Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 94 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Political Economy of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Removal: Evidence from Bolivia and Mexico
Mariza Montes de Oca Leon
,
Achim Hagen
, and
Franziska Holz
We study the impact of fossil fuel subsidy removal on presidential popularity using difference-indifference approaches and a stylized theoretical model. Analyzing macro level data for two subsidy removal events in Mexico and Bolivia in the early 2010s, we find evidence of a negative impact on presidential approval. Our theoretical probabilistic voting model predicts that the decline in popularity is driven by high income groups if subsidies are regressive, and that lack of trust in the government lowers popularity of the removal in all income groups. We confirm these predictions using micro level data for the Mexican subsidy removal event.
Keywords:
Political economy; Fossil fuels; Subsidy removal; removal event; on approval rating; outcome variable; outcome predictor; Energy subsidies; Income; Fuel prices; Non-renewable resources; Gasoline; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Botswana’s economic growth is expected to slow to 1 percent in 2024 primarily because of a diamond market contraction, before picking up next year. Inflation has declined sharply since the peak of mid-2022 and returned to the central bank’s medium-term objective range of 3–6 percent, where it is expected to remain in the medium term. Some fiscal relaxation is warranted this year given the fall in mineral revenues, but the ambitious capital budget should be streamlined to contain the deterioration of the deficit and prioritize projects with the highest value for money. The monetary policy stance is appropriate, but monetary policy transmission remains limited, requiring further deepening of the interbank, credit, and government bond markets along the transmission chain. Reducing inequality and unemployment requires a more job-intensive, private sector-led, and export-oriented growth model. Reform of state-owned enterprises, improved infrastructure for doing business (internet, energy, and logistics), trade facilitation measures, and a more efficient social protection system should be prioritized.
Keywords:
IMF's article; OPEC Fund for International Development; project obligations to fund; objective range; diamond market contraction; IMF team; Non-renewable resources; Financial sector stability; Global; Southern Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2024 First Post-Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Post Financing Assessment (PFA) Consultation with Angola. Angola’s capacity to repay the IMF is adequate though subject to risks. Angola remained resilient in the face of significant challenges in 2023, including weaker oil production and prices. Spending adjustments helped contain the impact of weaker oil prices and lower production in 2023, though the gains from fiscal consolidation were lower-than-anticipated. The nonoil primary fiscal deficit (NOPFD), estimated at 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, is expected to steadily decline in the medium term on modestly improving non-oil revenues, moderately lower current and capital expenditures, and savings from fuel subsidy reform. Continued efforts on enhancing the monetary policy framework are needed to reduce inflation and support non-oil medium-term growth. Implementing broad ranging structural reforms is vital to improve business environment and maintain growth in the context of a long-term decline of the oil sector. Addressing issues related to governance, gender, and climate change remains critical to achieving economic diversification and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
anchor inflation expectation; private sector borrowing costs; oil price shock; Angola economy; inflation reduction; oil dependence; Oil prices; Oil production; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Mongolia—Assessment Letter for the Asian Development Bank
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This letter updates the assessment of Mongolia’s economic conditions since the conclusion of the IMF’s 2023 Article IV consultation on September 14, 2023. The assessment has been requested in relation to the program loan under the Asian Development Bank’s Policy Based Lending modality.
Keywords:
Inflation; External balances; Economic growth; Mineral exports; Fiscal policies; PBOC swap line; target band; stronger-than-expected commodity price; DBM's governance; headline inflation; IMF staff forecast; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Angola’s economic recovery in 2021/22 was nearly halted in 2023 by a double shock in the first half of the year, as the oil sector weakened, and the debt moratorium ended. Growth is estimated at 0.5 percent for 2023, with an estimated contraction in the oil sector of 6.1 percent and softened non-oil growth at 2.9 percent. Economic growth is projected to recover in the near-term, supported by improved oil production and the recovery in the non-oil sector. Inflation is expected to remain temporarily elevated in 2024 and to gradually decline thereafter, as the effects of the subsidy removal and the pass-through from nominal exchange rate depreciation diminish. The recent monetary policy tightening is welcomed, while further improvements to monetary operations are required, including aligning the interbank market interest rate with the announced policy rate. The central bank (BNA) and the ministry of finance should coordinate money market operations to align interbank liquidity conditions with the announced interest rate corridor while fiscal domestic financing is undertaken through medium- to long-term issuances. The BNA should also continue its transition toward an inflation-targeting framework and greater exchange rate flexibility.
Keywords:
asset declaration regime; policy priority; reducing government's footprint; inflation pressure; AFRITAC South; policy coherence; Energy subsidies; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Discussões sobre a primeira avaliação pós-financiamento-Comunicado de imprensa; Relatório da Equipa Técnica
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
No seguimento da estabilidade macroeconómica alcançada num contexto especialmente difícil em 2020, a recuperação que teve início em 2021 prosseguiu em 2022 favorecida pelos elevados preços do petróleo. O segundo mandato do Presidente João Lourenço, – iniciado no ano passado – centra-se na promoção da diversificação e do crescimento não petrolífero. Porém, Angola enfrenta desafios significativos em 2023, designadamente o agravamento das perspectivas para os preços do petróleo, a diminuição da produção petrolífera, um contexto externo altamente incerto e a necessidade de reverter a grande flexibilização orçamental do ano passado. Esta última será apoiada pela conclusão integral da reforma dos subsídios aos combustíveis, anunciada pelo governo em 1 de junho de 2023. A capacidade de reembolso de Angola ao FMI é adequada, embora sujeita a riscos elevados. No caso de se materializar um cenário adverso que envolva um choque prolongado dos preços do petróleo, os indicadores de reembolso deteriorar-se-ão, mas permanecerão adequados.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with Mongolia highlights that growth rebounded to 5.0 percent in 2022 and the external position stabilized as a result of China’s reopening, the government’s determined efforts to boost exports, and private sector financing inflows. The procyclical fiscal stimulus from the supplementary budget will lift near term growth and inflation but entails increased macroeconomic stability risks. The growth boost from the stimulus is expected to fade from 2024 onward as higher inflation and external pressures begin to weigh on the non-mining sector. Fiscal consolidation and adherence to fiscal rules are critical to ensure macroeconomic stability. Consolidation should entail measures to contain the wage bill, prioritize public investment, increase progressivity in personal income taxes, introduce means-tested social assistance targeting, and continued improvements in public investment management and tax and customs administration. External buffers should be strengthened to build resilience to external shocks. A comprehensive development agenda is needed to reduce medium-term vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; swap line; IMF expert; IMF TA; market segmentation; fund staff; Inflation; Non-renewable resources; Commercial banks; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: First Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights first post financing assessment discussions in Angola. Successful reforms coupled by firmed oil prices supported the Angola’s economic recovery in 2021–22; however, declined oil production has led to significant challenges to the economy. Towards the end of 2022 and the first half of 2023, the oil sector weakened due to the extension of temporary maintenance operations. With declines of both oil prices and production in the first half of 2023, exports and oil revenues declined, resulting in a weakness in the fiscal and external sectors, and a significant depreciation in the nominal exchange rate in June 2023. Continued efforts are needed to bolster financial stability. Ongoing prudential reforms should continue to improve banking sector oversight and health. Maintaining focus on medium-term structural reforms is critical to maintaining growth in the context of a declining oil production. Lessening the dependence on the oil sector is critical and should remain the authorities’ medium-term focus, to reduce vulnerabilities arising from the increased volatility of this sector.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update
Mr. Simon Black
,
Antung A. Liu
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Nate Vernon
This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect supply and environmental costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by charging below efficient fuel prices. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022 or 7.1 percent of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but are still only 18 percent of the total subsidy, while nearly 60 percent is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution. Differences between efficient prices and retail fuel prices are large and pervasive, for example, 80 percent of global coal consumption was priced at below half of its efficient level in 2022. Full fossil fuel price reform would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 43 percent below baseline levels in 2030 (in line with keeping global warming to 1.5-2oC), while raising revenues worth 3.6 percent of global GDP and preventing 1.6 million local air pollution deaths per year. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 170 countries.
Keywords:
Fossil fuel subsidies; efficient fuel prices; supply costs; climate change; local air pollution mortality; revenue gains; energy price surge; non-pricing reform; spreadsheet tools; IMF fossil fuel subsidies datum; price reform; air emission fee; supply cost; Fuel prices; Non-renewable resources; Energy subsidies; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; North America; East Asia; Caribbean; South Asia
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2022: The Scramble for Energy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, December 2022
Keywords:
energy transition; West Indies cricket team; fossil fuel use; energy consumption; West Indies cricket journey; Renewable energy; Fuel prices; Non-renewable resources; Energy prices; Electricity; Europe; Global; Caribbean; Africa; Baltics