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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 100 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Monetary Policy Issues in the UK: United Kingdom
Agnese Carella
,
Ruo Chen
,
Katherine Dai
,
Gloria Li
,
Ruy Lama
, and
Roland Meeks
After hiking rates 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August 2023 to arrest above-target inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates at 5.25 percent since then. As the BoE prepares for easing, this paper examines three concurrent monetary policy questions: (a) how have the macroeconomic and financial effects of BoE monetary tightening during the current cycle compared with experiences in other major advanced economies (AEs), and with previous UK tightening cycles; (b) what is the impact of US Fed decisions on UK monetary transmission, and the attendant implications thereof for BoE communications; and (c) how do model-based predictions of UK monetary policy paths (which seek to stabilize inflation and the output gap) compare with staff’s recommended path in the 2024 Article IV consultation. We find that (a) monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes (and experiences in other major AEs), with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages; (b) an outsized impact of Fed announcements on UK financial markets places a premium on BoE communications in a context where the BoE may diverge from the Fed; and (c) optimal rate path predictions are close to staff’s recommended path, although if the BoE attached a high weight to concerns about a prolonged period of above-target inflation leading to de-anchoring of inflation expectations, a slower pace of cuts would be warranted. A technical assistance mission from the IMF's Statistics Department visited Cambodia during April 10-21, 2023, to support the authorities in continuing to improve the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS).
Keywords:
Monetary policy; monetary transmission; central bank communications; BoE communications; monetary policy issue; path prediction; issues in the UK; Fed announcement; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Spillovers; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of Lesotho: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on decomposing the public-private sector wage differential in Lesotho. Lesotho’s public wage bill is significantly higher than in other countries in the region. This paper takes a closer look at the civil service wage bill and examines public sector wage premium. It provides an overview of public sector employment and compensation, estimates, explores drivers of the wage premium between the public and private sectors, and conducts a decomposition of the public-private wage gap. The upward inertia in the public wage bill has been gradually crowding out all other government spending. Containing the wage bill is essential to ensure fiscal sustainability and improve income distribution. The upward inertia in the public wage bill has been gradually crowding out all other government spending. Containing the wage bill is essential to ensure fiscal sustainability and improve income distribution. Public sector employment should be reduced and managed using a combination of essential hiring, natural attrition, and staff redeployment.
Keywords:
wage distribution; wage premium; D. policy implication; private sector development; wage bill; Wages; Public sector wages; Government wage bill; Public sector; Civil service; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on recalibrating the coronavirus disease (COVID) strategy in the People’s Republic of China. Successfully containing outbreaks also supported the gradual transition to more targeted and flexible containment measures, refining the overall strategy in line with the evolution of the pandemic. In late 2022, the authorities started easing COVID containment policies notwithstanding ongoing spikes in infections. Even though the economy bounced back quickly from the 2020 outbreaks, the recovery of private consumption has been lagging—in part as a result of the need for recurring lockdowns and elevated uncertainty. Throughout 2022, the emergence of more transmissible variants put the zero-COVID strategy to test and outbreaks have significantly hurt domestic economic activity. An immediate withdrawal of all nonpharmaceutical interventions could have severe health consequences, given the relatively lower level of vaccination for the most vulnerable, a possible lack of antiviral treatments, and still limited medical capacities.
Keywords:
green finance landscape; C. power market; market reform; policy initiative; E. Policy implication; Climate finance; Credit; Greenhouse gas emissions; Total factor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel Survey
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
,
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
,
Thuy Dinh Pham
,
Nga Huong Phi
,
Duong Thuy Nguyen
, and
Tuan Danh Duong
Using a unique representative panel survey of Vietnamese enterprises in 2020, we find that the pandemic and associated government support package had a heterogenous impact across firms. The government support package, particularly tax cuts and deferrals, helped alleviate short term stress, but tight ineligibility criteria and cumbersome procedures impacted take-up. Econometric analysis suggests that the likelihood of accessing support was associated with firm size, with larger firms more likely to receive support compared to smaller firms, even after controlling for sector, firm ownership and financial health. Credit support was effective in alleviating liquidity constraints and allaying firm pessimism only for large firms. Interestingly, firms experiencing sales losses and those with lower pre-crisis productivity were more likely to resort to digitalization, suggesting that the pandemic could help narrow productivity gaps.
Keywords:
COVID-19; policy support; firms’ coping strategies; digitalization; coping strategy; government support package; credit support; firm pessimism; self-coping strategy; Credit; Labor costs; Productivity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
G. climate change policy priority; growth potential; A. climate change; dollarization indicator; climate change institution; Climate change; Monetary base; Currencies; Exchange rates; De-dollarization; Global; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fear Economy: A Theory of Output, Interest, and Safe Assets
Ruchir Agarwal
This paper presents a fear theory of the economy, based on the interplay between fear of rare disasters and the interest rate on safe assets. To do this, I study the macroeconomic consequences of government-administered interest rates in the neoclassical real business cycle model. When the government has the power to fix the safe real interest rate, the gap between the `sticky real safe rate' and the `neutral rate' can generate far-reaching aggregate distortions. When fear exogenously rises, the demand for safe assets rise and the neutral rate falls. If the central bank does not lower the safe rate by the same amount, savings rise leading to a decline in consumption and aggregate demand. The same mechanism works in reverse, when fear falls. Quantitatively, I show that a single fear factor can simultaneously (i) generate cross-correlations in output, labor, consumption, and investment consistent with the postwar US economy; and (ii) generates variation in equity prices, bond prices, and a large risk premium in line with the asset pricing data. Six novel insights emerge from the model: (1) actively regulating the safe interest rate (in both directions) can mitigate the fluctuations generated by fear cycles; (2) recessions will be deeper and longer when central banks accept the zero lower bound and are unwilling to use negative rates; (3) a commitment to use negative rates in recessions—even if never implemented—raises both the short- and long-run real neutral rates, and moderates the business cycle; (4) counter-cyclical fiscal policy can act as disaster insurance and be expansionary by reducing fear; (5) quantitative easing can be narrowly effective only when fear is high at the lower bound; and (6) when fear is high, especially at the lower bound, policies that boost productivity also help fight recessions.
Keywords:
fear; business cycles; interest; safe assets; fear economy; government-administered interest rates; fear theory; business cycle model; fear factor; Output gap; Consumption; Zero lower bound; Interest rate floor; Yield curve; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: The Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits
Alexandre Sollaci
I investigate the aggregate effects of R&D tax credits in the US. Because it subsidizes R&D activity and because credit rates vary between states, this policy has both spatial and dynamic effects on the economy. To address this issue, I construct an endogenous growth model with spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration spillovers in innovation. Aggregate outcomes in this model are thus affected by the spatial distribution of the population in the economy, which is itself endogenous and reacts to policy. I use this framework to identify a set of local R&D subsidies that maximize aggregate welfare.
Keywords:
agglomeration; innovation; R&D tax credits; R&D activity; R&D subsidy; R&D tax credit rate; aggregate outcome; Tax allowances; Credit ratings; Productivity; Wages; Global; elasticity of agglomeration; welfare effect; elasticity of congestion
Cover IMF Working Papers
India’s Banks: Lending to Productive Firms?
Siddharth George
,
Mr. Divya Kirti
,
Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
Capital misallocation is widely thought to be an important factor underpinning productivity and income gaps between advanced and emerging economies. This paper studies how well Indian banks allocate capital across firms with varying levels of productivity. The analysis reveals that the link between productivity and bank credit growth is weaker for firms with significant ties to public sector banks, especially in years when public sector banks represent a large share of new credit. Large flows of credit to unproductive firms represent important missed growth opportunities for more productive firms. These results suggest that measures to improve governance of public sector banks, potentially including privatization, would help reduce capital misallocation.
Keywords:
Productivity; bank lending; allocation of credit; capital misallocation; public sector bank; PSB dependence; PSB share; credit growth; Bank credit; Credit; Productivity; State-owned banks; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What's in the R- Stars for Korea?
Mr. Sohrab Rafiq
Korea’s stars tell of an economy saddled with a real neutral rate (r-star) that has declined significantly in recent decades and is currently below zero. This reflects a significant decline in trend growth, and two large financial crises that triggered significant shifts in the saving-investment balance. Larger fiscal deficits and frothy financial conditions since 2012 have helped offset rising demand for safer assets, preventing the neutral rate from falling further. Nonetheless, the fall in the neutral rate, coupled with its effects on asset returns, has complicated the task of monetary policy stabilization. Korea’s neutral rate is likely to remain low over the medium-term and could fall further, reflecting a structural savings-investment imbalance owing to declining productivity and a rotation in demographics increasing the demand for precautionary saving and convenience yield, and widening the capital risk premia. The COVID pandemic risks magnifying these trends.
Keywords:
Neutral Rate; Risk Premia; Convenience; Demographics; Savings; savings-investment imbalance; author's email; Korea rate expectations decomposition; real rate of interest; Real interest rates; Output gap; Inflation; Return on investment; Global