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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents The Gambia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic activity continued to recover robustly. Inflation eased but remains well above the central bank’s medium-term objective. Following the adoption of a new foreign exchange policy, the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates has largely closed. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions. Performance under program has been satisfactory. Continued implementation of the reforms will help address medium- and long-term macroeconomic challenges and catalyze additional financing from development partners and the private sector. The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation firmly declines. It will also continue close implementation of the recently introduced foreign exchange policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages and any wedge with the parallel market. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and business environment.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has implemented expanded and comprehensive transparency practices in a number of areas, notably related to the primary mandate of price stability and the shared mandate of financial stability. This reflects the BAM’s public commitment to transparency anchored in the new 2019 BAM Law and articulated as a strategic orientation under the quinquennial plan for 2019-2023. This level of transparency enabled the BAM to gain the noteworthy trust of the stakeholders met by the mission and to safeguard its autonomy.
Andres Gonzalez
,
Mr. Etibar Jafarov
,
Diego Rodriguez Guzman
, and
Chris Walker
Bolivia has achieved noteworthy success over the past 15 years in raising incomes, reducing poverty, and maintaining macroeconomic stability by deploying commodity revenues to finance transfers, public investment, and state-led development, using an exchange rate peg as a policy anchor. However, with the end of the commodity boom in 2014, fiscal deficits have grown and reserves have fallen. One route to restoring long-run sustainability would be to combine fiscal consolidation with a switch to a floating exchange rate. However, a preference for maintaining the peg could be accommodated with adjustments elsewhere in the policy framework. Employing a detailed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Bolivian economy, this study assesses the long-run sustainability and relative benefits of alternative policy combinations, and calculates optimal adjustment paths for the transition from the present situation to the steady state. It concludes that continued adherence to a fixed-rate regime, while not optimal, is feasible, if supported by a larger fiscal effort.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Since the 2021 Spring Meetings, the IEO has concluded its evaluation on Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs and has made significant headway in three other evaluations. Good progress has also been made in following up on past IEO evaluations. However, it was disappointing that the recent implementation plan aimed at strengthening IMF collaboration with the World Bank on climate and other macro-structural issues did not include a commitment to one key Board-endorsed recommendation, specifically to develop a concrete framework for Bank-Fund collaboration on climate issues.
Wouter Bossu
,
Mr. Masaru Itatani
, and
Arthur D. P. Rossi
This paper analyzes the legal foundations of central bank digital currency (CBDC) under central bank and monetary law. Absent strong legal foundations, the issuance of CBDC poses legal, financial and reputational risks for central banks. While the appropriate design of the legal framework will up to a degree depend on the design features of the CBDC, some general conclusions can be made. First, most central bank laws do not currently authorize the issuance of CBDC to the general public. Second, from a monetary law perspective, it is not evident that “currency” status can be attributed to CBDC. While the central bank law issue can be solved through rather straithforward law reform, the monetary law issue poses fundmental legal policy challenges.
Wilfried A. Kouamé
and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This paper discusses that the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) has also launched three new evaluations—which will analyze the IMF’s role on fragile states, its financial surveillance activities, and its advice on unconventional monetary policies—and two evaluation updates—which will look into the IMF’s exchange rate policy advice and structural conditionality. The evaluation found that, for the most part, the IMF’s euro area surveillance identified the right issues during the pre-crisis period but did not foresee the magnitude of the risks that would later become paramount. The IMF’s surveillance of the financial regulatory architecture was generally of high quality, but staff, along with most other experts, missed the buildup of banking system risks in some countries. The report found several issues with the way decision making was managed by the IMF. In May 2010, the IMF Executive Board approved a decision to provide exceptional access financing to Greece without seeking preemptive debt restructuring, even though its sovereign debt was not deemed sustainable with a high probability.

Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
,
Steven J Davis
,
Arata Ito
,
Naoko Miake
, and
Ikuo Saito
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Moisés J. Schwartz
and
Ray C. Rist

Abstract

The benefits of independent evaluation in international financial institutions have long been recognized. However, independent evaluation in these organizations is of increased relevance during uncertain times that call for more credible and legitimate institutions. While evaluation has long played a function in the IMF, and its role has expanded substantially with the creation of the IEO, independent evaluation has yet to take on a role within the IMF that fully reflects its potential contribution. A strong global economy requires a strong IMF, and a strong IMF requires a strong independent evaluation culture and practice. The establishment of the IEO was only the start of a process that still needs to be fostered and cultivated. Successful independent evaluation is important for the IMF to be perceived as legitimate and credible—and to achieve it, the independent evaluation function needs to be further integrated in the learning process and culture of the Fund. Independent evaluation has played a significant role in contributing to the improvement of the IMF, but the pending challenge is for the IMF and the IEO to create a shared culture that fully embraces the purpose and mission of the IEO, and the learning opportunities offered by independent evaluation. The IMF’s organizational culture has a profound role to play in prompting actions to make learning from independent evaluation a more vibrant element of the Fund’s activities. This book calls on IMF management to take a more active role in instilling the positive value of independent evaluation across the organization and thus enabling independent evaluation to bring the IMF closer to what the literature defines as the ideal of a “learning organization.”