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Business and Economics > Information Management

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Foreign Exchange x
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Cover FinTech Notes
The Rise of Payment and Contracting Platforms
Mr. Tobias Adrian
and
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
This Note explores the design and governance of platforms to enhance cross-border payments in line with public policy goals. While much innovation in recent years has more narrowly targeted end-user frictions, the vision in this paper is based on the mandate of the IMF, governed by the central banks and finance ministries of 190 member countries. Cross-border payments present the foundation for the global financial system, and its functioning is overseen by the IMF.
Keywords:
cross-border payments; platforms; central bank digital currencies; digital money; foreign exchange; settlement; programmability encryption; cross-border payment; note 2023/005; anatomy of payment; XC platform; platform operator; International reserves; Information and data management; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro Mariano Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
Keywords:
growth revision; consensus forecast growth revision; WEO growth forecast; consensus forecasts revision; fall-to-spring WEO revision; Technology transfer; Terms of trade; Time series analysis; Vector autoregression; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Andras Komaromi
,
Yang Liu
, and
Mamoon Saeed
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Keywords:
port visit; machine-learning technique; data from the Automatic Identification System; port call; trade activity; Imports; Exports; Oil; Machine learning; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment
Gustavo Adler
,
Mr. Nicolas E Magud
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
Keywords:
WP; commodity exporter; current account balance; exchange rate regime; terms of trade; external adjustment; current account; commodity importer; imports volume; current account response; current account dynamics; commodity price swing; Technology transfer; Exchange rate arrangements; Adjustment process; Exchange rate flexibility; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
Keywords:
WP; crisis; TOT shock; Low-income country; TOT growth
Cover IMF Working Papers
In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
and
Mr. Alexander Chudik
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
Keywords:
WP; estimation; exchange rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis
Mr. Etienne B Yehoue
and
Gilles J. Dufrénot
We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) in a sample of 64 developing countries. We study the dynamic of the RER with its economic fundamentals: productivity, the terms of trade, openness, and government spending. We derive a number of common factors that explain the dynamic of the RER in our sample. We find that while some fundamentals such as productivity, terms of trade, and openness are strongly related to these common factors in low-income countries, no such link is found for the middle-income countries. We also derive the misalignment indices, which seem to reproduce recent episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation in a number of countries.
Keywords:
WP; terms of trade; time series; Real exchange rate misalignment; panel co-integration; common factor; developing countries; confidence interval; monetary policy; OLS estimator; equilibrium exchange rate; estimation result; critical value; currency appreciation; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Exchange rates; Currencies; Technology transfer; Global