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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Egypt, Arab Republic of x
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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda
Mr. Benedicte Baduel
,
Carolin Geginat
, and
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
This paper examines the extent to which firms in selected MENA countries reported being constrained by the business environment around the time of the Arab Spring and the extent to which these constraints affected their employment performance. The results suggest that small firms in MENA faced more structural constraints than similar firms in other regions. We also find that MENA firms’ weaker job creation can be explained in great part by the macroeconomic environment and structural constraints. Low GDP growth, falling external competitiveness, corruption, lack of access to finance and poor access to electricity are found to explain a significant part of the lack of employment growth in MENA firms compared to their peers.
Keywords:
WP; employment growth; World Bank enterprises survey; enterprise survey; firms' characteristic; credit constraint; employment performance; firm exit; firms in Mena; medium-sized firm; SMEs; MENA; Arab Countries in Transition; private sector; employment; employment creation; World Bank enterprise survey; micro firm; Job creation; Business environment; Labor productivity; Electricity; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications
Mr. Kenji Moriyama
This paper investigates the degree of inflation inertia in Egypt and its determinants using the cross country data consisting of over 100 countries. Medium-unbiased estimator of inflation inertia in Egypt is high compared to other countries, as indicated by its location around the upper quartile among the sample. The cross country analysis indicates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and fiscal consolidation are a key to reduce inflation inertia and the costs of disinflation.
Keywords:
WP; inflation inertia; Inflation; monetary policy; inflation targeting monetary policy framework; shock volatility; output gap persistency; emerging market; inflation persistency; inflation expectation; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Disinflation; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt: Spillovers, Inflation Dynamics, and Implications for Monetary Policy
Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
and
Mr. Kenji Moriyama
This paper estimates a small open economy model for Egypt to analyze inflation, output dynamics and monetary policy during 2005-2010. The interest rate channel is found to be relatively weak in Egypt, complicating the use of interest rates as the immediate target of monetary policy. However, the paper also finds a significant level of persistence in the policy rate, making monetary policy pro-cyclical. More active use of interest rate policy, measures to improve domestic debt markets and a gradual move towards inflation targeting can help support a successful disinflation strategy for Egypt.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; real interest rate; Small open economy model; monetary policy; transmission mechanism; Phillips curve; interest rate channel; output gap evolution; inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; inflation inertia; open economy; output gap equation; Output gap; Real interest rates; Inflation; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth. The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries. In GCC countries, where oil revenues are significant, large governments appear to have been a key factor stifling private-sector growth and impeding diversification. In other MENA countries poor institutional quality has held back growth. Political instability is also shown to have played a role. While the MENA region's growth differential with east Asia is explained well in the 1980s, this is less so in the 1990s.
Keywords:
WP; country; Mena; oil country; government; GCC; economic growth; Middle East and North Africa; oil; institutions; conflicts; MENA country; growth differential; GCC country; MENA subgroup; Total factor productivity; Income; Terms of trade; Government consumption; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 32, Issue 23
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization; IMF managing director de Rato; IMF representative; IMF publication service; mission chief; Capital inflows; Distressed assets; Productivity; Trade liberalization; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Europe; Mekong
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies
Amer Bisat
Sustaining a high rate of economic growth is the major policy issue facing the Arab economies. A detailed analysis of growth, investment, and savings for the period 1971-96, including through a growth accounting exercise, shows that increasing long-run growth requires improvements in both investment and domestic savings. In the past, the Arab region’s growth was overly reliant on volatile external sources of funding, and total factor productivity growth was too low. The paper discusses the policy priorities to overcome the legacy of poor growth.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; capital share; TFP measure; savings-investment balance; investment performance; Growth; Investment; Savings; Growth Accounting; Arab; Middle East and North Africa; sound investment decision; private sector investment; Total factor productivity; Domestic savings; East Asia
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 1997
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; policy; country; inflation; wage; productivity growth; third world state; sound policy environment; responsiveness to the needs; unemployment-price inflation relationship; policy reform; price ratio; Productivity; Non-renewable resources; Currencies; Pensions; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Global; Southern Africa; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment and Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Amer Bisat
,
Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian
,
Mr. Mahmoud El-Gamal
, and
Mr. Francesco P Mongelli
The paper considers investment and growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Notwithstanding cross-country differences, investment as a whole has been too low, too heavily tilted toward the public sector, too highly dependent on external influences, and less productive than in many other regions. Improving the region’s investment performance is critical if policymakers are to succeed in increasing the region’s economic growth rate. After discussing the relationship between investment and growth, the paper analyzes the investment responsiveness of various countries in the region and notes the policy priorities for strengthening the basis for rapid and sustained economic growth.
Keywords:
WP; MENA country; investment responsiveness; MENA region; MENA investment; investment performance; GDP ratio; investment challenge; investment decision; Stocks; Private investment; Capital productivity; Foreign direct investment; Public investment spending; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Asia and Pacific