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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 18 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Request for an Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have requested a three-month extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement set to expire on January 20, 2025. The three-year arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on January 21, 2022, with access of SDR 324.0 million (200 percent of quota). The extension seeks to allow sufficient time to complete the sixth (and final) review. The additional time needed would allow: (i) the authorities to complete remaining reforms; (ii) staff and the authorities to reach understandings on appropriate policies to support the completion of the 6th ECF review for the Republic of Congo, prepare documents and circulate them for Board consideration; and (iii) the Executive Board to discuss the review of regional policies and policy assurances for CEMAC, which is critical for the success of Congo’s Fund-supported program.
Keywords:
IMF's transparency policy; ECF arrangement; liquidity pressure; ECF review; reform progress; filets Sociaux; Inclusive growth; Government debt management; Revenue mobilization; Liquidity
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Macao Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s economy rebounded strongly after the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 containment measures in Mainland China. Real gross domestic product increased by 80.5 percent in 2023, recovering much of the decline during the pandemic. A stronger slump in the Mainland’s property sector and higher for longer interest rates in the major economies are the main short-term risks to the outlook. The secular growth slowdown in Mainland China could weigh on Macao SAR’s medium-term growth. Moreover, medium-term growth could be adversely affected by extreme climate events. The authorities should encourage banks to hold higher provisioning to bolster their shock absorbing capacity, enhance the insolvency and debt resolution and restructuring frameworks, and strengthen systemic risk assessment and monitoring. Economy-wide structural reforms focused on incentivizing R&D and innovation, upskilling and reskilling the labor force, and streamlining labor and business regulations would be key for achieving the government’s economic diversification objectives. A comprehensive assessment of investment needs for climate adaptation and its integration in the medium-term fiscal plan would buttress the authorities’ efforts to enhance the economy’s resilience against climate-related disasters.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; transaction rate; article IV process; Board discussion; headline inflation; Commercial banks; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
When Does Capacity Development Achieve Good Outcomes? Evidence from the IMF Results-Based Management Data
Antonio Bassanetti
Capacity development is one of the IMF’s core activities. Its impact is monitored through a Results-Based Management framework. Using for the first time the resulting dataset, the paper investigates how the likelihood of achieving targeted outcomes correlates with macroeconomic conditions and project-specific characteristics. Results indicate a positive correlation with per capita GDP growth and the involvement of resident advisors and regional centers. Results also confirm lower chances of achieving targeted outcomes for fragile, conflict-affected, and small states as well as in complex projects. These findings inform Fund CD strategy, prioritization and delivery to help member countries achieve better outcomes.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Evaluation; Results-Based Management; outcome rating; core activity; CD Project design; results chain; management data; IMF CD; Probit models; Central bank operations; Tax administration core functions; Western Hemisphere; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Departmental Papers
Private Finance for Development: Wishful Thinking or Thinking Out of the Box?
Hilary Devine
,
Adrian Peralta-Alva
,
Hoda Selim
,
Preya Sharma
,
Ludger Wocken
, and
Luc Eyraud
The Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated the tension between large development needs in infrastructure and scarce public resources. To alleviate this tension and promote a strong and job-rich recovery from the crisis, Africa needs to mobilize more financing from and to the private sector.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals; Development Finance; investment risk; participation reform; targeted government incentive; public funds; finance flow; Infrastructure; Private investment; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Income; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Income Inequality in Small States and the Caribbean: Stylized Facts and Determinants
Arnold McIntyre
,
Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Rising income inequality has emerged as a major policy issue facing policymakers, but there is a dearth of empirical work on inequality in small states, including the Caribbean. Despite data limitations, the empirical analysis using a sample of small states finds that increased openness and deeper economic integration including financial market openness is associated with lower income inequality, whereas elevated debt levels limit fiscal space and are associated with higher income inequality. An important policy implication is that well targeted social sector spending aimed at improving education and health indicators will support increased redistribution and reduce income inequality.
Keywords:
Small States; economic development; globalization; Gini at market income; absolute redistribution and income redistribution policies.; WP; market Gini coefficient; redistribution policy; market income; FDI inflow; Caribbean dummy variable; idiosyncratic income shock
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.

Keywords:
REO; Sub-Saharan Africa; commodity; revenue; economy; export diversification; frontier economy; exchange rate; export product diversification index; IMF staff calculation; Fiscal consolidation; Export diversification; Fiscal stance; Exports; Africa; Global; West Africa; Southern Africa; commodity revenue; Theil index; Caribbean; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Enforcing Public-Private Partnership Contract: How do Fiscal Institutions Matter?
Manabu Nose
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have increased rapidly in emerging and developing countries, creating both opportunities and fiscal challenges. One of the main challenges is that while governments have increased commitments in guarantees and direct subsidies to promote PPPs, contractual disputes remain high with significant costs. This paper examines how fiscal institutions affect the selection of PPP contracts and the probability of contract disputes using about 6,000 PPP contract-level data. The analysis shows that larger government financing needs, lower budget transparency and bureaucratic efficiency are associated with higher probability for governments to offer guarantees. Propensity score matching results show that disputes are more common for guaranteed contracts due to adverse selection and contingent liability effects. PPP management quality and budget transparency are found to be key determinants for a longer survival of PPPs.
Keywords:
WP; adverse selection; capital stock; Public-private partnerships; public investment management; fiscal risk; propensity score matching; dispute risk; PPP contract; drive government decision; PIM quality index; government involvement; government financing; dispute case; management quality; indebted government; PPP investment; provision of guarantee; PPP project; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Contingent liabilities; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity: Crossing the Tipping Point
Vitor Gaspar
,
Laura Jaramillo
, and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
An empirical finding by Gaspar, Jaramillo and Wingender (2016) shows that once countries cross a tax-to-GDP threshold of around 12¾ percent, real GDP per capita increases sharply and in a sustained manner over the following decade. In this paper, we attempt via four case studies—Spain, China, Colombia, and Nigeria—to illustrate that the improvements in tax capacity have been part of a deeper process of state capacity building. We discuss the political conditions that supported tax capacity building, highlighting three important political ingredients: constitutive institutions, inclusive politics and credible leadership.
Keywords:
WP; tax capacity; income tax; Lagos State government; real GDP; tax reform; tax threshold; income per capita; taxation; development; institutions; political economy; government activity; UDC government; State revenue staff; progressive tax; Subnational tax; Tax administration core functions; Tax return filing compliance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?
Vitor Gaspar
,
Laura Jaramillo
, and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
Is there a minimum tax to GDP ratio associated with a significant acceleration in the process of growth and development? We give an empirical answer to this question by investigating the existence of a tipping point in tax-to-GDP levels. We use two separate databases: a novel contemporary database covering 139 countries from 1965 to 2011 and a historical database for 30 advanced economies from 1800 to 1980. We find that the answer to the question is yes. Estimated tipping points are similar at about 12¾ percent of GDP. For the contemporary dataset we find that a country just above the threshold will have GDP per capita 7.5 percent larger, after 10 years. The effect is tightly estimated and economically large.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; growth rate; base year; tax-to-GDP ratio; income per capita; taxation; development; multiple equilibria; tax-to-GDP threshold; tax-to-GDP level; point estimate; tax-to-GDP distribution; tax-to-GDP tipping point; State capacity; GDP series; Social security contributions; Legal support in revenue administration; Public investment spending; Threshold analysis; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
and
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.
Keywords:
WP; cost of living; Household consumption; Income growth; CPI Bias; price deflator; bias estimate; consumption expenditure; measurement error; survey cross-sections; income variable; Income; Consumption; Consumer price indexes; Public expenditure review