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Business and Economics > Information Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States
Jocelyn Boussard
,
Chiara Castrovillari
,
Tomohide Mineyama
,
Marta Spinella
, and
Maxwell Tuuli
This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
Global shocks; external financing; low-income countries; Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS); FCS economy; Commodity tot shock; FCS list; shock variable; decline shock; Technology transfer; Exports; Commodity prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Public Procurement in South Africa: Issues and Reform Options
Mr. Alejandro Simone
and
Vybhavi Balasundharam
The 2015 Supply Chain Management Review lays out a sound agenda for procurement reform. The ongoing work on a new procurement bill and regulations are an important opportunity to spearhead procurement reform and step-up implementation. Several important reform aspects worth prioritizing are the simplification and standardization of aprocurement procedures, the standardization of transparency requirements through the adoption of the Open Contracting Data Standards, transitioning to a new e-procurement system that is linked to the government’s integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and other systems, making preferential procurement more cost effective and goal oriented, and strengthening staff capacity to carry out procurement. Opportunities to centralize procurement should be further explored to leverage and develop limited capacity.
Keywords:
National Government Expenditure; Performance of Government; Public Goods; Public Procurement; Expenditure efficiency; procurement reform; reform option; e-procurement system; step-up implementation; procurement contract; Public sector; Integrated financial management information systems; Open data; Africa
Cover FinTech Notes
The Rise of Payment and Contracting Platforms
Mr. Tobias Adrian
and
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
This Note explores the design and governance of platforms to enhance cross-border payments in line with public policy goals. While much innovation in recent years has more narrowly targeted end-user frictions, the vision in this paper is based on the mandate of the IMF, governed by the central banks and finance ministries of 190 member countries. Cross-border payments present the foundation for the global financial system, and its functioning is overseen by the IMF.
Keywords:
cross-border payments; platforms; central bank digital currencies; digital money; foreign exchange; settlement; programmability encryption; cross-border payment; note 2023/005; anatomy of payment; XC platform; platform operator; International reserves; Information and data management; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper on Solomon Island discusses big data and high frequency surveillance for Pacific Islands countries (PICs). Big data can be used to fill data gaps for PICs and the IMF can serve as a capacity-building and innovation hub. The estimators computed based on AIS data have been used as part of the surveillance dashboard by the Solomon Islands team and have been discussed with the authorities. Initiatives like the Arslanalp, Koepke, and Verschuur estimation exploit cross-country synergies and technical expertise available at the IMF to provide valuable inputs for both internal and external use. Other potential applications of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) can expand on this effort, for example, some single-country applications are monitoring of fishing vessels to estimate fishing rents from daily vessel schemes, monitoring export-related ships to monitor for piracy/exports misreporting, track tourism in real time, etc. Given the global nature of the AIS data, it can also be used to analyze global supply chains, trade disruptions from natural disasters, the effect of trade policies, etc.
Keywords:
Honiara port activity; export volume; D. trade flow; import volume; Island port activity; Imports; Exports; Trade balance; COVID-19; Agroindustries; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Technical Assistance Report-Consumer Price Index Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance mission collaborated with the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics in Peru to incorporate big data methods into compilation of the consumer price index (CPI). This includes both prices ingested from the websites of large retailers and data recorded through in-store checkout scanners.
Keywords:
consumer price index mission; scanner data; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; World Bank staff; data provider; Consumer price indexes; Data collection; Data processing; Big data
Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Yasmin Alem
and
Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Statistics; Data; Fragile States; Sta CD mission; government finance statistics manual; Sta CD delivery; Sta CD spending; World Bank methodology assessment; Income; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Information and data management; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands; Middle East; West Africa; Africa; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Using the Google Places API and Google Trends Data to Develop High Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity
Mr. Paul A Austin
,
Mr. Marco Marini
,
Alberto Sanchez
,
Chima Simpson-Bell
, and
James Tebrake
As the pandemic heigthened policymakers’ demand for more frequent and timely indicators to assess economic activities, traditional data collection and compilation methods to produce official indicators are falling short—triggering stronger interest in real time data to provide early signals of turning points in economic activity. In this paper, we examine how data extracted from the Google Places API and Google Trends can be used to develop high frequency indicators aligned to the statistical concepts, classifications, and definitions used in producing official measures. The approach is illustrated by use of Google data-derived indicators that predict well the GDP trajectories of selected countries during the early stage of COVID-19. To this end, we developed a methodological toolkit for national compilers interested in using Google data to enhance the timeliness and frequency of economic indicators.
Keywords:
Reopening; COVID-19; High-Frequency Data; Business Register.; Google Trends data; Google data; high-frequency data; high frequency indicator; reopening Indicator; APIs; Big data; Manufacturing; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro Mariano Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
Keywords:
growth revision; consensus forecast growth revision; WEO growth forecast; consensus forecasts revision; fall-to-spring WEO revision; Technology transfer; Terms of trade; Time series analysis; Vector autoregression; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Andras Komaromi
,
Yang Liu
, and
Mamoon Saeed
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Keywords:
port visit; machine-learning technique; data from the Automatic Identification System; port call; trade activity; Imports; Exports; Oil; Machine learning; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, Fall-Winter 2019
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
Keywords:
IRB; trade; debt measurement; exporter; policy session; firm; Mundell-Fleming Lecture; US-China trade tension; tariff factor; Exports; Tariffs; Infrastructure; Big data; Trade liberalization; Global; East Asia; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; threshold ModelsHow; ship movement; TrajectoriesThe global financial crisis; Imports; Asia and Pacific