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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 118 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Through end-June 2024, Grenada’s economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in budget balances, a build-up of government deposits, and a reduction in public debt. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl caused damage in excess of 16 percent of GDP on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as in the northern parishes of the main island, affecting around 15 percent of the population. In response, the authorities triggered the suspension of fiscal rules to permit temporary deficit spending in support of the recovery and reconstruction.
Keywords:
infrastructure investment facility; IIP source data; TA mission; CBI revenue; tourism infrastructure; CBI program; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Trinidad and Tobago is undergoing a gradual and sustained economic recovery. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have further expanded by 2.1 percent in 2023, reflecting a strong performance of the nonenergy sector. Economic growth is projected to gain momentum in 2024, supported by the nonenergy and energy sectors, and inflation is projected to remain low. The current account surplus will narrow mainly due to a decline in energy prices and energy exports and is estimated at 5.7 percent of GDP in 2024. International reserve coverage is expected to remain adequate at 7.5 months of prospective total imports. The report recommends sustaining structural reform momentum to secure a more diversified, green, resilient, and inclusive economy. It is important to foster private sector participation and promote economic diversification. Accelerating the country’s low-carbon transition agenda could help address issues raised by border carbon adjustments. Enhancing institutional capacity will improve the quality and timeliness of macroeconomic statistics.
Keywords:
government initiative; IMF-World Bank FSAP mission; Trinidad and Tobago authorities; stabilization fund; taxation regime; Energy sector; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation analyses that the Grenada’ tourism-dependent economy continued to recover from the pandemic amidst rising energy and food prices. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.4 percent in 2022, driven by a tourism rebound and construction activity. Inflation rose moderately to 2.9 percent by end-2022, as the authorities’ policy response dampened the pass through from rising global food and fuel prices. Public debt is now back on a downward trend. The financial sector is well capitalized and liquid although nonperforming loans (NPLs) of credit unions have risen. The government is committed to a return to the fiscal rules in 2023, after triggering the escape clause in 2020–22 to address the fallout of the pandemic. It planned to amend the Fiscal Responsibility Law this year to best support the country’s sustainable development. The government is seeking international support to facilitate the implementation of its Disaster Resilience Strategy and a transition toward renewable energy, critical for enhancing resilience to natural disasters and economic competitiveness.
Keywords:
Policy effort; CPI basket; IIP datum; Policy advice; calculation system; IMF's transparency policy; policy priority; Credit bureaus; External sector statistics; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Trinidad and Tobago’s economic activity is recovering supported by higher global energy prices and the rebound of the non-energy sector. Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 2.5 percent in 2022. Inflation has increased, reaching 8.7 percent by end-2022, driven by imported energy and food prices, partial liberalization of domestic fuel prices in 2022, and domestic weather-related shocks. The recovery is expected to gain broad-based momentum in 2023. Inflation is projected to slow down following international prices. The balance of risks to growth is tilted to the downside, stemming from potential disruptions to domestic oil and gas production, sharper than expected global slowdown and global financial instabilities. The upside is on higher-than-expected energy production and prices. It is advised to maintain sound and consistent policies to support the current exchange rate arrangement. The central bank should seriously consider increasing its repo policy rate to contain inflationary pressures and narrow the negative interest rate differential with the US monetary policy rate.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; FX intervention; retail price index; financial asset; Trinidad and Tobago's authorities; policy formulation; repo policy rate; side GDP estimate; Energy pricing; Fiscal stance; External sector statistics; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Core Business Functions Audit Capacity (RTAT)
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on St. Kitts and Nevis highlights strengthening core business functions audit capacity (RTAT). In response to a request from the St. Kitts and Nevis Inland Revenue Division (IRD), Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre provided capacity development (CD) in strengthening audit capacity under the RTAT training program. The main objective of this CD was to strengthen capacity to audit and verify accuracy of reporting by taxpayers in the Financial Sector. The CD started with the provision of five days of training of IRD auditors where the purpose was to prepare the authorities to implement the necessary actions in adopting good practice in auditing the Financial Sector. The IRD will build on this training and CD when designing future audit program. Given the importance of Financial Sector in St. Kitts and Nevis, further support to ensure compliance in the sector would be beneficial. The IRD will need further assistance to strengthen the audit program of the Financial Sector and support to review of tax returns of the companies in that sector. As a first step the audit team should, develop a program of profile meetings to gather relevant information on the operations of various businesses in the sector.
Keywords:
Strengthening audit capacity; core business functions audit capacity; IRD audit team; team Training Program; IRD auditor; World Bank staff; a number of audit case; Auditing; Financial sector; Training and development in revenue administration; Financial audit; Insurance companies; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects
Weicheng Lian
,
Jose Ramon Moran
, and
Raadhika Vishvesh
This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Keywords:
Natural disasters; scarring effects; synthetic control approach; IMF working papers; scarring effect; ante resilience; medium-term scarring; output effect; Tourism; Climate change; Caribbean; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Recent developments in the Western Hemisphere—that is, the United States/Canada and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—have been dominated by the impact of two distinct global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A third shock—the tightening of financial conditions—is now shaping the outlook. After contracting sharply in 2020, most of the Western Hemisphere’ economies recovered strongly in 2021 and early 2022, helped by the global recovery, the normalization of service sectors, and booming commodity prices. However, inflation pressures built up with pandemic-related disruptions, expansionary policies, rebounding demand, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and food prices. The swift response of LAC’s monetary authorities to rising inflation—well ahead of other economies—helped contain price pressures and keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, but inflation remains high. Amid global monetary and financial tightening, and the ensuing slowdown in global growth and softening of commodity prices, activity is expected to decelerate throughout the Western Hemisphere in late 2022 and 2023, while inflation pressures are expected to recede gradually. Downside risks dominate the outlook and stem from tighter financial conditions, a more pronounced global slowdown, and entrenched inflation. For LAC, a sharp fall in commodity prices and social unrest are important risks. With inflation yet to abate and most economies still operating at or near potential, monetary policy should avoid easing prematurely and must stay the course. Clear communication of policy intentions will be key to reducing uncertainty and keeping inflation expectations anchored. Fiscal support deployed to mitigate the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable should be accompanied by compensating measures, where fiscal space does not exist, but also support monetary authorities’ efforts to tame inflation. Given rising financing costs, strengthening fiscal frameworks and advancing with inclusive fiscal consolidation—that protects key social objectives—will be essential to credibly putting public debt on a firm downward path while ensuring social stability. Boosting LAC’s medium-term growth requires raising productivity and good-quality public and private investment. Supply-side policies should focus on strengthening human capital, simplifying and modernizing labor regulations, and lifting barriers to firm entry and exit.

Keywords:
country abbreviation; tourism dependent; inflation expectation; headline inflation; IMF staff calculation; inflation pressure; nominal GDP; Inflation; Commodity prices; Energy prices; Food prices; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Grenada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Grenada’s economy was hit hard by the pandemic, with a decline in real output of 14 percent in 2020 from both a collapse of tourism-related activities and the suspension of in-person classes at Saint George’s University (SGU). Growth in 2021 is estimated to have partly recovered to 5.6 percent, driven by construction and agriculture. The authorities’ policy response helped mitigate the pandemic’s impact through containment measures, increased health and social spending, and an expanded public investment program (including to build resilience to natural disasters). Central government debt rose to 70 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 59 percent in 2019) and the external position has worsened. The financial sector has so far weathered the crisis well.
Keywords:
Grenadian authorities; vaccination campaign; central government debt; IIP data; Policy discussion; Credit bureaus; COVID-19; External sector statistics; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Trinidad and Tobago faced unprecedented challenges in 2020–21. The combined effects of COVID-19 and energy production and price shocks pushed the economy further into recession. A decisive policy response helped contain the virus spread and protect lives and livelihoods. The fiscal position worsened due to significant tax revenues shortfalls, pushing public debt up. The vaccination pace accelerated recently, but vaccine hesitancy remains high, amid a potential new wave of infections.
Keywords:
Trinidad and Tobago authorities; government plan; gas taxation regime; Trinidad and Tobago economy; decisive emergency response; GDP contraction; COVID-19; Energy sector; External sector statistics; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Vibha Nanda
Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge for small economies with high debt and greater vulnerability to climate change. This paper applies the model-based sustainability test for fiscal policy in a panel of 16 Caribbean countries during the period 1980–2018. The results indicate that the coefficient on lagged government debt is positive and statistically significant, implying that fiscal policy in the Caribbean takes corrective actions to counteract an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Nonlinear estimations, however, show that the quadratic debt parameter is negative, which indicates that fiscal policy response is not adequate to ensure sustainability at higher levels of debt. We also find that the fiscal stance tends to be countercyclical on average during the sample period. These empirical results confirm that maintaining prudent fiscal policies and implementing growth-enhancing structural reforms are necessary to build fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability with high probability even when negative shocks occur over the long term.
Keywords:
WP; potential GDP; government; Debt sustainability; fiscal reaction function; fiscal policy; fiscal solvency; output gap variable; reaction to an increase; debt accumulation; prudent fiscal policies; fiscal policy reaction; interest rate; fiscal policy response; fiscal policy path; sustainability of fiscal policy; expenditure series; expenditure policy; output gap in the Caribbean; Fiscal stance; Fiscal sustainability; Output gap; Caribbean