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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers
Pierre Nguimkeu
and
Cedric I Okou
This paper analyzes the drivers of digital technologies adoption and how it affects the productivity of small scale businesses in Africa. We use data collected from two semi-rural markets in Benin, where grains and legumes are key staple foods and one-third of the population has internet access. We develop a structural model to rationalize digital technologies adoption—defined as the use of mobile broadband internet connection through smartphones—as well as usage patterns and outcomes observed in the data. The model’s implications are empirically tested using both reduced-form and structural maximum likelihood estimations. We find that younger, wealthier, more educated grains and legumes suppliers and those closely surrounded by other users are more likely to adopt digital technologies. Adopters perform 4-5 more business transactions each month than non-adopters on average, suggesting that digital technologies adoption could raise the monthly frequency and amounts of trades by up to 50%. Most adopters are women, but their productivity gains are lower than their male counterparts. Counterfactual policy simulations with the estimated model suggest that upgrading the broadband internet quality yields the largest improvement in adoption rate and productivity gains, while reducing its cost for a given connection quality only has a moderate effect. Improving access to credit only increases the adoption rate of constrained suppliers.
Keywords:
Digital Technology Adoption; Food Supply; Counterfactual Analysis; productivity gain; legumes supplier; adoption rate; broadband internet quality; Productivity; Agricultural commodities; Financial inclusion; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Proposal to Improve Country-Level Data on Total Factor Productivity Growth
Andrew M. Warner
The assumption behind popular data on national capital stocks, and therefore total factor productivity, is that countries were in a steady state in the first year that investment data became available. This paper argues that this assumption is highly implausible and is necessarily responsible for implausible data on the ratio of capital to output and productivity growth. It is not credible that countries with similar incomes had huge differences in their capital stocks. This paper claims, with evidence, that implausible features of the data can be greatly reduced by using data on electricity usage or national stocks of road vehicles.
Keywords:
Productivity; Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; capital output ratio; total factor productivity growth; capita-output ratio; investment data; TFP growth estimate; Capital productivity; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Electricity; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and policies regarding climate change in the Republic of North Macedonia. A scale-up of private and public investments, along with decommission of old and polluting coal-based power plants, is needed to adapt to climate change and meet emissions targets as part of the green transition. The EU-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU-CBAM) from 2026 will affect North Macedonia, and the authorities should consider a gradual introduction of carbon taxation to prepare for the EU-CBAM, as also envisioned in existing legislation. The introduction of the EU CBAM will influence North Macedonia’s exports to the EU negatively, as well as revenue collected, as part of the EU CBAM will be foregone revenue for North Macedonia. Instead, North Macedonia should consider a form of carbon taxation, as also envisioned in existing legislation, to collect the revenue by the state, as well as recycle part of this to mitigate the impact of the carbon tax and further support the green transition.
Keywords:
interest rate pass-through; long term interest rates pass-through; interest rate transmission; climate policy agenda; productivity competition; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Central bank policy rate; Climate change; Electricity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda
Mr. Benedicte Baduel
,
Carolin Geginat
, and
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
This paper examines the extent to which firms in selected MENA countries reported being constrained by the business environment around the time of the Arab Spring and the extent to which these constraints affected their employment performance. The results suggest that small firms in MENA faced more structural constraints than similar firms in other regions. We also find that MENA firms’ weaker job creation can be explained in great part by the macroeconomic environment and structural constraints. Low GDP growth, falling external competitiveness, corruption, lack of access to finance and poor access to electricity are found to explain a significant part of the lack of employment growth in MENA firms compared to their peers.
Keywords:
WP; employment growth; World Bank enterprises survey; enterprise survey; firms' characteristic; credit constraint; employment performance; firm exit; firms in Mena; medium-sized firm; SMEs; MENA; Arab Countries in Transition; private sector; employment; employment creation; World Bank enterprise survey; micro firm; Job creation; Business environment; Labor productivity; Electricity; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt
Pietro Dallari
,
Mr. Nicolas End
,
Fedor Miryugin
,
Alexander F. Tieman
, and
Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a significant driver of leverage, for both small and medium-sized enterprises and larger firms, with its effect accounting for about a quarter of leverage. The strength of this effect differs with firm size, the availability of collateral, income and income volatility, cash flow, and capital intensity. We conclude that leveling the playing field between debt and equity finance through tax policy reform would decrease NFC leverage, reducing economic risks posited by leverage.
Keywords:
WP; firm; debt; SME; Leverage; Debt Bias; Tax Policy; Corporate Income Tax; SMEs; Micro data; leverage decision; coefficient estimate; incurred debt; debt firm; debt contract; leverage ratio; estimates of debt bias; long-term debt; strength of debt bias; effect of debt bias; bias coefficient estimate; Capital productivity; Financial statements; Currencies; Europe; Global; interest deductibility; corporate debt; quantile regression; copyright Page; Oil
Cover IMF Working Papers
Losing to Blackouts: Evidence from Firm Level Data
Daniel Gurara
and
Dawit Tessema
Many developing economies are often hit by electricity crises either because of supply constraints or lacking in broader energy market reforms. This study uses manufacturing firm census data from Ethiopia to identify productivity losses attributable to power disruptions. Our estimates show that these disruptions, on average, result in productivity losses of about 4–10 percent. We found nonlinear productivity losses at different quantiles along the productivity distribution. Firms at higher quantiles faced higher losses compared to firms around the median. We observed patterns of systematic shutdowns as firms attempt to minimize losses.
Keywords:
WP; production function; productivity loss; Power disruption; Shutdowns; time index; productivity shock; firms shutdown; grid-power consumption; firm age; panel data; state utility company; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Electricity; Labor productivity; Capacity utilization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the oil economy, outlook, and risk for Norway. Growth has continued to slow in the mainland economy. At the start of this year, oil prices had dropped by roughly 60 percent from their peak in June 2014 to less than US$40 a barrel. The labor market is feeling the sting of the oil price crash. The krone has weakened substantially along with the decline in oil prices. However, a modest recovery should take root next year. Mainland economy growth should be about 1 percent this year and pick up to close to 1¾ percent in 2017.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; mortgage; firm; risk; firm TFP; oil price; mortgage risk weight; development enterprise; labor market; LTV ratio guideline; tax deductibility; valuation gap; firm productivity; Housing prices; Mortgages; Productivity; Macroprudential policy instruments; Oil; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Canada: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper describes recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policy challenges of the Canadian economy. After almost two years, the effects of the oil price shock continue to reverberate through the Canadian economy. Growth has decelerated, but inflation expectations remain well anchored. With the slowdown in growth, the output gap has reopened. Persistently low energy prices pose an important risk to the economy. The banking system remains sound, but exposure to the oil and gas sector will require higher provisions against expected losses. The policy mix over the near-term should cushion the adverse effects of lower oil prices on the economy while safeguarding financial stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; economy; accommodative monetary policy; monetary policy; consultation; oil shock; exchange rate; Canada's growth; financial asset; growth of mortgage credit; Oil prices; Housing prices; Mortgages; Oil; Productivity; Global; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Country-Industry-Level Evidence
Romain Bouis
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
, and
Johannes Eugster
The paper investigates the economic effects of major product market reforms in some of the historically most protected non-manufacturing industries. It relies on a unique mapping between new annual data on reform shocks and sector-level outcomes for five network industries (electricity and gas, land transport, air transport, postal services, and telecommunications) in twenty-six countries spanning over three decades. The use of a threedimensional panel and careful instrumentation of reform shocks using external instruments enables us to control for economy-wide macroeconomic shocks and address possible sources of omitted variable bias more broadly. Using a local projection method, we find that major reductions in barriers to entry yield large increases in output and labor productivity over a five-year horizon, concomitant with a relative price decline. By contrast, there is only a weak positive effect on sectoral employment, and investment is essentially unaffected, suggesting that output gains from reform primarily reflect higher total factor productivity. It takes some time for these gains to materialize: effects become statistically significant two to three years after the reform, as prices start dropping, and productivity and output increase significantly. However, there is no evidence of any negative short-term cost from reform, including under weak macroeconomic conditions. These findings provide a clear case for intensifying product market reform efforts in advanced economies at the current juncture of weak growth.
Keywords:
WP; panel dataset; country-time-industry panel data; EU country; OECD indicator; time series; Structural reforms; deregulation; competition; entry barriers; product market; growth; sector observation; product market deregulation; labor productivity effect; land transport; Commodity markets; Transportation; Electricity; Employment; Labor productivity; Global
Cover Breaking the Oil Spell
Breaking the Oil Spell
The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
, and
Min Zhu

Abstract

The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Keywords:
BOOK; industry; country; GCC country; IMF's Middle East Center for Economics and Finance; economy; oil exporter; establishment of the CEF; natural resource boom; lessons Korea; Productivity; Oil; Exports; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Southeast Asia; North Africa; private sector; value chain; government failure; Manufacturing