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Business and Economics > Corporate Taxation

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpleasant Surprises? Elections and Tax News Shocks
Mr. Antonio David
and
Can Sever
Unanticipated changes in tax policy are likely to have different macroeconomic effects compared to anticipated changes due to several mechanisms, including fiscal foresight and policy uncertainty. It is therefore important to understand what drives such policy surprises. We explore the nature of unanticipated tax policy changes by focusing on a political economy determinant of those events, namely the timing of elections. Using monthly data for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets over the period 1990-2018, we show that implementation lags tend to be significantly longer for tax policy change announcements that are made during the pre-election periods, thereby leading to a lower likelihood of “tax news shocks”. We also find that implementation lags become much shorter for tax policy changes that are announced in the aftermath of elections, generating more frequent tax news shocks. This pattern remains similar for different tax measures or types of taxes. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including alternative definitions of tax news shocks, or to controlling for various economic and institutional factors.
Keywords:
Tax Shocks; Electoral Cycles; Political Economy; news shock; implementation lag; election period; change announcement; tax policy policy change; Probit models; Income tax systems; Consumption taxes; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fiscal State-Dependent Effects of Capital Income Tax Cuts
Alexandra Fotiou
,
Ms. Wenyi Shen
, and
Susan Yang Shu-Chun
Using the post-WWII data of U.S. federal corporate income tax changes, within a Smooth Transition VAR, this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt-dependent: it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low. To explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state-dependent tax effect, the paper uses a DSGE model with regime-switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment. As government debt increases to a sufficiently high level, the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising, and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially, whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase. Also, a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; capital income tax effects; tax multiplier; fiscal policy effects; regime-switching models; non-linear DSGE model; income tax tax cut; income tax tax rate; cut effect; fiscal policy; rate data; tax revenue; capital income tax effect; cut increases government debt; output multiplier; Capital income tax; Fiscal consolidation; Corporate income tax; Consumption taxes