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Business and Economics > Corporate Taxation

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Broadening the Gains from Generative AI: The Role of Fiscal Policies
Fernanda Brollo
,
Era Dabla-Norris
,
Ruud de Mooij
,
Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Tibor Hanappi
,
Li Liu
, and
Anh D. M. Nguyen
Generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) holds immense potential to boost productivity growth and advance public service delivery, but it also raises profound concerns about massive labor disruptions and rising inequality. This note discusses how fiscal policies can be employed to steer the technology and its deployment in ways that serve humanity best while cushioning the negative labor market and distributional effects to broaden the gains. Given the vast uncertainty about the nature, impact, and speed of developments in gen AI, governments should take an agile approach that prepares them for both business as usual and highly disruptive scenarios.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; AI; technological change; labor market; fiscal policy; social protection systems; tax systems; IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN2024/002; gen AI; advance public service delivery; role of fiscal policies; replacement ratio; job displacement; income support; tax treatment; market power; Labor markets; Corporate income tax; Automation; Capital income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Efficient Economic Rent Taxation under a Global Minimum Corporate Tax
Shafik Hebous
and
Andualem Mengistu
The international agreement on a corporate minimum tax is a milestone in global corporate tax arrangements. The minimum tax disturbs the equivalence between otherwise equivalent forms of efficient economic rent taxation: cash-flow tax and allowance for corporate equity. The marginal effective tax rate initially declines as the statutory tax rate rises, reaching zero where the minimum tax is inapplicable, and increases thereafter. This kink occurs at a lower statutory rate under cash-flow taxation. We relax the assumption of full loss offset; provide a routine for computing effective rates under different designs; and discuss policy implications of the minimum tax.
Keywords:
Investment; Minimum Taxation; Corporate Tax Reform; International Taxation; Rent Tax; ACE; Effective Tax Rate; policy implication; top-up tax; minimum tax; depreciation rate; Cash-flow tax; Allowance for corporate equity; Marginal effective tax rate; Average effective tax rate; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Searching for Wage Growth: Policy Responses to the “New Machine Age”
Andrew Berg
,
Edward F Buffie
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
The current wave of technological revolution is changing the way policies work. This paper examines the growth and distributional implications of three policies when “robot'' capital (a broad definition of robots, Artificial Intelligence, computers, big data, digitalization, networks, sensors and servos) is introduced in a neoclassical growth model. 1) cuts to the corporate tax rate; 2) increases in education spending; and 3) increases in infrastructure investment. We find that incorporating “robot'' capital into the model does make a big difference to policy outcomes: the trickle-down effects of corporate tax cuts on unskilled wages are attenuated, and the advantages of investment in infrastructure, and especially in education, are bigger. Based on our calibrations grounded on new empirical estimates, infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts dominate investment in education in a "traditional" economy. However, in an economy with “robots” the infrastructure investment dominates corporate tax cuts, while investment in education tends to produce the highest welfare gains of all. The specific results, of course, may depend on the exact modeling of the technological change, but our main results remain valid and can provide more accurate welfare rankings.
Keywords:
Technological change; Artificial Intelligence; robots; growth; income distribution; fiscal policy; public investment; education; corporate tax tax cut; way policy; infrastructure investment; IMF working paper No. 2024/3; ICT capital; Robotics; Skilled labor; Unskilled labor; Wages; Europe; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Corporate Income Tax Gap Estimation by using Bottom-Up Techniques in Selected Countries: Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program
Patricio A Barra
,
Mr. Eric Hutton
, and
Polina Prokof'yeva
This technical note describes bottom-up CIT gap estimation techniques applied by revenue administrations in the following highly experienced countries in this approach: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The main topics included in the descriptions are techniques applied, CIT gap results, advantages and disadvantages of different available options, and future developments and recommendations for any revenue administration interested in starting bottom-up CIT gap estimation programs having no prior experience.
Keywords:
Tax Administration; Tax Compliance; Corporate Income Tax; Tax Gap; Tax Evasion; Random Audit Program; Risk-Based Audits; bottom-up technique; CIT gap; gap definition; Ra-GAP team; members of the Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program; Auditing; Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP); Small and medium enterprises
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Tax Spillovers and Tangible Investment, with Implications for the Global Minimum Tax
Mr. Michael Keen
,
Ms. Li Liu
, and
Hayley Pallan
This paper articulates and, using newly-assembled data, explores how international taxation affects aggregate tangible cross-border investment. Spillovers from statutory tax rates abroad seem: As sizable as effects from the host’s rate; larger than previous consensus values (attributed to a systematic bias from FDI data); and consistent with ‘implicit’ profit shifting through real investment (rather than ‘paper’ profit shifting). Contrary to much policy discussion, the results also imply that: Host countries’ marginal effective tax rates have at best a weak effect on real investment; those elsewhere have none; and, applied to the prospective global minimum tax, inward tangible investment in most sample countries will increase.
Keywords:
Corporate Taxation; International Tax; Multinational Investment; Foreign Direct Investment; host country; Affiliate investment; FDI data; investment impact; corporate tax tax rate; cross-border investment; Corporate income tax; Marginal effective tax rate; International tax issues; Capital account; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks
Mr. Antonio David
and
Can Sever
Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-2018, we show that implementation lags tend to be significantly longer for tax policy change announcements that are made during the pre-election periods, thereby leading to a lower likelihood of “tax news shocks”. We also find that implementation lags become much shorter for tax policy changes that are announced in the aftermath of elections, generating more frequent tax news shocks. This pattern remains similar for different tax measures or types of taxes. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including alternative definitions of tax news shocks, or to controlling for various economic and institutional factors.
Keywords:
Tax Shocks; Electoral Cycles; Political Economy; news shock; implementation lag; election period; change announcement; tax policy policy change; Probit models; Income tax systems; Consumption taxes; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents the main features and weaknesses of the current Panamanian tax system and provides an international comparison of its performance. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust, but Panama’s tax collection has been historically low. A tax system without adequate revenues led to chronic fiscal deficits and a lack of resources to invest in human capital (education and health) and promote social inclusion policies. In addition, the tax system is notably regressive, and several rules are very inefficient and distortive contradicting the overall policy objective of the country to attract investment. Taxation of the business sector is very complex. On the other hand, the system is very generous regarding benefits. Overall, the desirable reform direction is clear: A reduction in tax incentives, following their analysis, as well as stronger anti-abuse provisions, and revenues from an international minimum tax can finance reductions in the inefficient parts of the tax system, such as the multiple business taxes and the strict loss carry forward.
Keywords:
VAT indicator; directorate General; C. consumption tax; tax comparison; revenue performance; International reserves; Total factor productivity; Tax incentives; Corporate income tax; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Country Evidence on the Revenue Impact of Tax Reforms
Mr. David Amaglobeli
,
Mr. Valerio Crispolti
, and
Xuguang Simon Sheng
Many countries face the challenge of raising additional tax revenues without hurting economic growth. Comprehensive, cross-country information on the revenue impact of tax policy changes can thus support informed decision-making on viable reforms. We assess the likely revenue impact of various tax policy changes based on a sample of 21 advanced and emerging market economies, using granular information from the IMF Tax Policy Reform Database v.4.0. Our findings suggest that the revenue yield of a tax policy change varies significantly depending on the tax instrument adopted (e.g., VAT or personal income tax) and the nature of the change (i.e., rate, base). For example, in our sample, base-broadening changes to personal and corporate income taxes as well as to excise and property taxes have generally a more significant and long-lasting revenue yields than rate changes. By contrast, rate changes appear to have a relatively more significant revenue impact in the case of VAT and social security contributions. We also observe an asymmetry in the revenue impact of most tax policy measures when controlling for the direction of tax changes (i.e., its significance varies depending on whether taxes are increased or decreased). While our results are based on qualitative information of tax policy changes (i.e., dummy variables), the revenue yields of rate measures are not materially different from those that would be obtained using quantitative information on the size of the change.
Keywords:
corporate income tax; personal income tax; value added taxes; social security contributions; excise; property taxes; tax reforms; revenue yield; revenue impact; Tax-to-GDP ratio; rate change; SSC rate hike; Tax collection; Value-added tax
Cover IMF Working Papers
Excess Profit Taxes: Historical Perspective and Contemporary Relevance
Mr. Shafik Hebous
,
Dinar Prihardini
, and
Nate Vernon
This paper discusses the design of excess profits taxes (EPTs) that gained renewed interest following the COVID-19 outbreak and the recent surge in energy prices. EPTs can be designed as an efficient tax only falling on economic rent, like an allowance for corporate capital, and drawing some parallels with current proposals for reforming multinationals’ taxation. EPTs can be permanent or temporary as an add-on to the corporate income tax to support revenue during an adverse shock episode. The latter reflects experiences with EPTs during and after the World Wars. Different from that era, though, profit shifting is now a challenge. Estimation using firm-level data suggest that, at present, locations of excess profit across countries are consistent with profit shifting practices by multinationals. Destination-based EPTs can address this concern. Estimates suggest that a 10 percent EPT on the globally consolidated accounts of multinationals (on top of the current corporate income tax), with the EPT base being allocated using sales, raises global revenue by 16 percent of corporate income tax revenues. The analysis suggests that international coordination would be desirable to mitigate the risks of profit shifting and tax competition. Eventually, EPTs could mark an evolution of corporate taxation toward a non-distortionary rent tax.
Keywords:
profit shifting; profits tax; com petition; profit tax; excess profits; Corporate income tax; Allowance for corporate equity; Non-wage benefits; Corporate taxes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Foreign Investment in the United States
Ms. Thornton Matheson
,
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
,
Laura Power
, and
Thomas Brosy
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) sharply reduced effective corporate income tax rates on equity-financed US investment. This paper examines the reform’s impact on US inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in property, plant and equipment (PPE) by foreign-owned US companies. We first model effective marginal and average tax rates (EMTRs and EATRs) by country, industry, and method of finance, and then use those tax rates to calculate the tax semi-elasticities of inbound FDI and PPE investment. We find that both PPE investment and FDI financed with retained earnings responded positively to the TCJA reform, but FDI financed with new equity or debt did not. In country-level PPE regressions, inclusion of macroeconomic controls renders tax rate coefficients insignificant, suggesting that the increase in PPE investment after TCJA was driven by general economic growth. In regressions of FDI financed with retained earnings, however, tax coefficients were robust to inclusion of macroeconomic controls. As the literature predicts, EATRs have a greater impact on cross-border investment than EMTRs. Country-by-industry regressions showed a larger effect of taxes on PPE investment than aggregate country-level regressions, but industry-level tax rates appear to have no effect on earnings retention.
Keywords:
TCJA; Inbound Investment; Effective Tax Rates; PPE investment; investment in property, plant and equipment; PPE Investment; inbound foreign direct investment; tax coefficient; Effective tax rate; Foreign direct investment; Marginal effective tax rate; Average effective tax rate; Corporate income tax; Global