Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Olivier Bizimana
, and
Ananta Dua
This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.
Keywords:
Economic growth; structural reforms; potential output; productivity; multivariate filter; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; fiscal policy; Morocco; production function approach; Morocco's agenda; reform multiplier; structural reform agenda; case of Morocco; Total factor productivity; Labor force participation; Production growth; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17
Oya Celasun
,
Jungjin Lee
,
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
, and
Mr. Allan Timmermann
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.
Keywords:
Forecasting; forecasting bias and efficiency; WEO growth forecast; forecasting bias; Consensus Economics forecast; World Economic Outlook growth; forecast error; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Terms of trade; GDP forecasting; Output gap; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Caribbean; Middle East; North Africa; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with CESEE: Is Low Investment to Blame?
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
,
Alex Ho
, and
Vibha Nanda
In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer because of lower human capital levels and lower TFP—not because of a lower capital-output ratio. Cross-country differences of TFP in turn are associated with differences in human capital, governance and business climate indicators. We demonstrate that once levels of human capital and governance are taken into account, there is strong conditional cross-country convergence. Poor countries with high levels of human capital, governance or business climate indicators converge rapidly. Poor countries without those attributes do not. We show that low investment is the result of low TFP and thus GDP growth—not the cause.
Keywords:
WP; capital deepening; Economic Convergence; Growth; TFP; human capital; TFP growth; capital input; ratio rise; output indicator; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Capital productivity; Personal income; Business environment; Western Europe; South America; Global; East Asia; Southeast Asia; TFP difference; TFP level; levels in CESEE
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina
Ms. Lusine Lusinyan
The paper uses a supply-side framework based on a production function approach to assess the role of structural reforms in boosting long-term GDP growth in Argentina. The impact of product, labor, trade, and tax reforms on each supply-side channel—capital accumulation, labor utilization, and total factor productivity, proxied with an efficiency estimate—is assessed separately and then combined to derive the total impact on growth. The largest effect of structural reforms, involving regulatory changes that promote competition and facilitate flexible forms of employment, comes through the productivity/efficiency channel. Pro-competition regulation also improves labor utilization, while lower entry barriers and trade tariffs are important for capital accumulation. Structural reforms could have substantial effects on Argentina’s long-term GDP growth; for example, an ambitious reform effort to improve business regulatory environment would add 1–1½ percent to average annual growth of GDP.
Keywords:
WP; product market; Argentina; employment; product market reform; Economic growth; structural reforms; productivity; product market competition; labor market reforms; trade openness; employment rate; technical efficiency; labor market indicator; trade tariff; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; Capital productivity; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package
Michal Andrle
,
Mr. Alvar Kangur
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper seeks to quantify the net benefits of a comprehensive reform package aimed at addressing Italy’s inter-related challenges. Specifically, it simulates the growth and competitiveness effects of a package of fiscal, financial, wage bargaining, and other structural reforms. Credible implementation of such a package yields substantial mediumterm dividends at negligible near-term growth costs. Real GDP growth is estimated to be substantially higher over the medium term, while the real effective exchange rate depreciates notably.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; Italy; reform; real GDP; OECD estimate; growth; competitiveness; fiscal policy; wage bargaining; labor market reforms; product market reforms; banking sector; DSGE models; GIMF simulation; IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal; competitiveness gain; NPL ratio; Structural reforms; Nonperforming loans; Total factor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models: A Hitchhiker’s Guide
Mr. Evan C Tanner
Simple macroeconomic frameworks like the IS/LM have survived because they help us conceptualize complex problems while also providing ‘back of the envelope’ estimates of macroeconomic outcomes. Herein, a bare-bones New Keynesian extension of the IS/LM model yields solutions for core macro variables (output gap, inflation, interest rate, real exchange rate misvaluation)—expressed in percent. We then extend that standard model to also generate a corresponding set of demand-side elements—expressed in currency units. A key aim of the paper is to reconcile these two metrics in ways that also aid communication and intuition—including through IS/LM-style graphs.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate
Cover IEO Evaluation Report
IEO Evaluation Report
IMF Forecasts
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; forecast; IEO calculation; economist; country; IMF's spring; desk economist; forecasting process; IMF economist; GDP forecasting; Potential output; Current account balance; Current account imbalances; Fiscal stance; Global; Africa; forecast method; IMF program forecast; Economic recession
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Operating Time and total Factor Productivity Growth in France
Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone
and
Mr. Luc Everaert
Data on the weekly operating time of capital improve the measurement of effective capital input in production. The production function of the French business sector is found to be consistent with a Cobb-Douglas technology under constant returns to scale. Total factor productivity growth, estimated as an unobservable variable, has declined steadily since the late 1970s, but more slowly since 1994. During the 1990s, a secular increase in shift work raised the operating time of capital and began to contribute positively to growth, albeit only slightly.
Keywords:
WP; Capital stock utilization; total factor productivity; labor organization; TFP growth; Cobb-Douglas production function; business sector; capital service; output elasticity; A. production function specification; Productivity; Capacity utilization; Stocks