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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on recalibrating the coronavirus disease (COVID) strategy in the People’s Republic of China. Successfully containing outbreaks also supported the gradual transition to more targeted and flexible containment measures, refining the overall strategy in line with the evolution of the pandemic. In late 2022, the authorities started easing COVID containment policies notwithstanding ongoing spikes in infections. Even though the economy bounced back quickly from the 2020 outbreaks, the recovery of private consumption has been lagging—in part as a result of the need for recurring lockdowns and elevated uncertainty. Throughout 2022, the emergence of more transmissible variants put the zero-COVID strategy to test and outbreaks have significantly hurt domestic economic activity. An immediate withdrawal of all nonpharmaceutical interventions could have severe health consequences, given the relatively lower level of vaccination for the most vulnerable, a possible lack of antiviral treatments, and still limited medical capacities.
Keywords:
green finance landscape; C. power market; market reform; policy initiative; E. Policy implication; Climate finance; Credit; Greenhouse gas emissions; Total factor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel Survey
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
,
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
,
Thuy Dinh Pham
,
Nga Huong Phi
,
Duong Thuy Nguyen
, and
Tuan Danh Duong
Using a unique representative panel survey of Vietnamese enterprises in 2020, we find that the pandemic and associated government support package had a heterogenous impact across firms. The government support package, particularly tax cuts and deferrals, helped alleviate short term stress, but tight ineligibility criteria and cumbersome procedures impacted take-up. Econometric analysis suggests that the likelihood of accessing support was associated with firm size, with larger firms more likely to receive support compared to smaller firms, even after controlling for sector, firm ownership and financial health. Credit support was effective in alleviating liquidity constraints and allaying firm pessimism only for large firms. Interestingly, firms experiencing sales losses and those with lower pre-crisis productivity were more likely to resort to digitalization, suggesting that the pandemic could help narrow productivity gaps.
Keywords:
COVID-19; policy support; firms’ coping strategies; digitalization; coping strategy; government support package; credit support; firm pessimism; self-coping strategy; Credit; Labor costs; Productivity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
G. climate change policy priority; growth potential; A. climate change; dollarization indicator; climate change institution; Climate change; Monetary base; Currencies; Exchange rates; De-dollarization; Global; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: The Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits
Alexandre Sollaci
I investigate the aggregate effects of R&D tax credits in the US. Because it subsidizes R&D activity and because credit rates vary between states, this policy has both spatial and dynamic effects on the economy. To address this issue, I construct an endogenous growth model with spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration spillovers in innovation. Aggregate outcomes in this model are thus affected by the spatial distribution of the population in the economy, which is itself endogenous and reacts to policy. I use this framework to identify a set of local R&D subsidies that maximize aggregate welfare.
Keywords:
agglomeration; innovation; R&D tax credits; R&D activity; R&D subsidy; R&D tax credit rate; aggregate outcome; Tax allowances; Credit ratings; Productivity; Wages; Global; elasticity of agglomeration; welfare effect; elasticity of congestion
Cover IMF Working Papers
India’s Banks: Lending to Productive Firms?
Siddharth George
,
Mr. Divya Kirti
,
Soledad Martinez Peria
, and
Rajesh Vijayaraghavan
Capital misallocation is widely thought to be an important factor underpinning productivity and income gaps between advanced and emerging economies. This paper studies how well Indian banks allocate capital across firms with varying levels of productivity. The analysis reveals that the link between productivity and bank credit growth is weaker for firms with significant ties to public sector banks, especially in years when public sector banks represent a large share of new credit. Large flows of credit to unproductive firms represent important missed growth opportunities for more productive firms. These results suggest that measures to improve governance of public sector banks, potentially including privatization, would help reduce capital misallocation.
Keywords:
Productivity; bank lending; allocation of credit; capital misallocation; public sector bank; PSB dependence; PSB share; credit growth; Bank credit; Credit; Productivity; State-owned banks; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy shock; guidance policy; productivity gap; LG bond issuance; financing arrangement; leveraged firm; Fiscal union; Bank credit; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Productivity
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Structural Obstacles to Firm Performance: Evidence from 2,640 Firms in Nigeria
Amr Hosny
A recent World Bank enterprise survey identified access to finance as the top constraint to Doing Business in Nigeria. In this context, the objective of this paper is two-fold: (i) study firm characteristics associated with more access to finance and export diversification; and (ii) quantify the impact of these structural obstacles on firm performance. Results suggest that (i) larger and export-oriented firms are about 40 percentage points less likely to report access to finance as a business obstacle, while firms perceiving access to finance as a constraint are, on average, about 10-40 percentage points less likely to be export-oriented diversified firms; and (ii) better access to finance and export diversification can help firm employment —as much as 80 percent higher— and capacity utilization. Results are largely robust to different specifications and estimation methods.
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm performance; export; enterprise surveys; access to credit; export diversification; Nigeria; Nigeria enterprise survey question; export orientation; survey response; firm level; Exports; Credit; Capacity utilization; Employment; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Business environment
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies the growth-inflation trade-off of monetary policy in South Africa. The combination of low growth and stubbornly high inflation expectations for a protracted period has complicated monetary policy decisions. The IMF staff analysis contributes to the ongoing growth-inflation trade-off discussion in South Africa, concluding that there is limited growth trade-off of monetary policy efforts to anchor inflation expectations at a lower level at present. The findings in this note suggest that the South African Reserve Bank should continue its efforts of anchoring inflation and inflation expectations at a lower level because monetary policy lends limited support to growth dampened by structural issues. During the 2010s, domestic demand growth responded little to monetary policy action. The environment of weak growth, low interest rates, and relatively moderate inflation (expectations) could have muted monetary policy transmission. Ultimately, the constraints to economic growth need to be removed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations continue to respond to monetary policy action albeit to a lesser extent. Monetary policy transmission through demand has weakened––demand growth does not systematically respond to monetary policy action nor does core inflation––but the exchange rate and credibility channels appear to remain operational.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; rand volatility; inflation expectation; monetary policy; rand; growth-inflation tradeoff; monetary policy action; demand growth; administered price inflation; Private investment; Inflation; Depreciation; Currencies; Total factor productivity; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Latvia highlights that the economy continued to expand rapidly in 2018, as growth surprised with a strong construction-driven upswing. Fiscal and current account deficits are at manageable levels, as is the public debt. The financial system remains stable, despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. The growth outlook is favourable; however, risks weigh on the downside due to a less supportive external environment. The financial system remains stable despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. Banks remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital levels about 40 percent higher than the euro area average and average liquidity coverage four times the regulatory minimum. Higher productivity and investment growth are needed to offset the impact of Latvia’s exceptionally unfavorable demographic trends and achieve robust long-term growth and rapid income convergence.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; lat; firm; World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission; Latvia; SDR; IMF staff estimate; fiscal policy; support productivity-boosting reform; labor market; SME lending; lending constraint; core inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Productivity; Global