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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance mission assessed Kiribati’s agricultural output price scheme that subsidizes the production of copra (dried coconut). The mission estimates that subsidies in 2023 amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP. The scheme’s technical and allocative inefficiencies, incidence in rural areas, and high fiscal cost, could be mitigated in the short- and medium term, by scaling back the subsidies, replacing them in part with cash transfers and public goods provision in the outer islands, securing fiscal savings in the process, and introducing competitive elements in the copra value chain.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights climate change impacts in Eswatini. Eswatini is highly susceptible to climate shocks and is impacted by frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, variability in temperature, and water scarcity. Climate change is affecting Eswatini in several ways. With over 70 percent of the population dependent on agriculture, the increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena necessitates adaptation to create a climate-smart agricultural sector with a long-run objective of ensuring food security and generating exportable surpluses. Focusing on sustainable energy is also pertinent to reduce reliance on carbon-intensive energy production that exacerbates climate stress. Eswatini should be seeking access to green financing and insurance mechanisms to protect against the financial impacts of climate change. Insurance plays a crucial role in providing a safety net against the unpredictable impacts of disasters. By spreading the financial risk associated with natural disasters, insurance helps to stabilize economies and support recovery efforts.
David Amaglobeli
,
Todd Benson
, and
Tewodaj Mogues
The objectives underlying agricultural output subsidies can have conflicting implications for the design of subsidy programs. As they tend to affect meaningful swaths of the electorate, subsidies can also be an attractive political instrument. By artificially lowering production costs or assuring higher output prices, direct support measures can result in resource misallocation in instances where they fail to address market failures, such as imperfect information about the returns to fertilizers. Subsidies can also contribute to fertilizer overuse, harming the environment and the agricultural sector in the long term. Furthermore, agricultural production subsidies are often fiscally costly and unfavorable compared to alternative uses of public funds—both within the agricultural sector and outside it—to achieve the same ends. Various design and implementation challenges amplify the shortcomings of producer subsidy programs.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on a case study on copra subsidy in Kiribati. The copra subsidy, disbursed as a minimum support price, is a major part of the social safety net in Kiribati. The subsidy has multiple purposes—including as a means to transfer resources to the outer islands and to stem migration to the capital. The horizontal diversification model shows that a higher subsidy on copra diverts production and labor towards copra but lowers overall income. The vertical diversification model demonstrates how a subsidy on a primary product increases its supply but reduces production of the final good. Considering the benefits, the government could boost the subsidy’s efficiency, replace the scheme with a poverty-targeted social assistance program, or impose a cap on payments. Development partners, including the IMF and the World Bank, stand ready to provide support in both areas as needed.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Morocco’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Review under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement, First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The discussions focused on the policies needed to secure the recent decline of inflation and advance with fiscal consolidation while financing the structural reforms needed to ensure that economic growth creates more jobs and becomes more inclusive. The Moroccan economy continued to show resilience to negative shocks. Inflation fell over the course of 2023, mainly as the impact of supply shocks faded. The current account deficit narrowed significantly. The central government fiscal deficit improved more than envisaged in the 2023 Budget. The 2023 overall deficit closed at 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), about 0.5 percent of GDP less than projected in the 2023 Budget. The implementation of the announced structural reform agenda has continued.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation in Colombia. Colombia, as many other emerging market economies, has been particularly susceptible to shocks that pushed inflation above central bank targets and lowered growth. Following a series of supply-side shocks, unprecedented policy stimulus, and a sharp recovery in economic activity after the pandemic, inflation rose above central bank targets in many economies around the globe, including Colombia. Amid a more challenging external backdrop and increasing monetary policy trade-offs, this note explores the role that fiscal policy can play to support monetary policy in addressing inflationary pressures without unduly dampening growth. Lower (larger) fiscal adjustment, in the form of expenditure cuts, is indeed associated with lower (larger) overall demand adjustment and more (less) aggressive monetary policy tightening. At the same time, a faster reduction in inflation takes place when fiscal consolidation supports the monetary policy response. The empirical analysis and calibrated model suggest that fiscal policy can play a critical in role in tackling inflation, with important welfare enhancing implications.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Cote d’Ivoire focuses on assessing the scope for domestic revenue mobilization. Côte d’Ivoire’s tax revenue has been increasing in recent years, supported by the authorities’ efforts, particularly on tax administration and digitalization. However, tax revenue remains low by international standards reflecting tax exemptions as well as low level of indirect taxation and noncompliance. While recent tax measures are encouraging, more policy changes are necessary, and should be anchored in comprehensive tax policy and administration reforms to boost revenue mobilization. Côte d’Ivoire’s tax policy reforms should focus on simplifying the personal income tax regime and enhancing its progressivity; reducing or eliminating discretionary and statutory tax exemptions; and harnessing unrealized revenue potential of property and excise taxes. Tax administration reforms should be sustained to further modernize tax and customs administration; deepen digitalization; and enhance management of human resources.
International Monetary Fund
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
, and
World Bank
The international organizations (IOs) authoring this report can strengthen their individual and joint work to support governments in this endeavor. While the brunt of this work lies with finance ministries, trade ministries, and sectoral and specialized agencies of national governments, international organizations have key roles to play. The four authoring institutions are examining ways to help, individually and jointly, such as by collecting, organizing, and sharing data, coordinating analytical work agendas to develop methodologies to assess the cross-border effects of different forms of subsidies, and supporting inter-governmental dialogues. This will involve reaching out to and working with other international institutions as well.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Zimbabwe’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic that has resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity, and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Zimbabwe and globally. With another poor harvest expected, growth in 2020 is projected at near zero, following a sharp contraction in 2019, with food shortages continuing. With no progress on clearing longstanding external arrears, the authorities face a difficult balance of pursuing tight monetary, to reduce very high inflation, and fiscal policies to address the macroeconomic imbalances and build confidence in the currency, while averting a crisis. Pressures are mounting to increase spending on wages and for social protection to mitigate the impact of the weather shocks and high inflation. While the 2020 budget includes a significant increase in social spending, it is likely insufficient to meet the pressing needs.