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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU: WAEMU
Ljubica Dordevic
and
Olivia Y Ibrahim
Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
Keywords:
monetary union; fiscal policy; fiscal consolidation; fiscal rules; debt; stock flow adjustment; stock-flow adjustment; credibility in WAEMU; deficit ceiling; deficit target; deficit rule; Debt sustainability; Fiscal space; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the West African Economic and Monetary Union
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents 2024 discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The WAEMU has proved resilient amid significant adverse shocks, maintaining strong growth estimated at 5.1 percent in 2023. Inflation has fallen rapidly from its 2022 peaks and is now back within the 1–3 percent target range. Fiscal policy needs to ensure a credible medium-term commitment to debt sustainability, while keeping deficits consistent with available financing. The financial sector has been resilient so far, but the banking sector’s exposures to governments require a medium-term plan to address the sovereign-bank nexus, while avoiding disruptions in the regional debt market. WAEMU’s prosperity will also depend on maintaining political cohesion, deepening economic integration, and strengthening the institutional framework, and infrastructure. Regional growth prospects would be enhanced by continued efforts to increase common productive capacity in energy, infrastructure, and food resilience, as called for in the WAEMU Commission’s Regional Development Strategy.
Keywords:
WAEMU convergence pact; policy advice; WAEMU institution; WAEMU member country; WAEMU member; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Fiscal consolidation; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sénégal: Premiè Res Revues des Accords au Titre du Mécanisme Élargi de Crédit, de la Facilité Élargie de Crédit et de la Facilité pour la Résilience et la Durabilité ; Demandes de Modification de Critè Res de Réalisation Quantitatifs et de Réechelonnement de L'accès — Communiqué DE Presse, Rapport des Services du FMI et Déclaration de L'Administrateur pour le Sénégal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds. Despite the difficult socioeconomic environment, the authorities remain committed to the program objectives. Some of the downside risks identified at the time of the program request have materialized, leading to a downward revision of near-term growth. Inflation is projected to decline more gradually than anticipated. While near-term risks remain titled to the downside, with appropriate policies and the start of hydrocarbon production, medium-term prospects are favorable.
Keywords:
Senegalese authorities; RSF arrangement; government infrastructure loan; unfaltering commitment; RSF reform area; Policy discussion; Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Climate finance; Global; West Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: First Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility, the Extended Credit Facility, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangements, Requests for Modification of the Quantitative Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Senegal’s First Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility, The Extended Credit Facility, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangements, Requests for Modification of the Quantitative Performance Criteria Rephasing of Access. The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds as it recovers from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The Senegalese economy continues to face headwinds. Some of the downside risks identified at the time of the program request are materializing, leading to a downward revision of growth and higher inflation projected for 2023/24. Near-term risks remain titled to the downside, but medium-term prospects remain favorable with appropriate policies and the start of hydrocarbon production. Significant progress has been achieved in implementing structural reforms. The authorities are implementing the structural reforms agreed under the program, including steps to strengthen revenue administration and public financial management, enhance governance and improve the anti-corruption frameworks. Reforms agreed under the RSF are being implemented steadily.
Keywords:
Senegalese authorities; RSF arrangement; government infrastructure loan; unfaltering commitment; RSF reform area; Policy discussion; Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Climate finance; Global; West Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quantifying the Revenue Yields from Tax Administration Reforms
Hassan Adan
,
Jean-Marc B. Atsebi
,
Nikolay Gueorguiev
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
, and
Manabu Nose
Despite the criticality of tax administration (TA) reforms in enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, few studies have attempted to quantify the revenue impact of such reforms. This paper fills this gap by estimating the revenue yields associated with various tax administration capabilities, based on the International Survey on Tax Administration (ISORA), the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT), and TA reform episodes datasets (identified by Akitoby et al., 2020). It uses a Hausman-Taylor cross-country panel regression and an event study for specific TA reform episodes. Our results (using the ISORA data) show that an increase in the overall strength of TA from the 40th percentile to the 60th percentile is associated with an increase in tax revenue by 1.8 pp. of GDP (with a 95 percent confidence range of 0.5‒2.6 pp. of GDP). Similarly, the event-study assessment shows that sustained TA reforms led to an increase in tax revenues between 2 to 3 pp. of GDP, in line with the experience in three country cases (Jamaica, Rwanda, and Senegal). Also, the revenue yields are increasing over time to more than 3 pp. of GDP after the 6th year following a comprehensive reform. The analysis also highlights the significant impact of specific measures including: i) strengthening compliance risks management, ii) enhancing public accountability, iii) establishing Large Taxpayer Offices (LTO), iv) strengthening accountability and transparency, and v) enhancing timely filing of tax declarations.
Keywords:
Tax Revenues Yields; Tax Administration; ISORA; TADAT; TA reform; TA reform episodes dataset; revenue yield; TA strength; IMF FAD Tax Administration; Tax administration core functions; International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA); Tax Administration Diagnostic and Assessment Tool (TADAT); Social security contributions; Global; Middle East; East Asia; North Africa; Central Asia
Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating Fiscal Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilient Strategies and Credible Anchors in Turbulent Waters
Mr. Fabio Comelli
,
Peter Kovacs
,
Jimena Jesus Montoya Villavicencio
,
Arthur Sode
,
Mr. Antonio David
, and
Mr. Luc Eyraud
Sub-Saharan African countries have been hit, in recent years, by a cascading series of shocks that have exacerbated fiscal vulnerabilities. Significant reforms are needed to rebuild buffers and preserve the sustainability of public finances. The paper argues that a strategic approach to fiscal policy is needed, as policies in the region typically lack an effective anchor and are excessively focused on short-term goals. An explicit debt target is a crucial element of the fiscal strategy. But calibrating this anchor is a difficult exercise. This paper contributes to the debate by proposing a novel method tailored to the low-income country context, which relies on the principle of the preservation of debt-servicing capacity. Results using this method point to a median debt anchor of 55 percent of GDP in the region. Moreover, the paper also shows that most (though not all) countries will need to consolidate over the medium term to achieve prudent debt targets. Adjustment needs are in the order of 2 to 3 percent of GDP over the next five years for the median country. This consolidation seems feasible given historical experience and domestic revenue mobilization should play a central role in the adjustment process. Nevertheless, there is significant heterogeneity across countries: about a quarter of sub-Saharan African economies still have some fiscal space and can use it to continue making vital investments in human and physical capital. Finally, the paper discusses critical institutional reforms that are tailored to developing countries’ needs and constraints, including in the areas of medium-term budgeting, fiscal risk management, expenditure controls and revenue administration.
Keywords:
Fiscal Strategy; Fiscal Anchors; Political Economy; Africa; Covid-19; fiscal policy-Sub-Saharan Africa; fundamentals in Sub-Saharan Africa; debt Tolerance fundamentals; risk status; factors impacting debt Tolerance; government debt burden in Sub-Saharan Africa; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Requests for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Senegal’s Requests for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The Senegalese economy has been severely impacted by different shocks including the rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, weaker external demand, and the US dollar appreciation. The EFF/ECF-supported program will help meet Senegal’s protracted balance of payment needs and address macroeconomic imbalances. Policy priorities under the EFF/ECF program include reducing debt vulnerabilities by embarking on a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, strengthening governance, and delivering a more inclusive and job-rich growth. The RSF aims to tackle longer-term structural challenges related to climate change and the implementation of climate policies. The RSF will support Senegal's climate change mitigation objectives, accelerate the country’s climate change adaptation, and support work to mainstream climate change considerations into the budget process.
Keywords:
authorities' fiscal policy goal; Senegalese authorities; policy reform; EFF request; RSF arrangement; ECF-supported program; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Requests for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Senegal’s Requests for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The Senegalese economy has been severely impacted by different shocks including the rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, weaker external demand, and the US dollar appreciation. The EFF/ECF-supported program will help meet Senegal’s protracted balance of payment needs and address macroeconomic imbalances. Policy priorities under the EFF/ECF program include reducing debt vulnerabilities by embarking on a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, strengthening governance, and delivering a more inclusive and job-rich growth. The RSF aims to tackle longer-term structural challenges related to climate change and the implementation of climate policies. The RSF will support Senegal's climate change mitigation objectives, accelerate the country’s climate change adaptation, and support work to mainstream climate change considerations into the budget process.
Keywords:
authorities' fiscal policy goal; Senegalese authorities; policy reform; EFF request; RSF arrangement; ECF-supported program; Climate change; Budget planning and preparation; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing Terrorism (AML-CFT) Supervision of the Banking Sector
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This technical note discusses anti-money laundering and combating the financing terrorism (AML-CFT) supervision of the banking sector in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The decision to focus on the AML/CFT supervision of the WAEMU banking sector was based on the remit of the regional authorities; the importance to the regional economy of a well-integrated and well-functioning banking sector; and the results of money laundering and terrorist financing national risk assessments conducted to date in West Africa, which identify banks as relatively high-risk financial institutions. The AML/CFT off-site supervision program feeds into the risk-rating process but is not itself risk-based and communication with supervised entities is insufficient. Feedback to banks as part of off-site supervision should be enhanced, the on-site inspection methodology should be sharpened, and the risk-based approach should be fully implemented. The observations and recommendations in this report are based on discussions with regional and national authorities and the private sector as well as a review of relevant templates.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; IMF finance competitiveness; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; TF risk; World Bank staff; FSAP's finding; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Commercial banks; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Internal controls; Bank supervision; West Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Revamping the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Fiscal Framework
Can Sever
and
Athene Laws
This paper aims to provide a broad perspective on the WAEMU fiscal framework. Based on backward looking exercises and forward looking scenarios, it shows that (i) repeated fiscal slippages and historically large stock flow adjustments contributed to the surge in the WAEMU public debt, and (ii) stock flow adjustments can have significant effects on the WAEMU debt dynamics going forward. This paper also discusses that it is essential and urgent to reintroduce the fiscal rules and the Convergence Pact and to enhance the rules. Revamping the fiscal rules should focus on introducing a correction mechanism (which could contain surges in debt in the future) and an escape clause (which would enhance fiscal discipline and predictability), as well as capturing the extensive extra-budgetary and below-the-line operations and strengthening the enforcement mechanism. Any consideration to changing the fiscal deficit target should also encompass addressing extra-budgetary and below-the-line transactions (for example by changing the definition of the deficit). It is not appropriate to increase the debt ceiling.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; fiscal rules; fiscal governance; PFM; fiscal coordination; monetary unions; WAEMU; stock flow adjustments; flow adjustment; debt dynamics scenario; deficit target; scenario assumption; deficit measure; deficit combination; so called SFA; Government debt management; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt limits; Global