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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 475 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
AI readiness; AI adoption; B. Qatar's progress; artificial intelligence in Qatar; innovation policy; Export diversification; Capital spending; Exports; Human capital; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
input-output linkage; housing wealth effect; growth slowdown; real estate sector; risk assessment; Pension spending; Exports; Mortgages; Loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
B. revenue potential; output gap estimate; governance weakness; output gap estimation; tax revenue potential; Potential output; Output gap; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Finland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy has begun to recover from the 2023 recession, but the strength of the rebound is hindered by still weak construction investment and tepid growth among trading partners. Falling energy prices and weak domestic demand have temporarily reduced inflation below 2 percent. The economic recovery is expected to gain momentum in 2025, but downside risks, especially from abroad, remain elevated.
Keywords:
Ministry of Finance estimate; R&D expenditure; transparency policy; population growth boost housing demand; FIN-FSA favor; Finland's economy; strengthening growth momentum; Productivity; Fiscal stance; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Chasing the Dream: Industry-Level Productivity Developments in Europe
Serhan Cevik
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries are lagging behind in productivity growth, with significant productivity gaps across industries. In this study, we use comparable industry-level data to explore the patterns and sources of total factor productivity (TFP) growth across 28 countries in Europe over the period 1995–2020. Our empirical results highlight four main points: (i) TFP growth is driven largely by the extent to which countries are involved in scientific and technological innovation as the leader country or benefiting from stronger knowledge spillovers; (ii) the technological gap is associated with TFP growth as countries move towards the technological frontier by adopting new innovations and technologies; (iii) increased investment in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and research and development (R&D) contributes significantly to higher TFP growth; and (iv)the impact of human capital tends to be stronger when a country is closer to the technological frontier. The core findings of this study call for policy measures and structural reforms to promote innovation and facilitate the diffusion of new and existing technologies across Europe.
Keywords:
Total factor productivity; technology; R&D; innovation; human capital; Europe; productivity development; developments in Europe; core finding; TFP slowdown; TFP difference; Productivity; Capital spending; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Gap Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy Adjustment in Real-Time in Emerging Economies
Giacomo Cattelan
and
Boaz Nandwa
Uncertainty around the real-time output gap has important implications for fiscal policy. This study uses successive vintages of the World Economic Outlook for emerging markets (EMs) during 1998-2022 to examine the reaction of discretionary fiscal policy to uncertain economic cycle in real-time. The findings show that EMs tend to have persistently negative and significantly more volatile real-time output gap estimates compared to advanced economies (AEs) and are less responsive to the output gap shocks. We calibrate a New Keynesian DSGE model to match the behavior of an average EM. The results from the model suggest that when EM policy makers are equally concerned about uncertainty around the output gap estimates and about fiscal implementation, fiscal policy is less counter-cyclical than the benchmark case with no uncertainty, entailing an efficiency loss for the purpose of output gap stabilization. On the other hand, when the concern is only about output gap uncertainty, EM policy makers tend to react more counter-cyclically but at a cost of public debt spiking in the short term and stabilizing over the long term. This implies that it might be optimal for EM policy makers to act more aggressively to stabilize the economy. We show that by adjusting the relative importance of output gap vs debt stabilization in their objective function, EM policy makers can achieve a similar outcome as in the benchmark case with no uncertainty.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; real-time output gap estimates; public debt; output gap uncertainty; output gap shock; output gap estimate; real-time output gap; fiscal policy adjustment; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Neoclassical theory
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
A Recovery Short of Europe’s Full Potential
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe’s economy is recovering, benefiting from a strong crises’ response. Yet, the recovery is falling short of its full potential. Uncertainty about persistent core inflation, policy directions, and geopolitical conflicts is dampening the near-term outlook. In the longer term, perennially weak productivity growth—a result of limited scale and business dynamism–-amid new headwinds from fragmentation and climate change are holding back growth potential. Steady macro policies are needed to navigate an uncertain environment. This requires transitioning to a neutral monetary policy stance and reducing fiscal deficits without jeopardizing the recovery. Policymakers also need to tackle barriers to higher potential growth. A larger and more integrated single market for goods, services, and capital will incentivize investment, innovation, and generate scale benefits. Deepening European integration will also strengthen economic resilience by insulating businesses and labor markets from global fragmentation pressures. These are formidable policy challenges, but now is the time to bring Europe to its full potential.

Keywords:
Growth; inflation; outlook; potential growth; uncertainty; risk; macroeconomic policy; monetary policy; fiscal policy; financial sector policy; structural policy; EU climate; productivity slump; EU financing; governance framework; EU funds; EU country; competitiveness reform; value chain; inflation expectation; EU level; EU budget; CESEE region; Productivity; Purchasing power parity; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global