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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Samoa: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
money transfer operator; sectoral risk assessment; Australia labour mobility; transaction report; remittance corridor; risk remittance product; Remittances; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Medium taxpayer office; Correspondent banking; Financial sector; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover La aduana, una institución clave
La aduana, una institución clave
Fortaleciendo la administración aduanera en un mundo de cambios
Augusto Azael Pérez Azcárraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

Las administraciones de aduanas ven surgir nuevos retos a medida que aumenta el volumen del comercio internacional, aparece nueva tecnología y cambian los modelo de negocio. Este libro analiza los cambios y desafíos que enfrentan las administraciones de aduanas y propone formas de abordarlos. Describe los problemas que las autoridades deben tener en cuenta a la hora de elaborar su propia hoja de ruta para la modernización de las aduanas.

Keywords:
aduana; cumplimiento tributario; recaudación de impuestos; evasión fiscal; facilitación del comercio; gestión del riesgo aduanero; seguridad de fronteras; comercio; regímenes fiscales; política comercial; ingreso tributario; operadores comerciales; modernización de la aduana; tecnologías digitales; economía del sector público; administración pública; finanzas públicas; desarrollo económico; avances tecnológicos
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vanuatu: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that as Vanuatu was recovering from the multiple natural disasters of 2023, the voluntary liquidation of Air Vanuatu in May 2024 created a major shock with significant effects on growth and business confidence. There is a strong need to address immediate risks to growth and stability, and then redouble efforts to rebuild buffers and tackle structural issues with policy reforms. Fiscal challenges abound and call for urgent and comprehensive action. In the near term, targeted and strategic support is needed to help stabilize the economy, while ensuring fiscal accounts remain under control. Monetary policy is appropriately accommodative but monetary financing needs to be reduced and eventually stopped. The currency basket needs close monitoring. Structural issues remain ever important, and action is needed such as reprioritization of investment needs and integration to the medium-term fiscal strategy, and an increase in efforts to address labor shortages and skills drain.
Keywords:
control environment; article IV consultation mission; recapitalization plan; Vanuatu's authorities; internal audit function; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt sustainability; Pacific Islands; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond Debt: Net Worth Fiscal Anchors
Hua Chai
,
Jason Harris
, and
Alexander F. Tieman
This paper proposes anchoring medium- to long-term fiscal policy in a Public Sector Net Worth (PSNW) target. Such a target widens the scope of fiscal policy to include public sector assets, in addition to liabilities—the focus of debt-based rules. A PSNW target is directly relevant to ongoing policy debates on green fiscal rules and more generally, the reform of fiscal frameworks (such as the Euro Area’s) to allow for public investment in a high debt environment. Modeling a small open economy with public investment and endogenous growth, we show that, compared to debt-based anchors, a PSNW anchor is more conducive to public investment and economic growth, while providing for sensible policy reactions to changes in long-term interest rates. The net worth anchor also precludes unsustainable debt dynamics. Simulated transition dynamics show that replacing a debt anchor with a net worth anchor does not necessarily lead to higher debt-to-GDP ratios. In addition to the merits of a net worth anchor, the paper also discusses some operational challenges.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; fiscal anchor; public investment; public sector balance sheet; public sector net worth; PSNW anchor; PSNW target; unsustainable debt dynamics; transition dynamics show; public sector asset; Public investment spending; Financial statements; Public sector; Current spending; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyses monetary policy issues in the UK. It examines key macro and financial indicators and assesses the effects of the tightening thus far. The paper finds that monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes, with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages. Additionally, it reveals an outsized impact of federal announcements on UK financial markets and argues that this will place a premium on Bank of England (BoE) communications in a context where the BoE may diverge. Monetary transmission in the UK during the current cycle has mostly worked as expected and has been similar to the experiences in other advanced economies. The paper identifies identify monetary policy surprises through changes in high-frequency market indicators within a narrow window around monetary policy announcement. The results indicate that Federal Open Market Committee spillovers do have a sizable effect on monetary transmission in the UK.
Keywords:
UK construction; UK workforce; spending scenario; Fed Policy spillover; MPC decision; visa regime; Housing; Education spending; Inflation; Global
Cover Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020
Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020
Concepts and Methods
International Monetary Fund
,
International Labour Office
,
Statistical Office of the European Communities
,
United Nations
,
World Bank
, and
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index Manual: Concepts and Methods contains comprehensive information and explanations on compiling a consumer price index (CPI). The Manual provides an overview of the methods and practices national statistical offices (NSOs) should consider when making decisions on how to deal with the various problems in the compilation of a CPI. The chapters cover many topics. They elaborate on the different practices currently in use, propose alternatives whenever possible, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. The primary purpose of the Manual is to assist countries in producing CPIs that reflect internationally recommended methods and practices.

Keywords:
cconsumer price index; CPI; CPI Manual; CPI concepts; CPI methods; CPI practice; CPI best practice; CPI international recommendations; CPI weights; CPI data; CPI compilation; CPI calculation; index formulas; scanner data; web scraping; CPI outlets; CPI publication; CPI dissemination; CPI sampling; CPI items; CPI varieties; CPI missing prices; CPI quality adjustment; CPI linking; CPI and SNA; CPI overview; CPI data collection; CPI uses; CPI definitions; M&G; reference period; price change; price collector; price collection; CPI compiler
Cover Таможенные вопросы
Таможенные вопросы
Укрепление таможенной службы в меняющемся мире
Augusto A Perez Azcarraga
,
Tadatsugu Matsudaira
,
Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
,
Janos Nagy
, and
R. James Clark

Abstract

Перед таможенными службами во всем мире встают новые задачи: растущий объем международной торговли, революция в новых технологиях и фундаментальные изменения в бизнес-моделях. Преимущества хорошо функционирующей таможенной администрации очевидны, равно как и необходимость развития эффективных, действенных, справедливых и современных таможенных администраций. Книга «Таможенные вопросы» анализирует многочисленные изменения и проблемы, с которыми сталкиваются таможенные администрации, и предлагают пути их решения. Предлагая разноплановый взгляд на основные аспекты таможенного администрирования, книга служит руководством для директивных органов и должностных лиц таможенных служб при оценке текущего состояния их таможенных систем в целях разработки, совершенствования или продвижения своих планов действий по модернизации таможенной службы.

Keywords:
таможня; соблюдение обязательств по уплате налогов; принудительное взыскание налогов; уклонение от уплаты налогов; обеспечение безопасности границ; торговля; модернизация налоговой службы; государственная служба; государственные финансы; налог на добавленную стоимость
Cover IMF Working Papers
Housing Affordability: A New Dataset
Nina Biljanovska
,
Mr. Chenxu Fu
, and
Ms. Deniz O Igan
The rapid increase in house prices in the past few years, including during the COVID-19 pandemic, raises concerns about housing affordability. The price-to-income ratio is a widely-used indicator of affordability, but does not take into account important factors such as the cost of financing. The aim of this paper is to construct a measure of housing affordability that takes these factors into account for a large set of countries and long period of time. The resulting dataset covers an unbalanced panel of 40 countries over the period from 1970Q1 to 2021Q4. For each country, the index measures the extent to which a median-income household can qualify for a mortgage loan to purchase an average-priced home. To gauge the performance of the constructed indices, we compare them to other readily-available mesures of affordability and examine the evolution of the indices over time to understand the relevant drivers, including in a regression analysis to assess the extent to which government housing programs could contribute to improving affordability.
Keywords:
housing affordability; real estate markets; government housing program; affordability index; household income; indices in selected country; Housing; Housing prices; Mortgages; Income; Global; Eastern Europe; Baltics