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Business and Economics > Information Management

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic policy; nternational cooperation x
  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro Mariano Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
Keywords:
growth revision; consensus forecast growth revision; WEO growth forecast; consensus forecasts revision; fall-to-spring WEO revision; Technology transfer; Terms of trade; Time series analysis; Vector autoregression; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
and
Mr. Alexander Chudik
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
Keywords:
WP; estimation; exchange rate