Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic forecasting x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023
Light on the Horizon?
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been hit by a sluggish global economy, worldwide inflation, high borrowing costs, and a cost-of-living crisis. In many cases, inflation is still too high, borrowing costs are still elevated, exchange-rate pressures persist, and political instability is an ongoing concern. To ensure that the coming rebound is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilization policies, while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development needs.

Keywords:
economic conditions; economic forecasting; Africa economic development; economic policy; sub-Saharan Africa; inflation expectation; inflation-depreciation spiral; funding squeeze; food price inflation; IMF financing arrangement; consumption basket; sub-Saharan Africa face; inflation fall; Inflation; Exchange rates; Food prices; Central bank policy rate; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
and
Tim Willems
We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first regression links sovereign spreads to fundamentals, after which residuals from this regression are deployed in a second stage to assess their impact on future outcomes (real GDP growth and the occurrence of fiscal crises). We confirm the relevance of past sovereign debt mispricing in several out-of-sample exercises, where they reduce the RMSE of real GDP growth forecasts by as much as 15 percent. This provides strong support for theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle. Our findings also suggest that countries shouldn't solely rely on spread levels when determining their fiscal strategy; underlying fundamentals should inform policy as well, since historical relationships between spreads and fundamentals often continue to apply in the medium-to-long run.
Keywords:
WP; sub; cross-validation procedure; sentiment; sovereign debt; sovereign spreads; debt crises; over-optimism; growth forecasting; real GDP growth; credit rating; growth forecast; spread discount; Current account deficits; Government consumption; Southern Europe; leave-one-out procedure; spreads data; investor sentiment
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven by strong exports and tourism, a revival of private consumption, and higher public investment. Consumer prices have largely been declining over the past two years, mainly due to lower energy and food prices. Unemployment declined only slightly since 2014 and remains very high. However, absent concrete measures to underpin some of the planned reforms, slightly higher deficit in 2016 and a slower pace of consolidation over the medium term are projected.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government share; IMF staff estimate; Croatian authorities; authorities' NRP; government deposit; Loans; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
Mr. Ales Bulir
,
Jaromír Hurník
, and
Ms. Katerina Smídková
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation factor; inflation report; correlation Between Reported; inflation target; report communication; Inflation targeting; Kalman filter; monetary policy communication; correlation coefficient; inflation expectation; inflation deviation; Inflation; Exchange rates; Communications in revenue administration; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)
Mr. Douglas Laxton
,
Mr. Alasdair Scott
, and
David Rose
This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.
Keywords:
WP; IFT regime; data problem; staff motivation; central bank; exchange rate; output gap
Cover IMF Working Papers
Writing Clearly: ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication
Mr. Martin Cihak
,
Ms. Katerina Smídková
, and
Mr. Ales Bulir
The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even better than, other central banks for which a similar analysis is available. We also find that the additional information contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In particular, the Bulletins contain useful clarifying information on individual inflation factors and the overall forecast risk; in contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary shocks has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; monetary policy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports
Ms. Katerina Smídková
,
Viktor Kotlán
,
David Navrátil
, and
Mr. Ales Bulir
Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.
Keywords:
WP; inflation report; inflation forecast; inflation target; inflation factor
Cover IMF Working Papers
Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB
Mr. Ales Bulir
and
Ms. Katerina Smídková
The Czech National Bank has a respectable track record in terms of its policy actions and the corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule, we find that its main communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, verbal assessments of the inflation risks contained in quarterly inflation reports, and the voting within the CNB Board-provided a clear message in about three out of every four observations in our 2001- 2005 sample.
Keywords:
WP; inflation report; monetary policy meeting; communication tool; CNB monetary policy; inflation target; inflation-targeting central bank
Cover IMF Working Papers
Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction
Athanasios Orphanides
,
Spencer Dale
, and
Pär Österholm
Much of the information communicated by central banks is noisy or imperfect. This paper considers the potential benefits and limitations of central bank communications in a model of imperfect knowledge and learning. It is shown that the value of communicating imperfect information is ambiguous. There is a risk that the central bank can distract the public; this means that the central bank may prefer to focus its communication policies on the information it knows most about. Indeed, conveying more certain information may improve the public's understanding to the extent that it "crowds out" a role for communicating imperfect information.
Keywords:
WP; central bank communications; inflation expectation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Staff Report for the 1999 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
For the past quarter century, Switzerland’s real per capita growth rate has been substantially slower than in most other industrial countries. Unemployment has declined rapidly to 2.4 percent of the labor force in November 1999 from its 1997 peak of more than 5 percent. Inflation has edged up from exceptionally low levels. Switzerland’s longstanding current account surplus was above 9 percent of gross domestic product in 1998 and is estimated to have risen further in 1999. The franc has shadowed the euro closely since January 1999, fluctuating narrowly around 1.6 Sw F/euro.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline CPI inflation; inflation risk; interest rate; consumer confidence; staff appraisal; headline inflation; euro area economy; growth prospect; Inflation; Price stabilization; Budget planning and preparation; Europe; Global