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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Ministry of Finance Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission Report
Boriana Yontcheva
,
Simone M Cuiabano
,
Mehdi El Herradi
, and
Martin Fukac
Further to Mongolia's Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD). Notably, despite FFRD's ambitious goals in fiscal policymaking, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework for analysis, forecasting, and assessing fiscal policy's macroeconomic impact is not yet in place. The action plan and logical framework is centered around capacity development and customization of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) to the Mongolia economy. This note summarizes the main findings and action plan agreed on for the project.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Framework; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM); Mongolia's Ministry of Finance; Mongolia economy; FFRD staff; policy analysis; policy analysis functionality; Macro-fiscal framework; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts
Cover Departmental Papers
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
Enrique Flores
,
Pranav Gupta
,
Yinqiu Lu
,
Paulo A Medas
,
Dinar Prihardini
,
Hoda Selim
,
Weining Xin
, and
Masafumi Yabara
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific became more countercylical and stronger than in other regions—especially in advanced economies. The paper shows that the degree of countercyclicality has been asymetric, with larger responses during periods of weak growth, and in particular in response to large shocks—the global financial crisis and the pandemic. It highlights that responses to the pandemic were large and used a wide range of tools, and how fiscal and monetary policy complemented each as they responded to large shocks. It looks into the deterioration of debt dynamics in Asia-Pacific, as public debt has been rising persistently across most countries driven by declining growth and rising deficits—particualrly after the global financial crisis for advanced economies and after the pandemic for emerging market and low income countries. The paper reviews fiscal frameworks across Asia-Pacific, including the use of fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal frameworks, and fiscal councils. It describes the characteristics of fiscal rules, which usually focus on debt and budget balances and are set by law but tend to lack well-specified enforcement mechanism or escape clauses. It highlights that compliance with the rules has worsened following the pandemic as—in contrast with the outturns before the pandemic--Asia-Pacific countries tend to show larger deviations relative to other regions. It also shows that despite the increase adoption of medium-term fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific forward guidance has been hampered by the lack of binding targets and ex-post analysis. Moreover, they do not seem to have resulted in better macro-fiscal forecast in part due to weak capacity and enforcement, lack of integration with the annual budget, and exposure to shocks—with risk analysis mostly limited to qualitative discussions. Proposed reforms seek to implement a comprehensive, risk-based approach to public finances. They focus on strengthening the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy through credible medium-term fiscal plans, fiscal rules linked to the medium-term strategy and the annual budgets, and a stronger reliance on fiscal councils. They also emphasize the need for a broader view of the public sector as fiscal policy is being conducted through multiple channels, which requires assessing and managing vulnerabilities and a significant improvement in fiscal statistics. They also address aging and climate change by focusing on assessing large intergenerational trade-offs, reporting on long-term debt dynamics, and on green medium-term fiscal frameworks that incorporate the effects of climate change and climate policies.
Keywords:
Fiscal Rules Fiscal Frameworks Medium-term Fiscal Frameworks Public Debt Sustainability automatic stabilizers Climate Change Population Aging; Asia-Pacific country; Asia-Pacific economy; Asia-Pacific region; IMF country team; SRDSF country; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Mongolia: Public Investment Management Assessment Update
Guohua Huang
,
Ozlem Aydin
,
Lishuo Li
, and
Juana Aristizabal
An IMF team found that Mongolia has made progress in public investment management since the 2016 PIMA. However, several challenges persist, and new issues are emerging. The team has identified five high-priority recommendations that could improve PIM processes and support the effective implementation of the government's investment aspirations.
Keywords:
Public investment management; IMF team; high-priority recommendation; capacity development recipient; investment plan; project appraisal; Public investment spending; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Budget planning and preparation; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Mongolia—Assessment Letter for the Asian Development Bank
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This letter updates the assessment of Mongolia’s economic conditions since the conclusion of the IMF’s 2023 Article IV consultation on September 14, 2023. The assessment has been requested in relation to the program loan under the Asian Development Bank’s Policy Based Lending modality.
Keywords:
Inflation; External balances; Economic growth; Mineral exports; Fiscal policies; PBOC swap line; target band; stronger-than-expected commodity price; DBM's governance; headline inflation; IMF staff forecast; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with Mongolia highlights that growth rebounded to 5.0 percent in 2022 and the external position stabilized as a result of China’s reopening, the government’s determined efforts to boost exports, and private sector financing inflows. The procyclical fiscal stimulus from the supplementary budget will lift near term growth and inflation but entails increased macroeconomic stability risks. The growth boost from the stimulus is expected to fade from 2024 onward as higher inflation and external pressures begin to weigh on the non-mining sector. Fiscal consolidation and adherence to fiscal rules are critical to ensure macroeconomic stability. Consolidation should entail measures to contain the wage bill, prioritize public investment, increase progressivity in personal income taxes, introduce means-tested social assistance targeting, and continued improvements in public investment management and tax and customs administration. External buffers should be strengthened to build resilience to external shocks. A comprehensive development agenda is needed to reduce medium-term vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; swap line; IMF expert; IMF TA; market segmentation; fund staff; Inflation; Non-renewable resources; Commercial banks; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries?
Ablam Estel Apeti
,
Olivier Basdevant
, and
Ms. Veronique Salins
This paper investigates the performance of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries (RRC). Using panel data for 57 commodity exporting countries from 1976 to 2021, we find that fiscal rules: (i) reduce the procyclicality of real public expenditures with terms of trade in oil exporting countries, and (ii) improve non-resource primary balances in all RRC, especially during terms of trade upturns. The rules’ design matters. Addressing the procyclicality of public expenditures with terms-of-trade can be achieved with expenditure rules, and, for oil-exporters, revenue rules (althoug limited data on the latter calls for taking the results cautiously). To improve non-resource fiscal balances, debt rules and fiscal balance rules are shown to have a positive impact, especially in oil exporting countries. We further investigate the effect of fiscal rules and other features of the fiscal framework through case studies (for Botswana, Mongolia, and Timor-Leste). These cases highlight that even when fiscal rules are not fully complied with, they lead to some degree of fiscal discipline. The case studies also highlight the importance of the quality of fiscal frameworks: frequent revisions, lack of compliance or low stringency of the rules can significantly hamper their effectiveness.
Keywords:
expenditure rule; forecasting commodity price; oil exporter; revenue rule; debt rule; design matter; Fiscal rules; Fiscal stance; Terms of trade; Oil exports; Global
Cover The IMF and Capacity Development: Evaluation Report 2022
The IMF and Capacity Development: Evaluation Report 2022
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

Capacity development (CD) is a key function of the IMF, aiming to assist its member countries develop their institutional and human capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial policies. CD has been provided to all IMF member countries at some point, although it is directed mainly toward low- and middle-income countries. CD represents about one-third of the IMF’s administrative budget, having expanded substantially in the past decade. This evaluation assesses how effective the IMF has been in meeting the CD needs and expectations of recipient countries, and the Fund’s institutional objectives for CD, during 2012-20. It also provides an initial review of how IMF CD adapted to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The evaluation finds that IMF CD was relevant, valued, and broadly effective. Recipients, donors, and the wider membership saw IMF CD as being of the highest technical quality in the Fund’s core areas of expertise and generally perceived that it had become better tailored to recipient needs and circumstances. Overall, Fund CD has supported member countries in building the institutional capacity, in a very wide range of country circumstances. The IMF has also put substantial effort into integrating CD with surveillance and programs, which has in general enhanced its overall engagement with member countries. While recognizing these achievements, the evaluation also identifies a number of important shortcomings and challenges. The evaluation includes recommendations to enhance the strategic framework for, and prioritization of, CD; information available to Executive Directors and opportunities to exercise their oversight role; the integration of CD with surveillance and programs, particularly in the context of programs; CD ownership and delivery; the monitoring and evaluation framework; the sustainability of the CD funding model; and HR policies and incentives to maintain and develop the expertise in the Fund’s core and newly emerging CD topics.

Keywords:
Capacity Development; Technical Assistance; Training; Donors; Capacity Building; Institutional Capacity; IMF CD; CD strategy review; CD resource; CD ownership; CD work; COVID-19; Absorptive capacity; Climate change; Information and data management; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Central America; Southeast Asia; North Africa; Africa; Western Hemisphere; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations
Berkay Akyapi
,
Mr. Matthieu Bellon
, and
Emanuele Massetti
A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address this issue, we rely on global daily weather measurements with a 30-km spatial resolution from 1979 to 2019 and construct 164 weather variables and their lags. We select a parsimonious subset of relevant weather variables using an algorithm based on the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. We also expand the literature by analyzing weather impacts on government revenue, expenditure, and debt, in addition to GDP per capita. We find that an increase in the occurrence of high temperatures and droughts reduce GDP, whereas more frequent mild temperatures have a positive impact. The share of GDP variations that is explained by weather as captured by the handful of our selected variables is much higher than what was previously implied by using annual temperature and precipitation averages. We also find evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies that mitigate adverse weather shocks, especially excessive or unusually low precipitation episodes.
Keywords:
climate; extreme weather; macro economy; big data; weather variable; weather shock; OLS estimation outcome; climate variable; weather data sources; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia; East Africa; GDP effect; weather observation
Cover Policy Papers
FY2023-FY2025 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
FY2023-FY2025 Medium-Term Budget
Keywords:
targeted budget augmentation framework; financial support; B. budget change; capital budget; budget resource; augmentation allocation; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Digital currencies; Climate change; Global; Budgeting; Budgets; Capital Budget; Augmentation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact
Constance de Soyres
,
Reina Kawai
, and
Mengxue Wang
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.
Keywords:
Sovereign Debt; Growth; IMF predictions; public debt shock; GDP ratio; public debt trajectory; evolution of public debt; level classification; Debt relief; Global