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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Just as uncertainty associated with COVID-19 pandemic was abating, Russia invaded Ukraine. Uncertainty endured, shifting from pandemic to war, affecting all countries but in different ways. Above-target inflation rates and inflation surprises have helped reducing debt-to-GDP ratios but such relief is often temporary. High uncertainty and marked divergences across countries require a tailored and agile fiscal policy response that is ready to adjust as the outlook becomes clearer. Fiscal policy will need to shift focus away from the exceptional pandemic-related measures as central banks increase interest rates to fight inflation. Emerging and developing economies that are net importers of energy and food will be hit the hardest by surging international prices. Many of these countries already experience scarring from the pandemic and have little fiscal space to tackle new spending pressures. Government should focus on those most affected by the crisis and priority areas. Ensuring greater resilience through investment in health, food, and energy security from cleaner sources has become even more urgent. Global cooperation to achieve these objectives is more important now than ever. As countries strive to promote an inclusive and green recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic—and formulate responses to the immediate impacts of increased energy prices—they face shared challenges to secure tax revenues, address inequalities, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. National tax policies are under pressure to deal with cross-border spillovers—one country’s action affects other countries. Chapter 2 discusses how international coordination on tax matters (i) reduces profit shifting by multinationals and tax competition between countries; (ii) improves tax enforcement by lifting the veil of secrecy to tackle tax evasion; and (iii) limits global warming. The current energy crisis reinforces the case for coordination among major emitters to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, urging countries to not allow near-term responses to detract efforts to establish credible policies for emissions reductions in the medium term.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with India discusses that India has been among the world’s fastest-growing economies in recent years, lifting millions out of poverty. However, growth slowed to a six-year low in the first half of 2019, with both consumption and investment decelerating owing to weak, especially rural, income growth, stresses in the nonbank financial sector, and corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty. On the external sector, following a rise in vulnerabilities in 2018, stability has returned, anchored by high foreign reserve buffers and a modest current account deficit. With its strong mandate, the new government has an opportunity to reinvigorate the reform agenda aimed at boosting inclusive and sustainable growth. In the near term, given the cyclical weakness of the economy, monetary policy should maintain an easing bias at least until the projected recovery takes hold. Fiscal stimulus should be avoided given fiscal space at risk and revenue losses from the recent corporate income tax rate cut should be offset.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Swiss economy has performed relatively well since the global financial crisis. Growth compares favorably with most other advanced countries and aggregate employment has grown robustly. The fiscal position is strong and the external trade surplus remains large and stable despite several episodes of intense appreciation pressure owing to the Swiss franc’s reputation as a safe haven. Growth is expected to temporarily dip to 1.1 percent in 2019 on weakness in external demand. Risks to the outlook are tilted down. Switzerland is also facing several policy challenges: low interest rates are fueling risks in the real estate and mortgage markets; persistent subdued inflation has decreased the operational space for monetary policy; and population aging and technological change will require further upskilling and generate new demands for public resources.
Ruud A. de Mooij
and
Mr. Shafik Hebous
Tax provisions favoring corporate debt over equity finance (“debt bias”) are widely recognized as a risk to financial stability. This paper explores whether and how thin-capitalization rules, which restrict interest deductibility beyond a certain amount, affect corporate debt ratios and mitigate financial stability risk. We find that rules targeted at related party borrowing (the majority of today’s rules) have no significant impact on debt bias—which relates to third-party borrowing. Also, these rules have no effect on broader indicators of firm financial distress. Rules applying to all debt, in contrast, turn out to be effective: the presence of such a rule reduces the debt-asset ratio in an average company by 5 percentage points; and they reduce the probability for a firm to be in financial distress by 5 percent. Debt ratios are found to be more responsive to thin capitalization rules in industries characterized by a high share of tangible assets.
International Monetary Fund
This report presents an updates on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module and Fiscal Transparency for Hungary. Hungary continues to observe the Special Data Dissemination Standard specifications for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of all data categories, including the detailed template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity, and for the dissemination of advance release calendars. Progress has been made in the project to revise the data on imputed rents, currently extrapolated from 1993 data, on the basis of more up-to-date survey data.