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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 236 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Poland, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes various factors that show potential growth in Poland. Poland has achieved substantial economic convergence within the EU. Labor productivity growth was robust until the disruptions from coronavirus disease. Poland’s economic convergence within the EU is expected to continue albeit at a slower pace. Using a production function approach, IMF now estimates that Poland’s potential growth to remain solid, but gradually decline, reaching 2.7 percent by 2029. Moving forward, the labor supply is expected to comprise a substantial drag on potential output. Policies should focus on deepening capital, facilitating resource reallocation, supporting labor supply, and enhancing innovation capacity. Strengthening vocational training and skill-matching could improve skills and allocative efficiency. Raising labor force participation among older cohorts should be complemented by enhancing adult learning. Poland has closed on Europe’s productivity frontier in most sectors. In order to sustain growth, it will need to transition from technology adoption. Government incentives and the financial system should be geared toward creating a conducive environment for R&D and other innovation activities, including by promoting private equity and venture capital.
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Polish economy is recovering, driven by a rebound in domestic demand. Private consumption growth is being driven by rising nominal and real wages, and lower inflation; still, inflation remains well above target against a tight labor market. The outlook is positive, supported by the absorption of Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, with growth expected to accelerate further in 2025–2026. Absent surprises, inflation should peak before mid-2025, and then moderate to slightly above the upper end of the central bank’s target range by end-2025. Medium-term growth is expected to moderate as the impact of NGEU funds absorption unwinds. Nevertheless, there is substantial uncertainty with risks tilted to the downside for growth and upside for inflation. The overarching objective is to balance the mix of monetary and fiscal policy and preserve debt sustainability, while strengthening the economy to face longer term challenges. Growth engines that delivered past success in convergence to EU income levels are threatened by diminishing cost-competitiveness, population aging, limited capital deepening, and the climate transition, on top of a subdued growth outlook in the main trading partners.
Keywords:
currency of Poland; IMF staff calculation; consultation cycle; holdings of SDR; Policy recommendation; Inflation; Credit; Labor markets; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market. A key result from the policy simulations is that, while the policies target various stages of the labor market, they have similar macroeconomic impacts. In this regard, it is important for policymakers to focus on policies with the largest potential impact relative to the cost of implementation. Additionally, policies should be combined with careful monitoring and updating to ensure that they remain effective and efficient.
Keywords:
gender wage gap; ECB monetary policy PASSTHROUGH; EU integration; women wage; ECB policy rate Passthrough; wage gender gap; Pensions; Pension spending; Labor markets; Digitalization; Public employment; Europe; Global; Western Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Aligning the Stabilizing Expenditure Rule to the European Union Fiscal Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Expenditure rule; Fiscal rule; Correction mechanism; EU economic governance; fiscal framework; Debt; Expenditure baseline; Republic of Poland.; SER limit; net expenditure path; EU net expenditure indicator; expenditure path; Fiscal rules; EU governance framework; Fiscal governance; Fiscal councils; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses opportunities and challenges of climate adaptation policies in Moldova. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters will require significant adaptation investments in the coming years. This paper shows that such investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, will be more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and will contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives. However, due to limited domestic financial resources in a complex economic environment, Moldova cannot finance the most-needed adaptation investments without endangering public debt sustainability or hindering its growth potential. Therefore, external support will be critical to help meet the adaptation needs.
Keywords:
quantifying Adaptation investment; Adaptation gap; macro impact; debt financing of Adaptation investment; economic growth in Moldova; Corruption; Infrastructure; Climate change; Natural disasters; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2022: The Scramble for Energy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, December 2022
Keywords:
energy transition; West Indies cricket team; fossil fuel use; energy consumption; West Indies cricket journey; Renewable energy; Fuel prices; Non-renewable resources; Energy prices; Electricity; Europe; Global; Caribbean; Africa; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Public investment is expected to play a significant role in the post-pandemic economic recovery in Poland. Like other countries in the region, Poland lags more advanced European economies in the quantity and quality of its infrastructure despite significant progress in the last decade. The Government’s recent economic plan—the New Polish Deal—foresee an extensive economic and investment plan of which many investments will benefit from the large support from the European Union funds to scale up green, digital, and resilient investments. In this context, the public investment management assessment (PIMA) was conducted to assess strengths and weaknesses of infrastructure governance in Poland and identify potential bottlenecks for making the most of these investments in terms of quality of infrastructure.
Keywords:
IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; management institution; authorities of a Poland; D. investment allocation; public finance; Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Budget planning and preparation; Eastern Europe; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parameterizing Debt Maturity
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Christopher Johns
This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We compile a novel dataset of all promised future payments for US and UK government debt from every month since 1869, and more recently for Peru, Poland, Egypt, and Nigeria. We show that there is a unique parametric form which does not arbitrarily restrict debt issuance – portfolios of bonds with exponential coupons. Compared to the most popular alternative, this form 1) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but – because parameter estimates are relatively similar across countries – also for monitoring changes in debt maturity, including in countries where data are partial or incomplete.
Keywords:
maturity structure; debt maturity; MLE estimate; debt issuance; debt obligation; Bonds; Securities markets; Securities; Emerging and frontier financial markets
Cover Policy Papers
Fund Support for Debt- and Debt-Service-Reduction Operations
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
, and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The note concludes that the Fund could support a member’s use of buybacks, cash sweeteners, or collateral in the context of a Fund-supported program, provided that (i) debt restructurings using buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral offer significant efficiency gains relative to debt restructurings that do not rely on such instruments, but are underpinned by a regular Fund-supported program; and (ii) an adequate cushion of non-multilateral debt remains after the operation. The conditions under which buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral can be expected to deliver significant efficiency gains are narrow and specified in some detail.
Keywords:
PP; fund staff; DDSR Policy; Fund-financing of buyback; Fund-supported DDSROs; debtor country; Fund-financed DDSROs; cash payment; DDSRO operation; Debt relief; Debt restructuring; Debt reduction; Debt service; Currencies; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Legal Aspects of Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Bank and Monetary Law Considerations
Wouter Bossu
,
Mr. Masaru Itatani
, and
Arthur D. P. Rossi
This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational risks for central banks. While the appropriate design of the legal framework will up to a degree depend on the design features of the CBDC, some general conclusions can be made. First, most central bank laws do not currently authorize the issuance of CBDC to the general public. Second, from a monetary law perspective, it is not evident that “currency” status can be attributed to CBDC. While the central bank law issue can be solved through rather straithforward law reform, the monetary law issue poses fundmental legal policy challenges.
Keywords:
Central Bank Digital Currency; CBDC; Blockchain; Cryptocurrency; Crypto assets; WP; central bank law; monetary unit; book money; digital currency; law reform; token-based CBDC; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Central bank legislation; Legal support in revenue administration; Payment systems