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Business and Economics > Information Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Shocks Unfolding: Lessons from Fragile and Conflict-affected States
Jocelyn Boussard
,
Chiara Castrovillari
,
Tomohide Mineyama
,
Marta Spinella
, and
Maxwell Tuuli
This paper investigates the consequences of global shocks on a sample of low- and lower-middle-income countries with a particular focus on fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS). FCS are a group of countries that display institutional weakness and/or are negatively affected by active conflict, thereby facing challenges in macroeconomic policy management. Examining different global shocks associated with commodity prices, external demand, and financing conditions, this paper establishes that FCS economies are more vulnerable to these shocks compared to non-FCS peers. The higher sensitivity of FCS economies is mainly driven by procyclical fiscal responses, aggravated by the lack of effective spending controls and timely access to financial sources. External financing serves as a source of stability, partially mitigating the adverse impact of global shocks. This paper contributes to a better understanding of how conditions of fragility, which are on the rise in many parts of the world today, can amplify the effects of negative exogenous shocks. Its results highlight the diverse nature of underlying sources of vulnerabilities, spanning from fiscal and external buffers to institutional quality and economic structure, with lessons applicable to a broader set of countries. Efficient and timely external financial support from external partners, including international financial institutions, should help countries’ counter-cyclical responses to mitigate adverse shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
Global shocks; external financing; low-income countries; Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS); FCS economy; Commodity tot shock; FCS list; shock variable; decline shock; Technology transfer; Exports; Commodity prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Solomon Islands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper on Solomon Island discusses big data and high frequency surveillance for Pacific Islands countries (PICs). Big data can be used to fill data gaps for PICs and the IMF can serve as a capacity-building and innovation hub. The estimators computed based on AIS data have been used as part of the surveillance dashboard by the Solomon Islands team and have been discussed with the authorities. Initiatives like the Arslanalp, Koepke, and Verschuur estimation exploit cross-country synergies and technical expertise available at the IMF to provide valuable inputs for both internal and external use. Other potential applications of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) can expand on this effort, for example, some single-country applications are monitoring of fishing vessels to estimate fishing rents from daily vessel schemes, monitoring export-related ships to monitor for piracy/exports misreporting, track tourism in real time, etc. Given the global nature of the AIS data, it can also be used to analyze global supply chains, trade disruptions from natural disasters, the effect of trade policies, etc.
Keywords:
Honiara port activity; export volume; D. trade flow; import volume; Island port activity; Imports; Exports; Trade balance; COVID-19; Agroindustries; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Andras Komaromi
,
Yang Liu
, and
Mamoon Saeed
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Keywords:
port visit; machine-learning technique; data from the Automatic Identification System; port call; trade activity; Imports; Exports; Oil; Machine learning; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, Fall-Winter 2019
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
Keywords:
IRB; trade; debt measurement; exporter; policy session; firm; Mundell-Fleming Lecture; US-China trade tension; tariff factor; Exports; Tariffs; Infrastructure; Big data; Trade liberalization; Global; East Asia; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; threshold ModelsHow; ship movement; TrajectoriesThe global financial crisis; Imports; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Marco Marini
, and
Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.
Keywords:
WP; AIS data; trade statistics; cargo load indicator; trade activity; trade data; port call data; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Imports; Big data; Exports; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach
Sandile Hlatshwayo
,
Anne Oeking
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
,
David Corvino
,
Ananya Shukla
, and
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it—and its effects—inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents’ assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts.
Keywords:
WP; NIC shock; anti-corruption effort; NIC country; corruption; anti-corruption; capacity development; big data; text analysis; event study; reform program; NIC measure; NIC level; Auditing; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Use of Technology in Tax Administrations 2: Core Information Technology Systems in Tax Administrations
Ms. Margaret Cotton
and
Gregory Dark
This technical note is the second of three addressing information technology (IT) themes and issues relevant to tax administrations. This note addresses how to select a suitable IT system for core tax administration functions. Note one covers the use of IT in tax administrations and how to develop an information technology strategic plan (ITSP). The third note focuses on implementation of a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) system. These technical notes are primarily for tax administrations that have no technology to manage their core tax processes, or their technology is limited and outdated. These notes focus on core tax functions and do not address other business systems (e.g., payroll, finance, document, and asset management systems).
Keywords:
TNM; administration; data; system; tax administration
Cover Policy Papers
Progress Report on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office
International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the activities of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) since the 2011 Annual Meetings. In this period, the IEO has advanced work on three ongoing evaluations: International Reserves: IMF Advice and Country Perspectives, The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor, and Learning from Experience at the IMF: An IEO Assessment of Self-Evaluation Systems. The IEO expects to submit these evaluations to the Executive Board over the course of the year. The IEO has begun consultations on topics for future evaluations and will present a tentative work program to the Executive Board for review in due course.
Keywords:
PP; evaluation; IEO evaluation; IMF governance; stakeholder
Cover IMF Working Papers
Technology Diffusion, Services, and Endogenous Growth in Europe. is the Lisbon Strategy Useful?
International Monetary Fund
We explore the role of business services in knowledge accumulation and growth and the determinants of knowledge diffusion including the role of distance. A continuous-time model is estimated on several European countries, Japan, and the United States. Policy simulations illustrate the benefits for EU growth of the deepening of the single market, the reduction of regulatory barriers, and the accumulation of technology and human capital. Our results support the basic insights of the Lisbon Agenda. Economic growth in Europe is enhanced to the extent that: trade in services increases, technology accumulation and diffusion increase, regulation becomes both less intensive and more uniform across countries, and human capital accumulation increases in all countries.
Keywords:
WP; rate of growth; service sector; product market; Economic integration; manufacturing and services; technology diffusion; technology accumulation; EU output growth; EU product market regulation; estimation result; EU integration; Human capital; Technology transfer; Trade in services; Information technology in revenue administration; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Trade and Productivity Growth: Exploring the Sectoral Effects for Developing Countries
Ehsan U. Choudhri
and
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
The paper estimates an empirical relation based on Krugman’s ‘technological gap’ model to explore the influence of the pattern of international trade and production on the overall productivity growth of a developing country. A key result is that increased import competition in medium-growth (but not in low- or high-growth) manufacturing sectors enhances overall productivity growth. The authors also find that a production-share weighted average of (technological leaders’) sectoral productivity growth rates has a significant effect on the rate of aggregate productivity growth.
Keywords:
WP; Productivity Growth; Trade Liberalization; Technological Gap; TFP growth rate; trade variable; trade effect; trade ratio; technology lag; s TFP growth; gap in a sector; growth performance; trade index; productivity gap; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Imports; Technology transfer; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia