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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; EU Green deal; EU greenhouse gases; zombie firm; France's GHG emission contribution; productivity slowdown
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Portugal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper describes financial conditions and growth at risk in Portugal. The macro-finance literature and recent experience provide compelling evidence that financial imbalances grow in good times, creating downside risks to economic growth. The analysis highlights the importance of the price of risk, leverage and credit growth as leading indicators of risks to gross domestic product growth. The price of risk appears to provide the most powerful signal in the short term, while credit aggregates are the most significant predictor in the medium term. This finding is consistent with the volatility paradox and is line with other empirical studies. The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model suggests contained downside risks to Portugal’s growth projections at the current juncture based on financial conditions data, but credit growth should continue to be monitored given still high leverage. The moderate risk to growth identified by the GaR model reflects the impact of low credit spreads and volatility in the financial markets, in their turn reflecting the prevailing policy mix. Still, a repricing of risks and other shocks could be magnified by the still-high leverage, and lead to less favorable growth outcomes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Portugal; capital stock; debt; IMF staff calculation; current account adjustment; investment ratio; PPPs investment; indicators of infrastructure quality; capital spending-to-GDP ratio; Current account; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Real effective exchange rates; Solvency; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Spain: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Spain’s sustainable growth rate. It sheds some light on Spain’s medium-term growth prospects by looking into the key factors driving potential growth, both in the past and likely in the future, and international experience of countries in the aftermath of financial crisis. The paper suggests Spain is likely to face a long period of moderate growth (about 1½–2 percent) and high unemployment, but policy action—especially that directed toward reducing structural unemployment and raising productivity—could lead to much better outcomes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; debt; creditor; insolvency; wage; insolvency regime; restructuring process; productivity growth; capital deepening; insolvency proceeding; Social security contributions; Debt restructuring; Solvency; Potential output; Productivity; Europe; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; labor market; output gap estimate; crisis; unemployment gap; vocational education; output gap in Latvia; Output gap; Potential output; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan
Mr. Se-Jik Kim
This paper presents a framework for quantitatively evaluating the macroeconomic effects of corporate restructuring and applies it to Japan. Using firm-level financial statement data, it estimates total factor productivity (TFP) of individual Japanese firms. Given the estimated distribution of productivity across firms, the paper simulates the effect of optimal restructuring, that is, reallocation of resources from less-productive firms to more-productive ones, on the dynamic path of aggregate output. The results show that the benefits of restructuring could substantially exceed the costs.
Keywords:
WP; firm; financial statement data; th firm; Corporate restructuring; total factor productivity; macro effects; Japan; restructured firm; firm well; percent firm; firms in Japan; distribution of productivity; Productivity; Labor share; Personal income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bailout and Conglomeration
Mr. Se-Jik Kim
The paper suggests that when firms differ stochastically in their productivity, a bank may find it optimal not to bail out the failed nonconglomerate firms at all, but to bail out conglomerates fully. Expectation of such bailout policy may encourage risk-averse firms to join a conglomerate to minimize the risk of liquidation. Furthermore, in case of private information, bad firms follow good firms’ decision on conglomeration to hide their type. Finally, the paper discusses the impact of conglomeration on the debt-equity ratio and the expansion of existing conglomerates through mergers and acquisitions.
Keywords:
WP; total output; debt-equity ratio