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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The paper examines domestic revenue mobilization in Mauritania and proposes strategies to enhance tax revenue collection to address fiscal sustainability challenges and finance critical investment projects. Despite recent progress, Mauritania’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains below that of its peers, constrained by a complex legal framework, numerous derogatory tax regimes, and inefficiencies in revenue administration. The analysis indicates that Mauritania could increase tax revenues by up to 3.4% of GDP in the medium term, thus reducing its tax gap by one-third. Key policy recommendations include reducing VAT exemptions, replacing corporate tax exemptions with cost-based incentives, reforming the personal income tax system, broadening the consumption tax base, simplifying tax procedures, managing tax arrears more effectively, and strengthening tax compliance.
Telma Yamou
,
Alun H. Thomas
, and
Kaihao Cai
This paper examines the relationship between citizens’ perceptions of tax authorities and the governments’ efficiency in collecting VAT and CIT revenues in Africa. Drawing on data from 32 countries over 2014-2019, we find a negative and significant association between negative perceptions of trust in authorities (the tax department) from the Afrobarometer survey and tax efficiency for these revenue categories. A 1 percent increase in the share of citizens’ perception of little or no trust in the tax department leads to a 0.22 percent decrease in VAT tax efficiency, controlling for macroeconomic indicators. The magnitude of the effect is significantly greater in fragile compared to non-fragile states. For corporate income tax productivity focusing on tax payments of corporates we find a significant effect only in fragile states. Perceptions about corruption in tax authorities have a similar effect on VAT and CIT tax efficiency since perceptions about trust and corruption capture the tendency to misappropriate revenues but we are unable to distinguish the two effects except for fragile states. Our findings suggest that in the face of fragility, policies aimed at improving fiscal capacity should place a high importance on ensuring that citizens believe resources will be used properly, an aspect of tax policy not typically prioritized.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on empowering diverse futures. The economy of Djibouti grew at an unprecedented rate during the last decade, but the investment-led economic expansion did not translate into tangible labor market’s improvements. The capital-intensive nature of the country’s growth model limits job creation, while growing skill mismatches in the labor market have increased structural unemployment. While access to education has increased dramatically since the 2000s, more could be done in improving the quality of education and expanding vocational and adult learning. Moreover, stepping-up diversification would support the development of more labor-intensive sectors, further spreading the benefits from growth to all Djiboutians. The timely collection of labor market statistics remains a key constraint for supporting decision-making and job creation. The design and implementation of adequate policy frameworks to foster job creation requires complete and timely labor market data. The frequent collection of basic labor market data, such the unemployment rate, remains a priority for policy design and implementation.
Cedric Andrew
and
Ms. Katherine Baer
A previous IMF Working Paper on value-added tax (VAT) refunds (WP/07/31, by Keen and Smith) describes the main forms of VAT noncompliance and concludes that VAT is susceptible to evasion and fraud like any other tax. This paper shows the insidious nature and extent of VAT refund fraud in selected EU countries and argues that this type of noncompliance requires tax administrations to adopt a coordinated strategy and deploy a range of countermeasures to combat this threat. Because such fraud is primarily a criminal legal issue, tackling it successfully will require cooperation, both internationally between VAT administrations and nationally between tax authorities and the judiciary. The paper’s focus is primarily on advanced economies in the context of the EU, but many of the recommendations are applicable to emerging market and developing countries. A separate IMF How to Note discusses managing VAT refunds in developing countries.
Mr. Antonio David
and
Can Sever
Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-2018, we show that implementation lags tend to be significantly longer for tax policy change announcements that are made during the pre-election periods, thereby leading to a lower likelihood of “tax news shocks”. We also find that implementation lags become much shorter for tax policy changes that are announced in the aftermath of elections, generating more frequent tax news shocks. This pattern remains similar for different tax measures or types of taxes. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including alternative definitions of tax news shocks, or to controlling for various economic and institutional factors.
Jean-François Wen
Turnover taxes are prevalent in developing countries as a simple form of presumptive taxation of business income. Such simplified tax regimes can reduce the relatively high compliance costs of micro and small enterprises, which might otherwise discourage entrepreneurs from formalizing their activities and paying taxes. The note addresses design issues for a turnover tax regime—which taxes it replaces, what the criteria are for eligibility, how to determine the optimal threshold, and how to set the tax rate. A key observation is that, although low turnover tax rates may incite larger firms to artificially reduce their sales, the rate should also not be so high as to discourage formalization of activities. A table of tax rates and turnover thresholds observed internationally is provided. The note concludes by suggesting analytical steps to guide practitioners in designing turnover tax regimes.
Antoine Cornevin
,
Mr. Juan C Flores
, and
Juan Pablo Angel
This paper provides new empirical evidence on tax buoyancy (tax revenues responsiveness to changes in economic activity) over the period 1990-2020 using a large panel of 185 countries. This study compares short-term and long-term buoyancy coefficients for total tax revenues and different individual taxes by reviewing and contrasting a range of estimators. Our results broadly confirm the main body of the literature on long-term buoyancy hovering around one. We find evidence of lower estimates for short-term buoyancy relative to previous literature, suggesting a limited automatic stabilization power of taxes. As a robustness exercise, in addition to changes in tax rates, we introduce novel control variables for tax exemptions and bases to disentangle discretionary from automatic tax revenue changes. The marginal changes in the results when controlling for policy actions suggest that, on average, the economic cycle does not necessarily influence tax reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report identifies tax policy reform options to stop the drain on Lebanon’s tax revenue in the immediate and near terms and to move toward a more efficient, effective, and inclusive tax system in the medium term. Lebanon entered the economic crisis already with one of the world’s most skewed income and wealth distributions toward the affluent. Reversing the downward trend in tax revenue and improving the entire tax policy design are thus critical elements of the overall needed reforms for Lebanon to steer its way out of the crisis and modernize its economy. The analysis emphasizes the need for a holistic view of the tax system to guide reforms and balance the trade-offs, rather than a piecemeal approach with ad hoc uncoordinated measures—and for a strategic, sequenced approach to developing a rapid and powerful emergence from current difficulties. Excises are an efficient way to reduce pollution, generating marked environmental benefits and significant revenue, with a modest impact on prices. In line with international best practices, professionals should be taxed in the real profits’ regime and with the use of withholding taxes on payments to professionals for services.
Mr. David Amaglobeli
,
Mr. Valerio Crispolti
, and
Xuguang Simon Sheng
Many countries face the challenge of raising additional tax revenues without hurting economic growth. Comprehensive, cross-country information on the revenue impact of tax policy changes can thus support informed decision-making on viable reforms. We assess the likely revenue impact of various tax policy changes based on a sample of 21 advanced and emerging market economies, using granular information from the IMF Tax Policy Reform Database v.4.0. Our findings suggest that the revenue yield of a tax policy change varies significantly depending on the tax instrument adopted (e.g., VAT or personal income tax) and the nature of the change (i.e., rate, base). For example, in our sample, base-broadening changes to personal and corporate income taxes as well as to excise and property taxes have generally a more significant and long-lasting revenue yields than rate changes. By contrast, rate changes appear to have a relatively more significant revenue impact in the case of VAT and social security contributions. We also observe an asymmetry in the revenue impact of most tax policy measures when controlling for the direction of tax changes (i.e., its significance varies depending on whether taxes are increased or decreased). While our results are based on qualitative information of tax policy changes (i.e., dummy variables), the revenue yields of rate measures are not materially different from those that would be obtained using quantitative information on the size of the change.