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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia’s inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies. The combination of sizable fiscal imbalances, declining natural gas exports, a loss of access to international markets, and the ongoing monetization of the deficit in the context of an exchange rate peg have eroded competitiveness, depleted reserves, and left Bolivia in a precarious position.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
A new Government of National Unity (GNU) has been in place since June 2024, which the markets have welcomed. The GNU faces difficult challenges: declining GDP per capita, high unemployment, poverty and inequality, and rising public debt and debt service, which crowd out other urgent spending needs. Its fresh mandate represents an opportunity to pursue ambitious reforms to safeguard macroeconomic stability and address these challenges, placing the economy on a path toward higher, more inclusive, and greener growth.
Keywords:
support policy credibility; headline inflation; debt management strategy; Policy recommendation; implementation framework; Policy credibility; Government debt management; Exchange rate arrangements; Currency markets; Africa; Global; private sector; short-term debt; Financial sector stability; Inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Board approved Ethiopia’s request for a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF arrangement) in July 2024 to support the authorities’ Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda. The Fund-supported program addresses macroeconomic imbalances, aiming to restore external debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for high, private sector-led growth. Strong ownership has underpinned early success of reforms, strengthening support for the authorities’ program. Foreign exchange (FX) market functioning is improving; and initial steps to modernize monetary policy, mobilize domestic revenue, enhance social safety nets, strengthen state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and anchor financial stability are promising, with continued commitment needed to sustain their success. Debt discussions with the Official Creditor Committee of the Common Framework are advancing. Staff assesses that there is sufficient progress towards an agreement on the key terms of a debt treatment consistent with reaching a moderate risk of debt distress by the end of the program.
Keywords:
debt treatment option; inflation outturn; OCC members' feedback; debut listing; staff appraisal; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt service; Debt sustainability; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Haiti: Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Recent developments. Haiti is facing exceptionally challenging circumstances. The deteriorating security environment, which reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024, has continued to worsen, disrupting supply chains (particularly energy and basic services) and feeding inflationary pressures. In November 2024, Haiti's transitional Presidential Council designated Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé to form a new government with a time-bound mandate through next elections. The government has a narrow but important window of opportunity to implement reforms that could help restore the country’s potential over the medium term.
Keywords:
governance Diagnostic Report; SMP lapse; government priority; transparency policy; management of the International Monetary Fund; PROGRAM monitoring; SMP commitment; Credit; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Albania is on track to be one of the fastest growing economies in Europe in 2024, underpinned by tourism and prudent macroeconomic policies. Despite this strong performance, GDP per capita stands at just around a quarter of the EU-15 level. The economy is also facing structural headwinds, stemming from rapid population aging, emigration, low productivity, and governance shortcomings.
Keywords:
EU convergence criteria; EU accession discussion; EU accession; Youth Guarantee program; EU standard; Exchange rates; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The authorities’ commitment to a range of policy reforms continues to strengthen macroeconomic stability. The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, the public debt is declining, and international bond spreads are at historic lows. The Final Investment Decision (FID) to develop a large offshore oil field was announced on October 1. Moody’s has upgraded Suriname’s sovereign debt rating and changed the outlook to positive.
Keywords:
Surinamese authorities; tax authorities; debt sustainability outlook; recapitalization plan; B. data standard; governance reform agenda; policy priority; management framework; government procurement; Monetary base; International reserves; Exchange rates; Arrears; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
How Has Dollarization Served Timor-Leste So Far?
Raju Huidrom
and
Danila Smirnov
This paper analyzes Timor-Leste’s historical economic performance and structure under dollarization. It considers several dimensions that determine the benefits and costs of the regime: (i) growth and inflation performance; (ii) business and financial cycle synchronization; (iii) adjustment to external shocks; and (iv) competitiveness. Dollarization has helped Timor-Leste achieve relatively low and stable inflation in the context of post conflict fragility, but may be contributing to weakening competitiveness. Improved performance under dollarization requires reduced fiscal imbalances and advancement of reforms that address structural bottlenecks that also undermine competitiveness.
Keywords:
Dollarization; business cycles; competitiveness; I. data description; inflation performance; Asia-Pacific department; weakening competitiveness; structure under dollarization; Inflation; Real effective exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Timor-Leste’s historical economic performance and structure under dollarization. It considers several dimensions that determine the benefits and costs of the regime: (1) growth and inflation performance; (2) business and financial cycle synchronization; (3) adjustment to external shocks; and (4) competitiveness. Dollarization has helped Timor-Leste achieve relatively low and stable inflation in the context of post conflict fragility, but may be contributing to weakening competitiveness. The severe overvaluation of the real effective exchange rate, following a series of external shocks in the past 10 years may be a contributing factor in addition to the structural bottlenecks that constrain the development of the private sector. While the choice of currency regime lies with the authorities, progress at addressing these challenges, as well as building technical capacity at the central bank, and improving the regulatory and legal framework for the financial system, should be seen as both important reforms to strengthen the economy’s performance under dollarization as well as pre-requisites before consideration is given to the introduction of a national currency.
Keywords:
I. data description; copyright page; trade linkage; trading partners; headline inflation in Timor-Leste; oil price shock; Timor-Leste's adjustment; Timor-Leste's business cycle; Dollarization; Inflation; Real effective exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Honduras: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Purchases-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This page discusses Honduras’ First and Second Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Purchases. The Honduran economy remains resilient, despite external and climate shocks. The authorities have adopted measures to reduce electricity losses and domestic arrears of the state-owned electricity company. Strengthened budget execution, energy sector reforms, proactive implementation of monetary and exchange rate policies, and intensified efforts to tackle long-standing structural bottlenecks remain key to safeguard macroeconomic stability and to promote inclusive and sustained growth. The increasing frequency of climate change-related events calls for accelerating the implementation of climate adaptation policies. In order to support these efforts, the authorities have requested an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Close engagement with IMF staff on this area will continue.
Keywords:
November inflation data; Honduran authorities; Honduras team; November inflation print; bond issuance; Debt sustainability analysis; Credit; Global