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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chad: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses Chad’s post-pandemic recovery picked up steam in 2023 with growth increasing to 4.9 percent. Economic growth is projected to decline to 3.1 percent in 2024 on account of the impact of the recent floods and a slight decline in oil production but would rebound in the medium term owing to sustained public investment and structural reforms. Risks to the outlook are substantial and tilted to the downside and include potential delays in implementing fiscal consolidation measures, a larger-than-expected decline in oil prices, an increase in the influx of Sudanese refugees, and a further increase in the frequency and severity of climate change-related events. Restructuring plans aimed at improving the operational and financial performance of the two systemic public banks while providing for their recapitalization need to be adopted and implemented expeditiously. Strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, together with measures to improve education, increase access to basic infrastructure, and promote formalization and financial inclusion, will be essential to create a favorable business environment.
Keywords:
Chadian authorities; health emergency preparedness; follow-up AFC support initiative; policy coordination; cash management coordination; Gender inequality; Oil prices; Women; Global; Africa; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of South Sudan
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on South Sudan’s Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement. Severe spillovers from the conflict in Sudan, including refugee inflows and damages to an oil pipeline, have exacerbated South Sudan’s difficult humanitarian and macroeconomic situation, resulting in an economic slowdown, sharp exchange rate depreciation, high inflation, and higher spending needs against the backdrop of large fiscal revenue losses. Discussions with the South Sudanese authorities during the Third Review of the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement (PMB) focused on re-calibrating macroeconomic policy to address the impact of the external shocks. The authorities remain committed to implementing strong policies and reform measures to restore macroeconomic stability. IMF Management completed the Third review of the PMB with South Sudan. The implementation of commitments taken by the authorities under the Letter of Intent will continue to support macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. The authorities remain committed to fiscal and monetary prudence and to implementing their medium-term reform agenda.
Keywords:
authorities' priority; government operation; VAT regime; authorities view; reform agenda; Oil production; Quasi-fiscal operations; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: 2023 Article IV Consultation, and First and Second Reviews under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of South Sudan
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Republic of South Sudan’s 2023 Article IV Consultation, and First and Second Reviews under the Staff-Monitored Program with Board Involvement (PMB). South Sudan is significantly impacted by the war in Sudan, especially from a very large and growing number of refugees, and by a sharp decline in oil production and exports since mid-February 2024 due to damages to the oil pipeline. Article IV discussions focused on putting economic reforms on a sustainable footing, boosting domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing social spending, and implementing governance and transparency reforms to reduce corruption. The extension of the PMB provides time to the authorities to implement corrective actions to bring macroeconomic policies back on track and implement governance reforms; building a strong track record is essential for any financial arrangement with the IMF. In order to help address these challenges, as well as the fallout from the damage to the oil pipeline, the authorities have requested a 3-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Successful completion of the current PMB would help establish track record toward a potential ECF arrangement in the future.
Keywords:
BSS staff; auction rate; authorities endeavor; government program; FX auction; Debt sustainability analysis; Oil; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
Keywords:
FX reserves-financed government import; core inflation; steadfast adherence; excise duty regime; monetary policy implementation; Credit; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program, Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility, and Program Monitoring with Board Involvement-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Republic of South Sudan’s Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program, Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility, and Program Monitoring with Board involvement. About two-thirds of South Sudan’s population is experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level since independence. Significant reforms have been introduced since the start of the SMP in March 2021, including the unification of the official and parallel exchange rates and increased transparency of oil revenue and government operations. The authorities plan to channel part of the food stock window disbursement via the World Food Programme and International Organization of Migration making use of their systems to provide immediate humanitarian assistance to address food insecurity. In order to help guide their reform agenda aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability and improving governance and transparency, the authorities have also requested completion of the existing SMP and a new nine-month Staff Program Monitoring with Board Involvement to lay the ground for an eventual Extended Credit Facility.
Keywords:
government operation; South Sudanese authorities; FSW disbursement; IMF team; authorities' effort; reform gain; customs administration reform; Oil; Government debt management; Debt sustainability analysis; Monetary base; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Libya: Technical Assistance Report-Review the Installation/Implementation Status of Modules/Functionalities of ASYCUDA World at Libyan Customs Administration
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Middle East Technical Assistance Center (METAC) has arranged a two-phase capacity development (CD) for the Libyan Customs Administration (LCA) of the Libyan Ministry of Finance. The purpose of this mission is to assess the development status of the ASYCUDA World (AW) prototype piloted in the Port of Tripoli and identify areas of short-term CD support enabling LCA to fully exploit the AW functionalities. It will be followed by a study tour to promote peer learning and exchange of best practices in the f ield of customs in particular digitalization issues, through the METAC region.
Keywords:
AW functionality; AW prototype; AW implementation team; implementation status; LCA authorities; Customs administration core functions; Tariffs; Duties; Imports; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: 2022 Article IV Consultation And Second Review Under The Staff-Monitored Program
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict state and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate-driven disasters. The pandemic reversed the economic recovery that followed the 2018 peace agreement. The oil price shock from the pandemic resulted in a massive loss of revenue, causing the government to run up expenditure arrears and resume monetary financing. This led to sharp exchange rate depreciation and runaway inflation. The policies implemented under a Staff Monitored Program (SMP) that was approved in March 2021 and supported by two disbursements under the RCF (in November 2020 and March 2021) have helped restore macroeconomic stability and eliminate a long-standing system of multiple exchange rates. Higher oil prices have dampened the effects of floods on lower oil production and sustained international reserves in the face of a rising import bill. The sharp rise in global food prices risks is exacerbating the dire humanitarian situation in South Sudan, where 70 percent of the population suffers from acute food insecurity, at a time when aid budgets are being cut.
Keywords:
government obligation; auction rate; debt stock; government website; AFRITAC East; FX auction; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Debt sustainability analysis; Food prices; Oil; Global; East Africa; Africa; Southern Africa
Cover Policy Papers
The IMF Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a comprehensive Strategy to strengthen IMF support to FCS in accordance with the Fund’s mandate and comparative advantage. The Strategy is a response to the Board-endorsed recommendations of the 2018 Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Report on The IMF and Fragile States. To achieve these goals, the Strategy will benefit from additional resources reflected in the FY23-25 Medium-Term Budget, as per the budget augmentation framework discussed by the Board in December 2021. The Strategy also provides measures to better support staff working on FCS. Given the inherent risks in FCS engagement, the Strategy will be phased in starting in FY22, with implementation gradually accelerating between FY23-FY25.
Keywords:
FCS strategy; IMF FCS list; IMF engagement; field presence; IMF field presence; staffing change; IMF core activity; engagement model; Climate change; Inclusive growth; Absorptive capacity; Macro-fiscal framework; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Build Cash Management Capacity in Fragile States and Low-Income Developing Countries
Sailendra Pattanayak
,
Racheeda Boukezia
,
Yasemin Hurcan
, and
Ramon Hurtado
Fiscal institutional capacity in most fragile states (FS) and several low-income developing countries (LIDCs) is much lower than in other countries. Governments in these countries face several cash management challenges because they often lack credible budgets, have smaller and less diversified revenue bases, have limited access to financial markets, and rely largely on donors to fund a large portion of their budgets. Available public funds in these countries often remain dispersed outside the control of the ministry of finance. In the absence of a good cash forecasting function, these countries typically resort to cash rationing to meet their priority spending needs, often in an ad hoc manner, which can adversely affect budget execution and achievement of fiscal policy targets. This note sets out the key objectives and building blocks of a cash management function in FS and LIDCs. It suggests several measures to progressively build cash management capacity in three interrelated areas: consolidating cash resources, forecasting cash flows, and managing cash balances with sound institutional setups.
Keywords:
cash management decision flow chart; factors inhibiting TSA reform; cash management function; Treasury committee; cash inflow; Government cash management; Government cash forecasting; Currencies; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Treasury Single Account; West Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Keywords:
risk management framework; transparency policy; D. financial risks; income volatility; totaling SDR; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Pension spending; COVID-19; Global