.
Keywords:
Output gaps; monetary policy; fiscal policy; WP; output gap estimate; delta real-time output gap; output gap uncertainty; output gaps discussion; output gap coverage; output gap measurement error; overestimated output gap; business cycles; underestimated output gap; Output gap; Potential output; Inflation; Current account balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intangible Investment and Low Inflation: A Framework and Some Evidence
Mr. Subir Lall
and
Mr. Li Zeng
Intangible investment is growing as a share of economic activity. We present a simple framework incorporating its distinguishing characteristic of generally greater scalability and lower marginal costs than tangible investment. We show evidence that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation and a flattening of the Phillips curve. This framework also highlights the channels through which technological change, a large constituent of intangible investment, may be leading to wage stagnation and greater market concentration.
Keywords:
WP; intangible investment; investment; economy; Technological change; inflation; unemployment; market concentration; AS-AD framework; inflation target; import price inflation; aggregate supply supply curve; Intangible capital; Inflation targeting; Output gap; Import prices; Global; returns to scale
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area
Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold
,
Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu
,
H. Elif Ture
,
Hou Wang
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area central fiscal capacity (CFC) that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries that are used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case an exceptionally large shock exhausts the fund’s assets. To address moral hazard risks, transfers from the CFC—beyond a country’s own net contributions—would be conditional on compliance with the EU fiscal rules. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.
Keywords:
SDN; moving average; Euro Area; Fiscal Integration; Macroeconomic Stabilization; CFC transfer; debt group; asset target; CFC assets; shock scenario; trend unemployment rate; aggregate CFC contribution target; CFC asset; deviation trigger; stabilization power; Unemployment rate; Fiscal rules; Return on investment; Output gap; Fiscal stabilization; Global; CFC proposal; inflation impact; usage premium; calibrating contribution; Stress testing
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
The age-distribution of Europe’s workforce has shifted towards older workers over the past few decades, a process expected to accelerate in the years ahead.. This paper studies the effect of the aging of the workforce on labor productivity, identifies the main transmission channels, and examines what policies might mitigate the effects of aging. We find that workforce aging reduces growth in labor productivity, mainly through its negative effect on TFP growth. Projected workforce aging could reduce TFP growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points every year over the next two decades. A variety of policies could ameliorate this effect.
Keywords:
WP; workforce; growth; Workforce Aging; Productivity; Policies; labor market; effect of workforce; workforce training; workforce skill; age group; aging workforce; workforce share; Aging; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - November 16, 2016
International Monetary Fund
This Work Program (WP) translates the policy priorities and strategic directions laid out in the Fall 2016 Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next six-twelve months. The Managing Director’s GPA called on members to use a balanced mix of all policy tools to revive demand and raise productivity, and ensure that gains from technology and globalization are shared more broadly. The GPA also warned against retreating from multilateralism at a time when cooperation and coordination are critical. It outlined how the Fund would support the membership by helping policymakers identify policy space and enhance resilience; assisting in understanding and tackling the underlying causes of low productivity growth; supporting members to expand economic opportunities—including by ensuring adequate and effective safety nets; and advocating for multilateralism that works for all. Where the work extends beyond traditional areas, the WP will focus on issues with a macro-economic impact that are systemically important or relevant for many and amenable to change through economic policies.
Keywords:
PP; fund; policy; policy priority; tailored policy advice; fund program; fund agenda; Policy space; MCP Policy; fund work; income position; Financial safety nets; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Fifth and Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Background: In February 2014, the Executive Board approved a three-year Extended Arrangement with access equivalent to SDR 295.42 million (492.4 percent of quota). So far, four purchases totaling the equivalent of SDR 123.1 million have been made, and another one equivalent to SDR 57.76 million will be made available upon completion of the fifth and sixth reviews. Recent Economic Developments: Economic recovery is underway, but growth remains below potential and inflationary pressures are limited. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have started declining but are still high, and credit growth remains sluggish despite substantial monetary easing.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; disinflation pressure; economy; investment growth; widening output gap; growth; rate; executive board's decision; market confidence; Arrears; Europe; Global