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Business and Economics > Natural Resource Extraction

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition
Mr. Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer
Limiting climate change requires a 80 percent reduction in fossil fuel extraction until 2050. What are the macroeconomic consequences for fossil fuel producing countries? We identify 35 episodes of persistent, exogenous declines in extraction based on a new data-set for 13 minerals (oil, gas, coal, metals) and 122 countries since 1950. We use local projections to estimate effects on real output as well as the external and the domestic sectors. Declines in extractive activity lead to persistent negative effects on real GDP and the trade balance. The real exchange rate depreciates but not enough to offset the decline in net exports. Effects on low-income countries are significantly larger than on high-income countries. Results suggest that legacy effects of bad institutions could prevent countries from benefiting from lower resource extraction.
Keywords:
Resource-rich countries; energy transition; fossil fuels; macroeconomics; development; climate policies; legacy effect; limiting climate change; commodity price data; aggregate output; interaction term; low income; real GDP response; open economy; Mining sector; Non-renewable resources; Consumption; Manufacturing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mining Revenues and Inclusive Development in Guinea
Alejandro Badel and Rachel Fredman Lyngaas
What are the potential benefits of increasing the taxation of a foreign extractive sector? This paper applies this question to the case of Guinea by using a multi-sector macro-inequality model with heterogeneous agents. We quantify the long-run equilibrium impact of additional taxation when the proceeds are invested in human capital, inclusive infrastructure, and social transfers. Our analysis focuses on the response of GDP, labor formalization, poverty rates, Gini coefficients, rural/urban inequality and sectoral reallocation. The three forms of investment are complementary. Infrastructure investments favor formal production in the urban area while growth and government transfers boost the demand for food. These effects help support the rate of return to education, protecting job formalization through higher wages and prices of informal goods, as the education policy boosts labor supply in rural and urban areas.
Keywords:
Infrastructure; growth; output; inequality; calibration; heterogeneous agents; incomplete markets.; infrastructure investment; IMF working paper 23/90; long-run equilibrium impact; Laffer curve; opportunity cost; Consumption; Mining sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Following a coup d’état in September 2021 and a year of socio-political tension, the situation has stabilized after the authorities agreed with ECOWAS on a revised, shorter (24-month) transition calendar. While the non-mining sector remains weakened by the subsequent shocks—the pandemic, political uncertainty, the global food and fuel price shock and ensuing food insecurity—overall growth remains buoyant, driven by strong mining production. Inflation hovered around 12 percent for most of 2021 and 2022, despite significant international prices pressures. Food insecurity became increasingly acute during 2022 stemming from the price shock and could be exacerbated next year.
Keywords:
price shock; oil price hike; IMF budget support; money market rate; FX auction; fertilizer price; Mining sector; Inflation; Food security; Global; Africa; West Africa