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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 143 items for :

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Growth and Production Network in Chile: Chile
Si Guo
Productivity growth depends not only on technological innovation but also on production networks that amplify its impact. Theory and cross-country evidence indicate a positive relationship between productivity growth and the use of intermediate inputs, a measure of network connectedness. We find that Chile’s intermediate input utilization is significantly lower than that of OECD peers, such as Korea and the Czech Republic, and declined during 2008-21. This is primarily due to weak domestic producer connections and the smaller presence of the manufacturing sector. We argue that diversifying exports from mining, reducing trade costs, and improving contract enforcement could strengthen network linkages and boost growth.
Keywords:
Chile; Productivity; Input-output; production network; D. input-output linkage; A. growth slowdown; network linkage; aggregate productivity growth; Exports; Manufacturing; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses perspectives on the Czech Republic’s structural productivity slowdown. The Czech economy has underperformed European peers in the post-pandemic period and economic convergence has come to a halt. This outcome is often attributed to the country’s links to specific slow growing trading partners and to its energy-intensive economic structure. A decline in productivity, along with a slower increase in the labor force has been a crucial factor. The paper focuses specifically on the challenge posed by declining productivity, uncovering multifaceted factors and dynamics at play. Empirical analysis suggests that further R&D investment could reduce gaps with the total factor productivity frontier, sector-specific bottlenecks should be addressed, and productivity-enhancing labor reallocation could be better supported by more targeted policies. Though structural transformation may be inevitable, it does not need to adversely affect productivity as observed in recent years. The Czech Republic may evolve towards a more mature, diversified economy with certain services playing an increasingly significant role.
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ghana: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Developing the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the Bank of Ghana (BOG)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
and
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year Bank of Ghana (BOG) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2019 and mid-2024 over a total of seven missions, three in-person and four virtual. The project has focused on upgrading and building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. BOG staff has made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset in providing analytical support to the policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the BOG internal deliberations and represents the key input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation, including in regular external communications. Remaining recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamline external communications.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Central banks; Inflation; Output gap; Exchange rate; Monetary policy transmission; Ghana.; IMF TA project team; BOG forecasting team; TA team; BOG's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System; TA mission; Exchange rates; Agricultural sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
service sector productivity; B. deflation vulnerability index; outward FDI; inflation expectation; emissions trading system; Foreign direct investment; Services sector; Total factor productivity; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents monetary policy analysis with a quarterly projection model (QPM) in Hungary. The standard QPM is adapted to reflect some specific features of the Hungarian economy and post-Covid set of shocks. Inflation is modelled in greater sectoral detail, including the separation of core goods and services, to capture differences in their drivers and dynamics and to model spillovers of shocks from one sector to another. Following a period of large interest rate reductions, the projections from the QPM suggest that the next phase of monetary policy normalization should proceed cautiously and more gradually. Results from the model should be used alongside other forms of analysis and expert judgement in determining the optimal path of monetary policy. Data should be watched keenly to assess the realism of the model’s projections.
Keywords:
income convergence; E. impulse response; convergence in Hungary; beta convergence; monetary policy shock; Inflation; Corporate sector; Income; Income inequality; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Perceptions of Canada’s Investment Climate: A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach
Flora Lutz
,
Yuanchen Yang
, and
Chengyu Huang
Canada’s muted productivity growth during recent years has sparked concerns about the country’s investment climate. In this study, we develop a new natural language processing (NPL) based indicator, mining the richness of Twitter (now X) accounts to measure trends in the public perceptions of Canada’s investment climate. We find that while the Canadian investment climate appears to be generally favorable, there are signs of slippage in some categories in recent periods, such as with respect to governance and infrastructure. This result is confirmed by both survey-based and NLP-based indicators. We also find that our NLP-based indicators would suggest that perceptions of Canada’s investment climate are similar to perceptions of U.S. investment climate, except with respect to governance, where views of U.S. governance are notably more negative. Comparing our novel indicator relative to traditional survey-based indicators, we find that the NLP-based indicators are statistically significant in helping to predict investment flows, similar to survey-based measures. Meanwhile, the new NLP-based indicator offers insights into the nuances of data, allowing us to identify specific grievances. Finally, we construct a similar indicator for the U.S. and compare trends across countries.
Keywords:
Investment Climate; Canada; Machine Learning; Sentiment Analysis; muted productivity growth; investmest climate; investment flow; NLP-based indicator; Climate finance; Competition; Infrastructure; Productivity; Mining sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
Cristian Alonso
and
Margaux MacDonald
While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but agriculture remains the predominant employer. Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven, with limited progress in agriculture, but also in construction and trade, which have grown the most in terms of employment. We do find some Indian firms already operating at the technological frontier. These strong performers tend to be large firms. We then consider India’s employment challenge going forward. We find that India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050 and that doing so and with workers shifting towards more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points. Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
Keywords:
Economywide Production; Potential Output; Labor Productivity; Employment; Structural Transformation; Technological Frontier.; frontier employment; India's employment challenge; technology frontier; growth decomposition; IMF staff estimate; industry level; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo
Victor Musa
,
Bertrand Gilles Umba
,
Lewis Mambo
,
Jonas Kibala
,
Christian Kandolo
,
Josephine Mushiya
,
Yannick Luvezo
,
Jules Nsunda
,
Grégoire Lumbala
,
Yves Siasi
,
Serge Mfumukanda
,
Lubaki Ange
,
Kabata Olivier
,
Luc Shindano
,
Dyna Heng
,
Diego Rodriguez Guzman
, and
Barna Szabo
The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Keywords:
Resource-rich; Dollarization; Monetary policy; Inflation; Exchange Rate Policies; DRC QPM model; DRC economy; DRC's economy; Near-Term Forecast model; GDP data; Annex II; Output gap; Exchange rates; Mining sector; Exchange rate devaluation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks
Caterina Lepore
and
Roshen Fernando
This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis.
Keywords:
climate risk analysis; capital markets department; climate risk; physical capital; productivity change; Climate change; Productivity; Agricultural sector; Natural disasters; Global; North America; Western Europe; Europe