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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 126 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Serbia, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Serbia’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Under the SBA, Serbia pursued ambitious reforms, helping achieve strong macroeconomic outcomes and a first ever investment grade rating in October 2024. By building on these accomplishments, the PCI will support the authorities in their efforts to demonstrate continued commitment to sound policies, sustain reform momentum, and anchor fiscal discipline. Under the PCI, public debt is slated to decline to 45 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and lower thereafter, balancing continued fiscal prudence with spending needs, including for public investment. Further progress with fiscal-structural and state-owned enterprise reforms will be crucial complements to fiscal discipline. A restrictive monetary policy stance will help guard against upside inflation risks. The stabilized exchange rate has served Serbia well, but greater flexibility could be considered over time.
Keywords:
tolerance band; SBA review; investment sentiment; energy investment needs; NBS decision; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Serbia’s Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. With the impact of the energy crisis fading, growth is expected to increase to close to 4 percent in 2024 alongside a robust labor market, real wage increases and higher investment. Macroeconomic outturns under the program remain strong. Growth is increasing, inflation is falling, the current account deficit has narrowed, reserves are at record highs, and public debt is declining. The authorities are firmly committed to their 2024 fiscal plans, which are aligned with the SBA’s fiscal targets, but higher public investment means that deficits over 2025–27 are set to be higher than previously envisaged. Stepped-up public investment will be accompanied by additional transparency and public investment management reforms. The financial situation of the energy sector state-owned enterprises (SOE) has been stabilized. Structural reforms in the energy sector companies, SOE governance, and broader fiscal management are progressing well.
Keywords:
NBS inflation corridor; management reform; headline inflation; inflation tolerance band; inflation consultation band; Loans; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and Request for Modification of Reform Measure-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents Republic of Kosovo’s Second Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) and Request for Modification of Reform Measure. Kosovo’s economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite a challenging external environment, and inflation has declined markedly. The Kosovo authorities continue to advance their economic program and structural reform and climate agenda, supported by the SBA and the Arrangement under the RSF. Program performance under both arrangements remains strong. The authorities are advancing an ambitious green agenda. The RSF has supported efforts to strengthen the regulatory framework and increase policy space to attract private investment into green energy. The successful completion of a pilot competitive auction for solar electricity generation and a first auction for wind electricity generation are important steps in the authorities’ plan to expand renewable energy capacity. Reducing emissions and improving air quality, increasing energy efficiency, improving targeting of energy subsidies, and enhancing energy security are important goals of Kosovo’s green agenda.
Keywords:
RSF ARRANGEMENT; government liquidity buffer; CBK balance sheet; Kosovo authorities; budget revenue; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report for Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Serbia’s Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Despite a challenging global environment, growth is recovering, and the labor market is resilient. The current account deficit has narrowed significantly, foreign direct investment remains robust, and foreign exchange reserves are at record highs. Risks have fallen since the start of the program. Macroeconomic outturns under the program remain strong, with recovering growth, ongoing disinflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and record high foreign exchange reserves. The 2024 budget is appropriately tight while providing room for needed public investment. The financial situation of the energy sector state-owned enterprises (SOE) has been stabilized, and structural reforms in the energy sector companies, SOE governance and broader fiscal management are progressing well. Program performance remains strong, reflecting the authorities’ program ownership. All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets were met, as were the end-October 2023 structural benchmarks (SB) on energy tariff increases, and a prior action on approving the 2024 budget. The SB on medium-term budgeting was completed with a short delay.
Keywords:
policy continuity; Policy discussion; C. energy sector policy; IMF's transparency policy; A. monetary policy; SOE governance reform; policy stance; Inflation; Loans; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: 2023 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Serbia has made impressive economic gains over much of the past decade: living standards improved, inflation fell, public finances were strengthened, and reserves increased, helped by ample foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. But spillovers from the war in Ukraine—especially the sharp increase in international energy prices—and deep-rooted problems in Serbia’s energy sector that came to a head last year, led to large external and fiscal financing needs, prompting the authorities to request a IMF-supported Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Tighter monetary policy is needed to reduce inflation. The National Bank of Serbia should ensure that real ex-ante policy rates become positive and that such rates stay positive until the path of inflation is clearly converging to target. Fiscal policy should work alongside monetary policy as fiscal consolidation helps disinflation and lowers public debt. In addition, any fiscal over-performance should be saved or used for priority investments.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; rate hike; food price inflation; precautionary Stand-By Arrangement; budget financing; inflation dynamics; SBA approval; A. monetary policy; Inflation; Energy sector; Government finance statistics; Loans; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
William Lindquist
,
Yen N Mooi
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Hoda Selim
, and
Armine Khachatryan
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
Keywords:
Infrastructure; Public-private partnerships; Western Balkans; governance framework; PPP procurement; PPP life cycle; future of PPP; PPP project; Fiscal risks; Public investment spending; PPP legislation; Risks of public-private partnership; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Second Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Serbia’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of Targets. Serbia’s economic growth rebounded strongly at 7.4 percent in 2021. The war in Ukraine, energy sector challenges and high inflation are expected to lower growth in 2022 to 3.5 percent amid high uncertainty. Near-term risks are mostly to the downside and include more prolonged or severe spillovers from the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, energy supply disruptions, more severe trade disruptions, and lower global demand. Serbia’s medium-term outlook, while uncertain, remains favorable, supported by the authorities’ commitment to structural reforms. Macro-financial stability has been maintained notwithstanding the various shocks. All but one end-December 2021 quantitative targets (QTs) were met. The ceiling on current primary expenditure was missed when additional fiscal spending was needed to ensure energy security. While the March 2022 inflation level triggered the consultation clause under the program, monetary policy has been tightened appropriately since October 2021. The IMF recommends completion of the second review under the PCI.
Keywords:
policy priority; inflation expectation; tariff strategy; core inflation; state aid; Policy recommendation; dampening inflation expectation; Policy discussion; Inflation; Energy prices; Loans; Imports; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Pensions; Fiscal Sustainability; Defined Benefit; Defined Contribution; pension policy; policy engagement; Policy advice; General consideration; pension provision; C. IMF-supported program; Pension spending; Pension reform; Aging; Europe; Africa; Global; Southeast Asia; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Albania: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Policy Reform Options for the MTRS
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Albania is preparing a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) to finance its development spending of an estimated 2.2–3.0 percent of GDP over five years. Revenue mobilization will be supported by comprehensive tax policy and administration reforms. International and regional comparisons suggest that there is room for additional revenues as well as improvement in the composition of tax revenues. This report presents options for tax policy reform to raise at least an additional 1.34 percent of GDP in revenues over five years and to improve the quality and efficiency of the tax system, that will enable the mobilization of further domestic revenues.
Keywords:
IMF resident representative office; Reform proposal; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; c-efficiency ratio; VAT revenue; value-added tax; Value-added tax; Personal income tax; Corporate income tax; Social security contributions; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Request for a 30-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Recent economic developments. Supported by a large policy package, Serbia’s economy rebounded quickly from the initial COVID-19 shock, recording a 1 percent contraction of real GDP in 2020. Job losses have mostly been contained to the informal sector, thanks to policy measures aimed at preserving formal employment. A supplementary budget for 2021 was adopted in April boosting capital expenditure and extending policy support to households and corporates, against the background of third and fourth waves of infections and related containment measures, as well as a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in key trading partners. Inflation remains low. After rising again in late February, infections tapered, helped by new containment measures and the rapid vaccine rollout.
Keywords:
reform momentum; support package; GDP data; pension indexation rule; inflation expectation; public debt level; policy buffer; SOE reform; production method; COVID-19; Government finance statistics; Loans; Exchange rates; Europe; Global