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Business and Economics > Corporate Taxation

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Broadening the Gains from Generative AI: The Role of Fiscal Policies
Fernanda Brollo
,
Era Dabla-Norris
,
Ruud de Mooij
,
Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Tibor Hanappi
,
Li Liu
, and
Anh D. M. Nguyen
Generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) holds immense potential to boost productivity growth and advance public service delivery, but it also raises profound concerns about massive labor disruptions and rising inequality. This note discusses how fiscal policies can be employed to steer the technology and its deployment in ways that serve humanity best while cushioning the negative labor market and distributional effects to broaden the gains. Given the vast uncertainty about the nature, impact, and speed of developments in gen AI, governments should take an agile approach that prepares them for both business as usual and highly disruptive scenarios.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; AI; technological change; labor market; fiscal policy; social protection systems; tax systems; IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN2024/002; gen AI; advance public service delivery; role of fiscal policies; replacement ratio; job displacement; income support; tax treatment; market power; Labor markets; Corporate income tax; Automation; Capital income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cash Flow Analysis of Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries
Thomas Benninger
,
Dan Devlin
,
Eduardo Camero Godinez
, and
Nate Vernon
Mining and petroleum projects share characteristics distinguishing them from other sectors of the economy, which has led to the use of dedicated fiscal regimes for these projects. The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department uses fiscal modeling to evaluate extractive industry fiscal regimes for its member countries, and trains country officials on key modeling concepts. This paper outlines important preconditions needed for effective fiscal modeling, key evaluation metrics, and emphasizes the importance of transparent modeling practices. It then examines the modeling of commonly-used fiscal instruments and highligts where their economic impact differs, and how fiscal models can inform fiscal regime design.
Keywords:
Natural resource taxation; extractive industries; progressivity; economic rents; fiscal modeling; investment analysis; mining; petroleum.; D. resource rent tax; cash flow; petroleum project; regime design; Corporate income tax; Production sharing; Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries (FARI); Oil; Carbon tax; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Moldova: Technical Assistance Report-Analysis of the Draft Law on the Anti-Corruption Judicial System and on Amending Some Normative Acts
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Upon the request of the authorities of Moldova, the Legal Department provided Technical Assistance on the establishment of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Judiciary (SAJ) in Moldova. The TA report provides analysis of the draft law on the Anti-Corruption Judicial System and other related laws, and proposes recommendations. The recommendations are informed by international standards and good practices on judicial independence and integrity, and are designed to respond to specific challenges faced by Moldova. The creation of the SAJ is an important new initiative aimed at strengthening anti-corruption efforts following the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Office (APO) in 2016. A SAJ composed of judges selected through competitive process with the participation of civil society and reputable anti-corruption experts, can significantly contribute to reducing corruption through effective adjudication of corruption cases.
Keywords:
Republic of Moldova; specialized courts; anti-corruption; rule of law; judiciary; judges; judicial independence; Pre-selection Commission; vetting.; draft law; parliament of the Republic of Moldova; legal department; subject matter jurisdiction; SAJ member; comments from the World Bank; Corruption; Allowance for corporate equity; Civil society organizations; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Searching for Wage Growth: Policy Responses to the “New Machine Age”
Andrew Berg
,
Edward F Buffie
,
Mariarosaria Comunale
,
Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
The current wave of technological revolution is changing the way policies work. This paper examines the growth and distributional implications of three policies when “robot'' capital (a broad definition of robots, Artificial Intelligence, computers, big data, digitalization, networks, sensors and servos) is introduced in a neoclassical growth model. 1) cuts to the corporate tax rate; 2) increases in education spending; and 3) increases in infrastructure investment. We find that incorporating “robot'' capital into the model does make a big difference to policy outcomes: the trickle-down effects of corporate tax cuts on unskilled wages are attenuated, and the advantages of investment in infrastructure, and especially in education, are bigger. Based on our calibrations grounded on new empirical estimates, infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts dominate investment in education in a "traditional" economy. However, in an economy with “robots” the infrastructure investment dominates corporate tax cuts, while investment in education tends to produce the highest welfare gains of all. The specific results, of course, may depend on the exact modeling of the technological change, but our main results remain valid and can provide more accurate welfare rankings.
Keywords:
Technological change; Artificial Intelligence; robots; growth; income distribution; fiscal policy; public investment; education; corporate tax tax cut; way policy; infrastructure investment; IMF working paper No. 2024/3; ICT capital; Robotics; Skilled labor; Unskilled labor; Wages; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of consecutive shocks. The Irish economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of recent consecutive shocks and is well-positioned to achieve a soft landing. Growth is expected to moderate to a still solid level in 2023-24, from a very high base, as tighter financial conditions, domestic capacity constraints, and weakening external demand weigh on the economy. Continued fiscal prudence is warranted to complement monetary tightening in sustaining disinflation and to build adequate buffers for the future. As fiscal policy should avoid adding to aggregate demand amid still elevated inflation, tax revenue over performance should be saved. The 2023 fiscal stance is appropriate. Fiscal policy should support growth-enhancing investment and broaden the tax base. The authorities’ decision to save part of excess corporate income tax revenues in two savings funds is welcome. Tighter financial conditions, persistent inflation, and rising vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate market with linkages to leveraged non-banks call for continued heightened vigilance of financial stability risks.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; inflation development; transparency policy; money market rate; quarterly balance of payments; growth-enhancing investment; Medium-term fiscal policy; persistent inflation; Ireland's economy; Housing; Inflation; Corporate income tax; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Ireland focuses on ensuring an inclusive and growth-enhancing fiscal policy mix. It assesses the scope for improving the tax system toward a more growth-friendly structure, and for achieving efficiency gains in public expenditure. It also discusses upcoming impediments to long term fiscal sustainability and proposes options to achieve a more growth friendly and equity-enhancing revenue and expenditure policy mix. Under the 2021 National Development Plan, the government plans to significantly expand investment to historically high levels over the medium term. Good progress has been achieved in raising public spending efficiency but there is scope for further improvement. The stylized facts highlight the need for reforms to broaden the tax base and find new and stable sources of revenues as well as improving public expenditure efficiency. Public spending should focus on growth-friendly spending and reducing efficiency gaps. Decisive reforms are needed to ensure the future sustainability of the pension system and safeguard long term fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
expenditure needs; GROWTH-ENHANCING fiscal policy mix; disparity in Ireland; spending pressure; OECD housing affordability database; Income inequality; Income; Corporate income tax; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Policy for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Samuel Pienknagura
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
This study provides an overview of tax structures in LAC before the COVID-19 pandemic, compares it to OECD countries, and provides recommendations for growth-friendly and inclusive tax policy reforms. LAC countries collect significantly lower tax revenue relative to OECD countries and have tax structures that rely excessively on corporate-income taxes (CIT) while personal-income taxes (PIT) remain largely underutilized. LAC countries could strengthen their PIT to mobilize revenue and improve progressivity by addressing critical design flaws. Possible adverse growth effects could be mitigated by providing incentives to labor force participation and formalization (e.g., through earned-income tax credits). The ongoing global corporate income tax reforms present a great opportunity to reassess thoroughly the CIT in LAC. Specifically, reforms would need to focus on aligning CIT statutory rates with those of other regions—when assessed to be relatively high—to attract investment and alleviate profit shifting, and on broadening the corporate tax base. Value-added taxes (VAT) could be improved by tackling exemptions and reduced rates. Furthermore, while estimates of additional revenue from levying the VAT on the digital economy appear modest, taxing this sector as others in the economy is critical to avoid further tax base erosion.
Keywords:
Taxation; Progressivity; Inclusive Growth; Latin America and the Caribbean; OECD tax revenue statistics database; OECD sample; OECD countries sample; income level; OECD distribution; OECD group; OECD member; OECD benchmark; PIT revenue; Personal income tax; Corporate income tax; Income tax systems; Income and capital gains taxes; Caribbean; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Digitalization and Taxation in Asia
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Ruud de Mooij
,
Andrew Hodge
,
Jan Loeprick
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Ms. Alpa Shah
,
Sebastian Beer
,
Sonja Davidovic
,
Arbind M Modi
, and
Fan Qi
Digitalization in Asia is pervasive, unique, and growing. It stands out by its sheer scale, with internet users far exceeding numbers in other regions. This facilitates e-commerce in markets that are large by international standards, supported by innovative payment systems and featuring major corporate players, including a number of large, home-grown, highly digitalized businesses (tech giants) that rival US multinational enterprises (MNEs) in size. Opportunity for future growth exists, as a significant population share remains unconnected.
Keywords:
reform option; tech giant; tax design; reform proposal; OECD-Inclusive Framework; Value-added tax; Corporate income tax; Income and capital gains taxes; Digitalization; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ireland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Irish economy continues to expand strongly, benefitting from higher net exports by multinational enterprises and robust domestic demand. Accelerating wage growth reflects tight labor market conditions and inflation has started to pick up. Crisis legacies have diminished but some vulnerabilities persist. The outlook remains broadly positive, provided Brexit proceeds in an orderly manner. However, the economy operates near full capacity and an accelerating cyclical momentum could re-ignite a boom-bust dynamic. A no-deal Brexit represents the key downside risk, while escalation in global protectionism and sudden changes in corporate tax planning of multinational enterprises in Ireland could adversely affect the economy and public finances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Ireland; headline inflation; housing supply strategy; central bank of Ireland; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; welfare benefits system; IMF staff; potential GDP; Corporate income tax; Housing; Financial sector; Credit; Global; Europe