Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Informal Economy; Underground Econom x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Informality and Growth in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
Ghislain Afavi
,
Coffi Agossou
,
Mokhtar Benlamine
,
Ialy Rasoamanana
,
Nombàna Razafinisoa
, and
Ms. Veronique Salins
This chapter investigates the link between informality and growth in Madagascar and aims for a better understanding of the informal sector. It provides an analysis of the characteristics of informal production units and informal employment. Findings suggest that informality is a key feature of economic activity in Madagascar, and that informal production units are the main driver of employment with a deep concentration around self-employment. Overall, informality is associated with a lack of awareness of administrative procedures and the complexity and cost of tax and regulatory measures. The informal sector’s Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth is more stable and higher on average than the formal sector TFP.
Keywords:
Madagascar; Informal sector; informality and growth; total factor productivity; social security; tax system; sector TFP; growth in Madagascar; production unit; copyright page; physical capital; Informal employment; Employment; Informal economy; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies
Josef Platzer
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
, and
Robin Tietz
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the past, since the 1980s the decline has been common to many countries. Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with the changes in neutral rates, while others like the relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*. We also find that neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Keywords:
neutral rate; old-age dependency ratio; time series; neutral interest rates; coefficient estimate; cited estimation approach; estimation procedure; Real interest rates; Capital account; Aging; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana
Philip Abradu-Otoo
,
Ivy Acquaye
,
Abubakar Addy
,
Nana Kwame Akosah
,
James Attuquaye
,
Simon Harvey
,
Shalva Mkhatrishvili
,
Zakari Mumuni
, and
Valeriu Nalban
The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main features of the Ghanaian economy, transmission channels and policy framework, including an inflation targeting central bank and aggregate demand effects of fiscal policy. The shock propagation mechanisms embedded in the calibrated QPM demonstrate its theoretical consistency, while out-of-sample forecasting accuracy validates its empirical robustness. Another important part of the QPM is endogenous policy credibility, which may aggravate policy trade-offs in the model and make it more realistic for developing economies. Historical track record of real time policy analysis and medium-term forecasting conducted with the QPM – as a component of the broader FPAS analytical organization – establishes its critical role in supporting the Bank’s forward-looking monetary policy framework.
Keywords:
Ghana; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; out-of-sample forecasting accuracy; D. monetary policy credibility channel; projection model; impulse response; policy analysis; Inflation; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Impacts of Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Submarine Cables
Felix F. Simione
and
Yiruo Li
The Macroeconomic Impacts of Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Submarine Cables
Keywords:
internet penetration; growth effect; macroeconomic impacts of digitalization; arrival IV; employment share; productivity database; Employment; Productivity; Digitalization; Estimation techniques; Labor productivity; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Ukraine
Mr. Anil Ari
and
Gabor Pula
Ukraine’s economic performance has been anemic since the early 1990s. A major impediment to productivity growth has been low investment, held back by lack of strong and independent institutions. This paper aims to assess the major areas of institutional weakness in Ukraine and quantify the long-term growth impact of catching-up to Poland in terms of the quality of major economic institutions and market development. Our analysis identifies the legal system as the area where the institutional quality is weakest compared to Poland, followed distantly by market competition, openness to trade and financial depth. Using a methodology that accounts for positive spillovers between the structural reform areas, we estimate that even under the most optimistic scenario, where institutional gaps are fully addressed, Ukraine would need 15 years to catch up to Poland’s current income level.
Keywords:
growth impact; reform gap; reform scenario; scenario Ukraine; indicator value; Structural reforms; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; International reserves; Corruption; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle
Frederic Lambert
,
Mr. Andrea Pescatori
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in a cross-section of countries, and that the Okun's coefficient falls with the level of labor informality, we build a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two sectors, formal and informal, which can replicate these key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to Colombia. The results show that labor market and tax reforms play an important role in changing the informality rate but also caution against over-optimism - with low GDP per capita, informality will always be relatively high as there is insufficient demand for formal goods. Quantitatively we find that higher productivity in the formal sector is key in explaining the difference between Colombia and countries with significantly lower informality. We use the model to study how labor informality and labor market frictions mediate the cyclical response of the economy to shocks, including commodity price shocks which are particularly relevant in Latin America. Informality is shown to play an important role as a shock absorber with the informal-formal margin limiting movements in the employed-unemployed margin.
Keywords:
labor market; informality; business cycle; WP; commodity price shock; frictions affect labor market dynamics; GDP growth; sector TFP; labor market informality; TFP parameter; business cycle model; TFP shock; labor market frictions affect labor market dynamics; Total factor productivity; Labor markets; Business cycles; Unemployment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation
Manoj Atolia
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Milton Marquis
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the roles of manufacturing, policy, and the international environment in shaping the trajectory of structural transformation. The salient aspects of the current debate on premature deindustrialization and its relation to a middle-income trap are described as they relate to the path of structural transformation. Conclusions are drawn regarding prospective future paths for structural transformation and development policies.
Keywords:
Development policies; structural transformation; premature deindustrialization; middle-income trap; push factors; growth diagnostics; high-productivity IT service; export structure; net importer; open economy; labor-saving technology; high-productivity service; middle-income economy; productivity economy; Manufacturing; Income; Productivity; Employment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s economic growth eased to 2 percent in 2016, as gross investment contracted significantly by 11.7 percent on the back of lower than expected absorption of European Union (EU) funds. This effect was compounded by a drag from net exports, as import volume growth accelerated markedly, while export growth remained modest. Despite a strong rise in imports, the current account recorded a surplus of 1.5 percent in 2016 as the terms of trade, driven largely by falling energy prices, improved by over 4.7 percent. Growth is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2017 on the back of an accelerated pace of disbursement of EU funds and continued robust private credit growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance of payments; current account; Latvia; growth; EU fund; credit growth; IMF staff estimate; World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission; liability position vis-à-vis nonresident; Credit; Informal economy; Total factor productivity; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica
Mr. Rodolphe Blavy
The paper analyzes Jamaica's experience of low growth despite consistently high investment. Cross-country analysis provides evidence of a significant and negative relationship between total public debt and productivity growth. Looking at the specific channels through which high debt affects productivity growth and the allocation of resources in Jamaica, the study finds that high public debt has been associated with macroeconomic uncertainty and an output structure that relied excessively on a few maturing sectors with limited scope for productivity growth. Furthermore, public investment has been crowded out by debt service, further adversely affecting productivity growth.
Keywords:
WP; investment; Jamaica; GDP; debt
Cover IMF Working Papers
Why Do Some Countries Manage to Extract Growth from Foreign Aid?
Jean-François Ruhashyankiko
Aid is primarily given to governments whereas the engine of sustained growth is the private sector. It is therefore illusory to investigate the impact of aid on growth without considering the impact of government interventions on the private sector. The model shows how these interventions improve capacity utilization and growth. However, distortionary interventions can also cause capacity underutilization and an increase in the informal economy, that is, the very market failures the interventions initially sought to address. Countries that fall into this trap are characterized by insufficient credibility in promoting the private sector, which translates into aid dependence and slower growth over time. The empirical evidence is supportive. This paper finds that aggregate aid has a positive impact on growth (even without diminishing returns) but the impact is substantially smaller for low-income countries.
Keywords:
WP; private sector