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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
quantifying climate; IMF staff calculation; climate change risk; housing affordability; alleviating supply constraint; housing affordability in The bahamas; Climate change; Electricity; Housing; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Second Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The government is committed to continued prudent macroeconomic policies and the implementation of structural reforms, including a series of adaptation and mitigation measures and to preserve and expand its green energy matrix. Barring global and weather-related external shocks, Paraguay’s growth prospects are bright. It remains important for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, including through implementation of long-standing structural reforms. The re-establishment of the fiscal deficit rule by 2026 is rightfully the government’s key priority. The authorities are committed to implementing an ambitious set of climate-related reforms consistent with maximum access under the RSF. The commitment to implement an ambitious matrix of climate-related reforms, closely coordinated with development partners, will help enhance the country’s image as a ‘green’ investment destination.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation-targeting regime; sound capacity; BCP credit survey; RSF request; Climate change; Electricity; Global; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West Bank and Gaza: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on economic divergence in West Bank and Gaza. Years of isolation and continuous conflicts have left Gaza’s economic development far behind that of the West Bank. In 2022, per capita income in Gaza was only a quarter of that in the West Bank, and unemployment and poverty rates were much higher. This reflects much lower employment and investment rates as well as considerably lower productivity growth. While Israeli-imposed restrictions on access and movement of labor and goods severely hinder trade outcomes and productive capacity in both West Bank and Gaza, restrictions are far more severe for Gaza. As a result of this Gaza blockade and repeated wars with Israel since 2008, the capital stock is stagnant and infrastructure is derelict (especially electricity). Analytical work suggests sizeable economic gains from boosting Gaza’s electricity infrastructure. Prospects for declining donor aid risk worsening Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Under these conditions, Gaza is unlikely to meet the U.N. 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. A major easing of the blockade and financing constraints is necessary to improve prospects, provided the security situation can be assured in parallel.
Keywords:
Economic sectors; Financial intermediation; Labor; Trade barriers; Pensions; Pension reform; B. labor markets; I-O Analysis; Defined-Benefit component; A. economic developments; old-age benefit; benefits by career length; Electricity; Infrastructure; Labor markets; Pension spending
Cover Selected Issues Papers
South Africa Carbon Pricing and Climate Mitigation Policy
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Suphachol Suphachalasai
,
Sneha D Thube
, and
Mr. Sébastien Walker
Meeting South Africa’s ambitious climate objectives will require a comprehensive strategy that includes a more effective use of carbon pricing policy, reducing inefficient government subsidies that have delayed the green transition, well-targeted support to affected industries and households, and other green financial and sectoral measures. Implemented well, the mitigation policy package would promote low-carbon investments, raise government revenues, and support economic growth.
Keywords:
South Africa; carbon tax; climate mitigation; decarbonization transition; distributional effects; carbon neutrality; general equilibrium model; mitigation policy package; climate mitigation policy; South Africa carbon pricing; climate objective; carbon tax tax rate; Greenhouse gas emissions; Electricity; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominican Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominican Republic
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dominican Republic’s economy has been one of the most dynamic and resilient in the Western Hemisphere over the last two decades, displaying an impressive recovery from the pandemic, supported by the authorities’ sound policies as well as positive global spillovers. Supported by sound policies and fundamentals, the economic outlook is relatively positive, albeit subject to high uncertainty, mostly due to global risks. Against a backdrop of inflation rapidly declining to target, a growth slowdown amid high uncertainty and near-term downside risks, discussions focused on the required policy mix to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. The near-term policy priority should remain focused toward returning inflation to target and maintaining inflation expectations firmly anchored. Financial supervision should remain vigilant amid tight global financial conditions and global financial stability concerns. Medium-term policies should continue to enhance the credibility of policy frameworks, make further improvements to the business climate, governance, and social safety nets, and persevere with electricity sector reforms. These policies can foster equitable growth and reinforce hard-earned economic and financial stability.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; core inflation; return on equity; near-term policy priority; CPI basket; market expectation; Inflation; Public sector; Electricity; Global; Central America
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Kosovo’s Electricity Sector Challenges and Opportunities: Republic of Kosovo
Gabriel Di Bella
and
Selim Thaci
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, electricity prices in Europe have increased and become more volatile. This coupled with unreliable domestic electricity supply has led to significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. This paper presents several scenarios characterized by alternative assumptions for European electricity prices and domestic electricity production in 2023 in order to gauge their potential impact on the budget and the economy. It also discusses the medium-term benefits, including in terms of increased energy security and reduced emissions and pollution, of diversifying domestic electricity generation away from lignite.
Keywords:
Kosovo; Electricity; Energy; Energy Resources; Energy Utilities; Infrastructure; Pollution; Energy Security; electricity price; sector challenge; E. medium term; medium-term benefit; generation matrix; Natural gas sector; Tariffs; Energy pricing; Imports; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses Iraq’s national pension system by examining the fiscal burden of budget-financed pensions and providing a sustainability analysis of the contributory pension scheme for public sector workers. It also outlines reform options that can assist the authorities in containing the fiscal burden of the pension system, improving its adequacy, and reducing labor market distortions to remove barriers to private sector growth. The fiscal costs of budget-financed pension schemes are expected to remain elevated. A well-crafted transition plan will be key to the success of pension reforms. A gradual transition to a system with rules that are in line with international social security standards and best practices will loosen political economy constraints. Ensuring that the reform has the buy-in of a large group of stakeholders across the bureaucracy, political leadership and employees will increase credibility and protect it from political pressures during electoral cycles.
Keywords:
electricity sector; gains from Reform; title page; demand management; supply-demand gap; Pension spending; Pensions; Electricity; Public sector; Retirement; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that the increase in energy and food prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine is weighing on private demand, activity, and inflation in the Republic of Kosovo. Growth is projected to moderately pick up to 3.5 percent in 2023, and inflation to decline to 5 percent, though these forecasts crucially depend on the assumption that international commodity prices will ease. Uncertainty remains high, with risks to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation. The budget for 2023 appropriately envisages a return to the fiscal rule deficit ceiling. While the financial sector has remained resilient through the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the shifting macroeconomic outlook calls for further strengthening credit risk monitoring, accounting for bank-by-bank idiosyncratic risks and capacities and improving the surveillance of the housing market. Addressing infrastructure and governance gaps is essential to support new growth engines. Revitalizing the reform program requires strengthening coordination among and across all levels of government. Boosting green energy will increase energy security and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Early withdrawals from the pension system should be avoided.
Keywords:
CBK balance sheet; banking sector assets; diaspora remittance; quarterly producer price index; banking industry; Kosovo diaspora; budget balance; energy sector strategy; Inflation; Energy prices; Electricity; Budget planning and preparation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and opportunities in Kosovo’s electricity sector. Energy market pressures in Europe are likely to continue throughout 2023. Higher energy prices represent a heavy blow for Kosovo’s current account. The tariff-setting framework is broadly sound, but the increase in European electricity prices has led to challenges. Higher European electricity prices have stressed the sector’s flows, creating liquidity choke points. Higher European electricity prices and lower domestic electricity supply may result is significant stress for Kosovo’s energy sector and budget. In the short term, more efficient use of electricity should reduce demand and contribute to balance the system in 2023. In the medium term, boosting energy efficiency and diversification away from lignite is priority. To that end, creating a fund for the renewal and expansion of domestic electricity generation capacity in green technologies could be explored. Starting to explore carbon pricing would strengthen price signals and result in more efficient demand and less carbon intensity.
Keywords:
tax revenue growth; policy implication; Electricity supply chain; central banks in Kosovo; electricity sector; Electricity; Income; Natural gas sector; Tax administration core functions; Europe; Global