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International Monetary Fund
The global economy is gaining momentum, but further progress hinges on policies to support the recovery, lift productivity growth, and enhance resilience. Against the background of rapid technological progress, a cooperative multilateral framework for trade and financial integration has served countries well, producing large economic benefits. However, some groups have not been able to share in these benefits, a trend exposed by a too-slow post-crisis recovery, which limited the room for all segments of society to experience income gains. Working within the multilateral framework, countries should strive for strong and more balanced growth and to provide economic opportunities for all. To this end, they should anticipate the effects of technological progress and economic integration, equip their populations with tools to reap the benefits, and put in place domestic policies to share them more broadly. The Fund will assist members through carefully tailored policy advice, lending to smooth adjustment, and capacity development.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, and economics in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Mr. Jörg Decressin
and
Mr. Piti Disyatat
The paper compares the degree of capital market integration across euro-area countries with that across regions in Italy and provinces in Canada. Analyzing saving-investment correlations, and developing as well as fitting to the data a model of capital flows, reveal no compelling differences between the integration across countries before monetary union and that across the regions or provinces. The evidence does not suggest that EMU will prompt a major reallocation of net capital flows within the euro area that would entail sizable shifts in countries’ equilibrium current accounts.