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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
The Gambia: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment Update with the Climate Module
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) conducted a Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and Climate Module (C-PIMA) for The Gambia to assess public investment management (PIM) and its climate sensitivity. The assessment found improvements since the 2019 PIMA, including the 2020 Cabinet Memorandum for strategic project reviews, the 2023 SOE Act for centralized oversight, and enhanced procurement regulations. However, despite these institutional improvements, effectiveness has yet to catch up and, in some cases, has weakened. Climate resilience is also insufficiently addressed, with weak integration of climate risks into project planning and outdated regulatory frameworks. Key recommendations include establishing a public investment management information system, strengthening PIM oversight within the Ministry of Finance, formalizing project selection pipelines, and embedding climate-related criteria in investment decisions.
Keywords:
The Gambia; investment; PIM; PIMA; Climate; Climate Module; C-PIMA.; management institution; procurement authority; IMF climate policy diagnostic; capital cash outlay; D. investment allocation; climate PIMA; Public investment spending; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Methodology and Overview of the IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Database
Mario Mansour
,
Marijn Verhoeven
,
Fayçal Sawadogo
, and
Benedict Chu Sheen Tan
This note presents the methodology behind the IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Database, a comprehensive data set that tracks government revenue trends since the early 1990s. With data for 193 countries, including 190 IMF member countries, the World Revenue Longitudinal Database provides policymakers, researchers, and the public with invaluable insights into the evolution of the level and composition of revenues and tax revenues. It is a unique, consistent, and reliable source for comparing countries around the world, helping to shape policies that support the Sustainable Development Goals, climate action, and economic equity. Updated annually, the database and accompanying technical note provide a concise overview of recent revenue developments, data revisions, and methodological improvements, making it an essential resource for understanding revenue mobilization developments at the global level.
Keywords:
World Revenue Longitudinal Database; tax revenues; nontax revenues; tax potential; IMF's World Revenue Longitudinal Database; data IMF Library; IMF region; IMF's World revenue; revenue development; Income tax systems; Income and capital gains taxes; Government finance statistics; Natural resources; Global; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; Middle East and Central Asia; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Post-Pandemic Changes to Chile’s Financial Markets: Chile
Tatsushi Okuda
Pension fund withdrawals, rising public debt, and the Central Bank of Chile’s pandemic liquidity injections have reshaped Chile’s financial landscape. In the context of the diminished demand for local bonds, large non-financial corporations and the government relied more on foreign investors. Overall, Chile’s financial depth has diminished, and markets have become more volatile and sensitive to shocks. Restoring pension funds as well as continuing to strengthen market resilience and crisis response capabilities are essential for ensuring future financial stability.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; Financial depth; Pension fund withdrawal; market resilience; pandemic liquidity injection; Chile's financial markets; I. Chilean pension funds; Pension spending; Sovereign bonds; Bonds; Corporate bonds; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters
Ha Nguyen
,
Alan Feng
, and
Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
Climate change is causing more frequent and devastating natural disasters. The goal of this paper is two-fold. First, it examines the dynamic effects of natural disasters on the growth of output and its components. Government expenditure in advanced economies (AEs) rises immediately in the same year of the natural disaster, offsetting the decline in private investment growth and thereby mitigating the negative effect on output growth. As a result, output growth in AEs is not significantly affected by natural disasters. In contrast, the increase in government expenditure in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) after a natural disaster is smaller and thus, unable to mitigate the contemporaneous negative effect on output growth (which mainly reflects the fall in investment in non-small-island EMDEs and in net exports in small-island EMDEs). In addition, the output recovery in the subsequent year does not fully offset the decline during the year of the disaster. Second, this paper assesses the role of pre-existing country characteristics in mitigating the adverse impact of natural disasters. The paper finds that small islands and countries with limited pre-disaster fiscal space tend to experience more significant declines in output growth following a natural disaster.
Keywords:
Natural disasters; economic growth; robustness check; export commodity price shock; output recovery; growth of output; aggregate impact; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal space; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks in the Presence of Rising Risk of Natural Disasters
Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
,
Jessie Kilembe
, and
Do Yeon Park
This study investigates the impact of rising risk of natural disasters on rule-based fiscal frameworks. It explores the extent to which countries adhere to their fiscal rules in the presence of rising risk of natural disasters. To ensure a consistent analysis, we construct an index measuring the strenghth of fiscal rules, utilizing principal component analysis for a panel of 104 countries. The study employs a panel two-stage least squares estimation method to assess the impact of natural disaster risks on fiscal rules. The results, which are robust across various country groupings, suggest that natural disaster risks play a significant role in the determination of rule-based fiscal framework. After controlling for other determinants, the results show that countries with established fiscal rules are strengthening these rules in response to rising natural disaster risks. Nonetheless, the results are mixed across different country groups, with varying magnitude of impact. This suggests that countries currently operating fiscal rules will need to enhance their efforts to more comprehensively integrate natural disaster risks into their fiscal frameworks.
Keywords:
Fiscal Framework; Fiscal Rules; Natural Disasters; Fiscal sustainability; exposure risk index; natural disaster risk; risk of natural disasters; government climate investment profile; high-ERI country; Fiscal governance; Fiscal risks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Through end-June 2024, Grenada’s economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in budget balances, a build-up of government deposits, and a reduction in public debt. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl caused damage in excess of 16 percent of GDP on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as in the northern parishes of the main island, affecting around 15 percent of the population. In response, the authorities triggered the suspension of fiscal rules to permit temporary deficit spending in support of the recovery and reconstruction.
Keywords:
infrastructure investment facility; IIP source data; TA mission; CBI revenue; tourism infrastructure; CBI program; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria, Second Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Niger remains trapped in high levels of fragility and conflict, which are exacerbated by climate shocks. This year, flooding combined with heavy rain affected more than 1.5 million people. The socio-political environment remains challenging. Political instability and sanctions following the military takeover in July 2023 have severely and persistently affected economic and social conditions. There is still no timetable for the political transition after the military takeover and insecurity remains acute, particularly outside the capital Niamey. The authorities are finalizing a new development strategy, the Resilience Program for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (PRSP).
Keywords:
oil revenue management strategy; debt service arrears; e-government service; climate strategy; RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY; management strategy; Arrears; Climate change; Global; West Africa