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Nicoletta Feruglio
,
Bryn Welham
,
Paul G Seeds
, and
Murray Petrie
An IMF team conducted a Climate Public Investment Management Assessment in Papua New Guinea. This analysis identified some emerging areas of effectiveness related to management of public investment from a climate perspective, but also identified many key weaknesses throughout the public investment cycle that affect efficiency and effectiveness of infrastructure delivery in the face of climate change related challenges. The mission team identified three urgent priority and eight high priority recommendations to improve public investment management from a climate change perspective.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Third Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Requests for Extension, Rephasing of Access, and Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains positive, with growth expected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2023, supported by the resumption of activities at the Porgera gold mine and improvements in access to foreign exchange. Given the country’s high vulnerability to climate change, managing its impact is critical to the success of the authorities’ poverty reduction and sustainable growth agenda. The ECF/EFF and RSF programs will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, focusing on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, fostering good governance and building climate resilience, while protecting the vulnerable and promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.
William Joseph Crandall
,
Elizabeth Gavin
,
Maureen Kidd
, and
Andrew R Masters
This technical note provides detailed and updated information on the semi-autonomous Revenue Authority (RA) governance model for revenue administration, a model developed 40 years ago and used by some 35 administrations world-wide. The update is provided through a review of relevant legislation, questionnaire results, and outcomes of a series of seminars. The RA governance model has a unique governance structure that includes a Minister, a board of management, and a Chief Executive Officer - three partners. RAs are set up using specific enabling legislation. Clarity in the language used in the law is critical for establishing the exact roles of the three partners. The board of management is unique in that it usually has a more limited role (due in part to the confidentiality of individual taxpayer information) than a board of directors in a private sector corporation. Emerging issues with these boards are examined, and it is noted that some see the RA board role as becoming more closely aligned with private sector boards of directors. RAs were initially founded on the belief that more nimble HR practices and appropriate funding would result in more robust revenue administration. While it is difficult to establish direct causality between the adoption of the RA governance model and improved revenue administration, practitioners are convinced this is the case and that the HR and funding advantages need to be protected.
Joseph Kogan
,
Romina Kazandjian
,
Shijia Luo
,
Moustapha Mbohou
, and
Hui Miao
Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress through liquidity and conditionality channels. We find that global financial conditions and debt/GDP are the most important determinants of access to ICM within the horizon of a typical IMF arrangement. Using an event study methodology, we show that spreads increase prior to the start of an IMF arrangement and then decrease gradually. By exploiting different characteristics of IMF arrangements, we find evidence that the reforms implemented under the IMF arrangement, as measured by rounds of successful IMF reviews, matter more in the medium term than the IMF’s role as a liquidity provider. These results are consistent with our analysis of 55 credit rating upgrades to ICM access levels, which suggests that debt reduction plays the largest role and that IMF arrangements lend credibility to reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Second Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria. The authorities should now build on these achievements and sustain their reform efforts toward more resilient, inclusive and sustainable growth. In order to address debt vulnerabilities, fiscal consolidation should continue, while creating fiscal space to meet development and climate adaptation needs and devising contingency plans to anticipate the possible materialization of fiscal risks, including from natural disasters. The program performance recorded over the second review period continues to attest to the authorities’ strong commitment to reforms. They have successfully advanced the implementation of their reform agenda, while overcoming technical and institutional capacity constraints. The program will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth, with a focus maintained on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and anti-corruption frameworks.
Barend C De La Beer
and
Eduard Moskalenko
The International Monetary Fund’s mission to Papua New Guinea sought to revitalize the development of fiscal and debt statistics following a period of disruption caused by a ransomware attack, Covid-19, and high staff turnover. To that end, the mission provided a combination of formal training and technical assistance on the priority development areas, notably on the resolution of the general data quality issues, the expansion of the statistical coverage to the provincial tier of government, and the compilation of debt statistics for the state-owned enterprises.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper focuses on Papua New Guinea’s First Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria. Papua New Guinea’s economic outlook remains favorable. The medium-term outlook is positive but subject to both large upside and downside risks. The strong program performance recorded in the first six months of the ECF/EFF arrangements attests to the authorities’ sustained commitment to reforms, successfully overcoming technical and institutional capacity constraints. Program performance has been strong, with all end-June 2023 performance criteria met and all structural benchmarks implemented. The program will continue to support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth, with a focus maintained on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Papua New Guinea’s Requests for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The 38-month arrangement will support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, which seeks to help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth. The reforms will focus on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating foreign exchange shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework. The medium-term outlook is positive: there are good prospects of new investments in the resource sector, which would boost growth, exports, and fiscal revenue collection. The ECF/EFF arrangements will help address balance of payment needs and rebuild the buffers needed to facilitate a gradual and orderly return to greater exchange rate flexibility. The program will also go toward financing the budget, thereby supporting the authorities’ ambitious fiscal consolidation plans while avoiding a disruptive adjustment. It is also expected to play a catalytic role with other development partners. Given the institutional and technical capacity constraints faced by the authorities, reform measures supported by the program are streamlined, focused, and will be carefully sequenced. Timely capacity development and advice from the IMF will support reform implementation throughout the duration of the program.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Papua New Guinea (PNG)’s economy is weathering the pandemic well, despite many challenges. Real GDP in 2022 is projected to exceed its 2019 level, and the medium-term outlook is positive, supported by investment in (and revenues from) the resource sector. The war in Ukraine is impacting PNG through higher commodity prices and higher inflation, with the former leading to a stronger balance of payments and higher fiscal revenues, since PNG is a large commodity producer. Risks remain skewed to the downside and include a worsening health situation given the low vaccination rate, volatility in commodity prices, and political instability.