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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff
Ting Lan
,
Galen Sher
, and
Jing Zhou
We analyze the potential impacts on the German economy of a complete and permanent shutoff of the remaining Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, accounting for the curtailment of flows through Nord Stream 1 that has already taken place. We find that such a scenario could lead to gas shortages of 9 percent of national consumption in the second half of 2022, 10 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024, which would be worse in the winter months, and would likely fall on firms, given legal protections on households. We combine the effects of less gas on production with the consequent effects of reduced supply of intermediate goods and services to downstream firms, and with reduced economic activity due to rising uncertainty. Together, these three channels reduce German GDP relative to baseline levels by about 1.5 percent in 2022, 2.7 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024, with no gains in subsequent years from deferred economic activity. The associated rise in wholesale gas prices could increase inflation by about 2 percentage points on average in 2022 and 2023. Our simulations suggest that the economic impacts can be reduced significantly by having households voluntarily share a small part of the burden, and by rationing gas supplies more to more gas-intensive and downstream firms. We also suggest other ways to enhance German energy security.
Keywords:
Energy supply; energy security; natural gas; embargo; rationing; fragmentation; GDP impact; gas shortage scenario; energy inflation Passthrough; impacts of gas shortage; gas supplies; Consumption; Inflation; Fuel prices; Energy pricing; Operational risk; Europe; Asia and Pacific; gas consumption; production function; gas usage requirement; gas shock; Energy prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
Doing More with Less: How Can Brazil Foster Development While Pursuing Fiscal Consolidation?
Valentina Flamini
and
Mauricio Soto
Following a benchmarking exercise, we estimate the spending required to reach satisfactory progress in the Sustainable Development Goals in the health, education, and infrastructure sectors in Brazil. We find that there is room for savings in education (up to 1.5 percentage point of GDP) and health (up to 2.5 percentage points of GDP) without compromising the quality of services but additional investments for over 3 percent of GDP per year are needed to close large infrastructure gaps in roads, water, and electricity by 2030. Brazil can do more with less, but increasing efficiency of public spending will require substantial reforms.
Keywords:
WP; spending; cost; infrastructure gap; generation capacity; SDGs; development; fiscal policy; public spending; Brazil; pf GDP; Health expenditure distribution; spending ceiling; GDP Capita; Infrastructure SDG cost; GDP loss; cost estimate; Brazil's GDP; infrastructure quality; spending floor; Infrastructure; Health care spending; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Attaining Selected Sustainable Development Goals in Guatemala: Spending, Provision, and Financing Needs
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
and
Mauricio Soto
Raising living standards continues to be the main challenge facing Guatemala, as a matter of economic success and social cohesion. This paper discusses the spending, financing, and delivery capacity aspects of a viable development strategy for Guatemala couched within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda. Overall, Guatemala faces additional spending of about 8½ percent of GDP in 2030 to attain health, education, and roads, water, and sanitation infrastructure SDGs. While substantial, these cost estimates are commensurate with a well-defined financing strategy encompassing continuing tax administration efforts, broad-based tax reform, scaled-up private sector participation, and greater spending efficiency. Improving delivery capacities is also essential to secure access of those public goods to all Guatemalans, irrespective of their place of residence, ethnic group, or ability to pay.
Keywords:
WP; development outcome; private sector; provision level; spending needs; secondary education; Sustainable Development Goals; Development; Fiscal Policy; healthcare system; spending objective; health risk; Guatemala's healthcare system; education outcome; Guatemala's development outcome; cost saving; Infrastructure; Public expenditure review; Central America
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
,
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Delphine Prady
, and
Mauricio Soto
The goal of this paper is to estimate the additional annual spending required for meaningful progress on the SDGs in these areas. Our estimates refer to additional spending in 2030, relative to a baseline of current spending to GDP in these sectors. Toward this end, we apply an innovative costing methodology to a sample of 155 countries: 49 low- income developing countries, 72 emerging market economies, and 34 advanced economies. And we refine the analysis with five country studies: Rwanda, Benin, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Guatemala.
Keywords:
SDN; developing country; low-income developing countries; emerging market economy; spending; GDP; Sustainable Development Goals; Development; Fiscal Policy; equity-enhancing expenditure priority; spending pressure; enhancing spending efficiency; countries spend; spending estimate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Is the Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?: Issues in Managing Water Challenges and Policy Instruments
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat
,
Mr. Andrew J Swiston
,
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
,
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Ms. Laure Redifer
, and
Mr. Harald Finger
This paper examines water challenges, a growing global concern with adverse economic and social consequences, and discusses economic policy instruments. Water subsidies provided through public utilities are estimated at about $456 billion or 0.6 percent of global GDP in 2012. The paper suggests that getting economic incentives right, notably by reforming water pricing, can go a long way towards encouraging more efficient water use and supporting needed investment, while enabling policies that protect the poor. It also discusses pricing reform options and emphasizes an integrated and holistic approach to manage water, going beyond the water sector itself. The IMF can play a helpful role in ensuring that macroeconomic policies are conducive to sound water management.
Keywords:
SDN; water use; water resource; country water price subsidy; cost recovery; demand management; natural resource; water withdrawal; Water; subsidies; externalities; public utilities; pricing reform; Water resources; Infrastructure; Agricultural sector; Water subsidies; Global; South Asia; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
The Energy Sector Reform and Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Transition Economy: The Case of Romania
Mr. Stéphane Cossé
This paper assesses the main issues faced by the energy sector in a transition economy such as Romania and their macroeconomic dimension. It examines how the size of quasi-fiscal subsidies, owing mainly to inappropriate prices and the lack of financial discipline, has led to an increased focus on the energy sector under the IMF-supported programs. The paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of recent reform measures and discusses the next steps to improve price policy and collection in energy utilities. Shifting to targeted budgetary subsidies appears also to be a crucial reform step.
Keywords:
PDP; firm; government; price; subsidy; firm collection policy; Romania; energy sector; quasi-fiscal activities; macroeconomic stabilization; transition; energy sector company; state-owned company; enterprises' profitability; regulatory authority; district heating company; low income; Natural gas sector; Tariffs; Electricity; Government subsidies; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Europe
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Ukraine's Gas Arrears: Issues and Recommendations
Amer Bisat
This paper discusses issues related to the gas arrears ‘crisis’ in Ukraine. It concludes that the problem, which can be traced to policy distortions, can be contained through an acceleration of structural reforms. The paper examines the nature of the contractual relations between Ukraine and its foreign suppliers; the role of the de facto government guarantee for gas import payments; the process of imposing financial discipline on non-payers; the nature of gas-related subsidy schemes; and the methods used in calculating domestic energy prices. An Appendix derives lessons from the Estonian case--an economy which, despite relatively similar initial conditions, avoided the emergence of energy payment difficulties. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Keywords:
PDP; enterprise; subsidy; supplier; gas arrears; enterprise restructuring; gas import payment; restructuring program; arrears accumulation; gas import company; Arrears; Tariffs; Imports; Import payments; Social assistance spending; Western Europe