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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Forecasting Policy and Analysis System at the Bank of Botswana
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of Bank of Botswana, a Technical Assistance mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department visited Gaborone, Botswana during May 27–31, 2024, to assist the authorities in enhancing their forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS). The mission assessed and advised on both near-term and medium-term forecasting tools and models currently used by the Bank of Botswana. The mission team helped create a new centralized database and introduced a new flexible platform with a suite of models that expands and complements existing near-term forecasting models. The mission team also improved the medium-term forecasting framework by reviewing model calibration, introducing a fiscal block, and recommending further adjustments.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Forecasting and Policy Analysis System; Data Management; Near-term and Medium-term Forecasting Tools; Botswana.; IMF's Monetary; medium term forecasting tool; IMF Monetary; policy analysis system; IMF executive directors; Output gap; Infrastructure; Exchange rate arrangements; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries
Mr. Tetsuya Konuki
and
Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte
Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; country; price; GDP; fiscal policy stance; resource fund; fiscal policy principle; Nonresource output gaps; African country; fiscal policy Procyclicality; countercyclical fiscal policies; fiscal policy in the region; resource revenue; way fiscal policy; fiscal policy management; fiscal policy anchor; Fiscal stance; Procyclical fiscal policy; Output gap; Procyclicality; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Africa on the Move
Africa on the Move
Unlocking the Potential of Small Middle-Income States
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
and
Mr. Ali M. Mansoor

Abstract

This book describes the reforms needed to move small middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa to advanced-economy status. The result of intense discussions with public officials in the countries covered, the book blends rigorous theory, econometrics, and practitioners' insights to come up with practical recommendations for policymakers. It spans topics from macroeconomic vulnerability and reserve adequacy to labor market institutions and financial inclusion. The book is a must-read for researchers interested in the economic issues facing developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords:
BOOK; government; reserve; Small Middle-Income Country; TFP growth; public employment; country authorities; design reserves management policy; bank distress; SMICs in sub-Saharan Africa; SMIC government; Total factor productivity; Public employment; Labor markets; Financial sector stability; Financial inclusion; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Eastern Europe; Africa; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries
Aidar Abdychev
,
La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul
,
Mr. Andrew W Jonelis
,
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
,
Ashwin Moheeput
,
Friska Parulian
,
Ara Stepanyan
, and
Albert Touna Mama
Many small middle-income countries (SMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a moderation in growth in recent years. Although factor accumulation, most notably capital deepening, was crucial to the success of many SMICs historically, this growth model appears to have run its course. The analysis in this paper suggests that the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is largely responsible for the slowdown in trend growth in many SMICs, which highlights the need for policy actions to reinvigorate productivity growth. This paper explores the question of what kind of structural policies could boost productivity growth in SMICs and the political economy factors that may be contributing to the slow implementation of these critical reforms in these countries. The findings suggest that although macroeconomic stability and trade openness are necessary for productivity growth, they are not sufficient. SMICs need to improve the quality of their public spending, most notably in education to minimize the skill mismatch in the labor market, reduce the regulatory burden on firms, improve access to finance by small and medium-sized enterprises and create the enabling environment to facilitate structural transformation in these economies.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; GDP; TFP; labor market; Growth; Productivity; potential growth…; regulation indices; TFP determinant; TFP datum; FDI inflow; SMICs in SSA; long-run TFP growth; credit market; TFP contribution; Total factor productivity; Labor markets; Gender diversity; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Solow Versus Harrod-Domar: Reexamining the Aid Costs of the First Millennium Development Goal
Carl-Johan Dalgaard
and
Mr. Lennart Erickson
The First Millennium Development Goal (MDG#1) is to cut the fraction of global population living on less than one dollar per day in half, by 2015. Foreign aid financed investments may contribute to the attainment of this goal. But how much can aid be reasonably expected to accomplish? A widespread calibration approach to answering this question is to employ the so-called development planning technique, which has the Harrod-Domar growth model at its base. Two particularly problematic assumptions in this sort of analysis are the absence of diminishing returns to capital input and an infinite speed of adjustment to steady state after a shock to the economy. We remove both of these assumptions by employing a Solow model as an organizing framework for an otherwise similar analysis. We find that in order to successfully meet the MDG#1 in the context of the currently proposed aid flows, these flows will have to be accompanied by either an acceleration in the underlying productivity growth rate or a major boost to domestic savings and investment in sub-Saharan Africa. In the absence of such changes in the economic environment, the MDG#1 is unlikely to be reached.
Keywords:
WP; production function; mover accent; capital goods
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana
Ms. Silvia Sgherri
and
Mr. Maitland MacFarlan
This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5½ percent a year without the pandemic to between 1½ and 2½ percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.
Keywords:
WP; Aids; GDP; AIDS scenario; saving; AIDS baseline; AIDS case; AIDS insurance; AIDS disaster; HIV and AIDS; Wages; Health care spending; Capital accumulation; Total factor productivity; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes economic developments in Botswana during the 1990s. The paper analyzes the growth process during 1982/83–1996/97 by assessing the contribution of capital, labor, and technological progress, both at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. The paper examines the diversification initiatives undertaken by Botswana and the extent to which diversification and employment creation have been achieved. It provides the background to the unemployment problem, and summarizes Botswana’s policy initiatives to diversify and create sustainable employment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Botswana; diversification; capital; employment growth; Botswana authorities; computed TFP; employment opportunity; policy initiative; TFP performance; Total factor productivity; Employment; Mining sector; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa