Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 165 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Aligning the Stabilizing Expenditure Rule to the European Union Fiscal Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Expenditure rule; Fiscal rule; Correction mechanism; EU economic governance; fiscal framework; Debt; Expenditure baseline; Republic of Poland.; SER limit; net expenditure path; EU net expenditure indicator; expenditure path; Fiscal rules; EU governance framework; Fiscal governance; Fiscal councils; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Technical Assistance; Training; Institution; Priorities; Evaluation; Impact; Field Presence; Regional Capacity Development Training Center; CD Strategy Review; CD department; CD provider; delivery modality; CD staffing model; RCDC CD Delivery; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Comparative advantage; Training and development in revenue administration; Global; South America; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovak Republic: Technical Assistance Report-Implementing Public Expenditure Limits
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report on Slovak Republic discusses implementing public expenditure limits (PEL). The main objective behind the introduction of the PEL is to create an operational instrument to strengthen fiscal discipline and fiscal sustainability. The introduction of the PEL provides an opportunity to move beyond the annual budget and take strategic budgeting a step further into the medium term. To strengthen the budget process, the report proposes a strategic phase to the budget process, currently lacking, which could start with a Fiscal Strategy Report outlining fiscal challenges and policy options for consideration by the Council of Ministers. Based on the recommendations in this report, the current caretaker government has a unique opportunity to propose an agenda of public financial management reforms to the new government that will emerge from the elections in September. These recommendations rely heavily on the experience of countries that have to some extent successfully implemented PEL and progressively moved toward medium-term budgeting. Further detailed work will be needed in many of the above areas to flesh out the precise laws, decrees, regulations, or processes that will need to be changed to kick start the reforms.
Keywords:
State secretary; PEL methodology; budget chapter; state budget; authorities of the Slovak Republic; Value-for-Money Unit; Budget planning and preparation; Budget execution and treasury management; Fiscal space
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries
Miyoko Asai
,
Qiaoe Chen
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
,
Xingwei Hu
, and
Qianqian Zhang
This paper examines the role of structural fiscal policies to promote female labor force participation and reduce gender gaps in labor markets in 26 OECD countries from 2000 to 2019. As both female labor force participation and many explanatory/control variables clearly exhibit non-stationarity (potentially leading to spurious regression results), we employ a panel vector error-correction model, in contrast with most previous empirical studies on this matter. Our analyses confirm statistically significant positive impacts of government spending on (1) early childcare and education, (2) active labor market programs, and (3) unemployment benefits, all of which would help encourage women to enter the labor force, while (4) an increase in relative tax rate on second earner could have negative impact on female labor force participation.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Gender; Labor Force; OECD; panel unit root; panel vector error-correction model; robustness test; panel VECM result; female LFPR; age group; regression analysis; positive correlation; standard deviation; Women; Active labor market policies; Gender diversity; Unemployment benefits; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a regional report on Nordic-Baltic technical assistance project: financial flows analysis, Anti-Money Laundering and combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Supervision, and Financial Stability. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border ML threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region—encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC)—and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks. The financial flows analysis presented in this report is based on the IMF staff’s analysis of cross-border payments data. Six out of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries have seen an increase in aggregate flows since 2013. Monitoring cross-border financial flows provides countries with a deeper understanding of their external ML threat environment and evolving cross-border related risks they are facing. Leveraging broader analysis of ML/TF cross-border risk, the Nordic-Baltic countries should develop their own understanding of higher-risk countries reflecting country-specific ML/TF threats.
Keywords:
TF risk assessment; colleges participation; TF risk; EU Anti-Money Laundering Authority; supervisory cooperation; information Sharin; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Virtual currencies; Correspondent banking; Internal controls; Financial sector stability; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Euihyun Bae
This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder.
Keywords:
attempts to proxy; fraction of country; copyright page; update of the Reported Social Unrest Index; IMF surveillance; Pension spending; Machine learning; Pension reform; Stock markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Benchmarking Infrastructure Using Public Investment Efficiency Frontiers
Mr. Javier Kapsoli
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
, and
Ms. Genevieve Verdier
With limited financing options, increasing investment efficiency will be a critical avenue to building infrastructure for many countries, particularly in the context of post-pandemic recovery and rising debt emanating from higher energy costs and other pressures. Estimating investment efficiency, however, presents many methodological pitfalls. Using various methods—–stochastic frontier analysis, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and bootstrapped DEA—this paper estimates efficiency scores for a wide range of countries employing metrics of infrastructure quantity and utilization. We find that efficiency scores are relatively robust across methodologies and data used. A considerable efficiency gap exists: Removing all inefficiencies could increase infrastructure output by 55 percent overall, when averaging across 12 estimation approaches—in particular, by 45 percent for advanced economies, 54 percent for emerging countries, and 65 percent for low income countries. Infrastructure output would increase by a still-sizeable 30 percent if instead of eliminating all efficiency, countries achieved the efficiency level of their income group’s 90th percentile.
Keywords:
public investment; efficiency; infrastructure; benchmarking; Benchmarking infrastructure; infrastructure output; output index; data envelopment analysis; income group; Public investment spending; Income; Stocks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Financial Sector Assessment Program–Technical Note on Oversight and Supervision of Financial Market Infrastructures and Selected Issues in Payment Systems
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note discusses Sweden’s Oversight and Supervision of Financial Market Infrastructures and Selected Issues in Payment Systems. Digitalization of payments has been rising steadily in Sweden. In addition to the continuous digitalization of payments, Sweden is undergoing a major overhaul of its payment infrastructure. Outsourcing of critical services to private companies is widespread and is going to increase in the Swedish financial sector. The review results of responsibilities suggest an effective supervision and oversight framework supported by sound legal basis, sufficient resources, and proper domestic and foreign cooperation between the authorities. The authorities should establish cooperative oversight and supervisory arrangements with P27 participating countries. While joining the Eurosystem operated platforms will bring obvious benefits for Swedish financial sector, it may also create challenges related to governance, risk management, representation of Swedish interests and oversight. The authorities are encouraged to establish and maintain a central register of critical service providers and outsourced third party arrangements.
Keywords:
Riksbank's oversight function; oversight responsibility; oversight arrangement; oversight activity; oversight framework; supervision of financial market infrastructure; oversight power; PFM information systems; Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures; Payment systems; Operational risk; Financial market infrastructure; Europe