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Ms. Margaret Cotton
and
Gregory Dark
This technical note is the second of three addressing information technology (IT) themes and issues relevant to tax administrations. This note addresses how to select a suitable IT system for core tax administration functions. Note one covers the use of IT in tax administrations and how to develop an information technology strategic plan (ITSP). The third note focuses on implementation of a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) system. These technical notes are primarily for tax administrations that have no technology to manage their core tax processes, or their technology is limited and outdated. These notes focus on core tax functions and do not address other business systems (e.g., payroll, finance, document, and asset management systems).
Gustavo Adler
,
Mr. Nicolas E Magud
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
International Monetary Fund
This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) report entitled Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF: An IEO Evaluation. The implementation plan proposes specific actions to address the recommendations of the IEO that were endorsed by the Board in its March 17, 2016 discussion of the IEO’s report, namely: (i) develop a long-term strategy for data and statistics at the Fund; (ii) define and prioritize the Fund’s data needs and support data provision by member countries accordingly; (iii) reconsider the role and mandate of the Statistics Department; (iv) reexamine the staff’s structure of incentives in the area of data management; (v) make clear the limits of IMF responsibility regarding the quality of disseminated data, and clarify the distinction between “IMF data” and “official data.” The implementation of some of these proposed actions is already underway. The paper also explains how implementation will be monitored.
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
,
Alexander Herman
, and
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
This paper analyzes saving patterns and determinants in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), including key policy variables and regimes. The review of previous empirical studies on LAC saving reveals contradictions and omissions. This paper presents empirical results of an extensive search of determinants of private and public saving rates, adding previously neglected variables (including different measures of key external prices and macroeconomic policy regimes), in linear form and in interactions with other saving determinants. It analyzes statistical differences in saving determinants between LAC and the rest of the world in a nested econometric framework, and discusses differences across three country subgroups within LAC. The results highlight commonalities and differences in saving behavior between LAC and other world regions, as well as within LAC, identifying the role of key policy variables and regimes.
International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the activities of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) since the 2011 Annual Meetings. In this period, the IEO has advanced work on three ongoing evaluations: International Reserves: IMF Advice and Country Perspectives, The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor, and Learning from Experience at the IMF: An IEO Assessment of Self-Evaluation Systems. The IEO expects to submit these evaluations to the Executive Board over the course of the year. The IEO has begun consultations on topics for future evaluations and will present a tentative work program to the Executive Board for review in due course.
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
and
Mr. Alexander Chudik
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Data Module for Pakistan. Based on the review of Pakistan’s statistical practices, recommendations are made that are aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s adherence to the internationally accepted practices, as well as at enhancing the usefulness of its monetary statistics. For the central bank’s survey, it is recommended to revalue the State Bank of Pakistan’s Fund positions and gold assets on a monthly basis at end-month market exchange rates and market gold prices.
Tehmina S. Khan
Total factor productivity (TFP) of 14 manufacturing sectors in France has kept up with that of the United States during 1980-2002 and remained well above that of the United Kingdom. Estimates using a dynamic panel equilibrium correction model indicate that sectors further behind the technological frontier experience faster productivity growth and that spending on research and development and trade with technologically advanced economies positively influences TFP growth, but not the speed of convergence. Conversely, TFP growth is negatively related to some key labor market variables, namely the replacement ratio and the ratio of the minimum wage to the median wage.
Mr. Etienne B Yehoue
and
Gilles J. Dufrénot
We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) in a sample of 64 developing countries. We study the dynamic of the RER with its economic fundamentals: productivity, the terms of trade, openness, and government spending. We derive a number of common factors that explain the dynamic of the RER in our sample. We find that while some fundamentals such as productivity, terms of trade, and openness are strongly related to these common factors in low-income countries, no such link is found for the middle-income countries. We also derive the misalignment indices, which seem to reproduce recent episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation in a number of countries.