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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Curaçao and Sint Maarten: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation presents that Curaçao and Sint Maarten have continued to experience a vigorous post-pandemic recovery underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly led by international oil price developments, notwithstanding a recent uptick, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance with the fiscal rule. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 before gradually converging to its potential over the medium term. Stayover tourism supported by fiscal expansion is projected to drive economic growth at a robust 4.5 percent in 2024 due to new airlifts and further expansion in hotel capacity. Both countries need more public investments and strategies to improve tourist experience and enhance tourism’s value added, including adequate infrastructure to allow for timely ground transportation and continued efforts to improve the quality of services provided.
Keywords:
Sint Maarten team; en Sint Maarten; Curaçao team; IMF staff estimate; Curaçao mission; IT investment; Tourism; Labor markets; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Seychelles: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Seychelles’ 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews under the Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria. The government has made considerable progress under the EFF and RSF Arrangements—strengthening fiscal and external buffers, reducing public debt, and enhancing the policy framework to address climate change. Long-term challenges center on the limits to sustainable tourism-based growth, economic diversification, and Seychelles’ high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The policy framework is guided by the need to preserve macroeconomic and financial sustainability, build fiscal and external buffers, as well as advance prospects for long-term inclusive growth and economic resilience, in line with the objectives under the EFF and RSF. Toward this end, the mission agreed with the authorities on a revised macroeconomic framework and quantitative program targets consistent with the program objectives of steady fiscal consolidation and reduction of public debt over the medium-term.
Keywords:
framework enhancement; Seychellois authorities; government efficiency; tourism sector; government priority; Tourism; Government debt management; Imports; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the Maldives’ economic recovery from coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has shown resilience. Real gross domestic product growth is estimated to moderate to 4.4 percent in 2023, before gradually rising to 5.2 percent in 2024. The discussions focus on comprehensive policy reforms to address fiscal vulnerabilities, stem rising balance of payments pressures, and safeguard financial stability, while supporting sustained strong and inclusive growth. Front-loaded fiscal adjustments, accompanied by tighter monetary and macroprudential policies, are urgently needed to reduce vulnerabilities and restore sustainability of public finances. Adopting macroprudential policies will help mitigate systemic risks stemming from sovereign-bank nexus. Financial sector oversight and crisis management should be further enhanced. Strengthening institutions to support climate adaptation and mitigation efforts and mobilize climate finance is crucial. Improving the business climate, addressing governance and corruption vulnerabilities, and enhancing skill developments will help support strong and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
Maldivian authorities; monetary policy coordination; tourism sector; SARTTAC mission; IMF Policy recommendation; Tourism; Debt sustainability analysis; Climate change; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
2022 FIFA World Cup: Economic Impact on Qatar and Regional Spillovers
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Ken Miyajima
,
Sidra Rehman
, and
Tongfang Yuan
Qatar hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) successfully and took the opportunity to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy. Near-term contributions to Qatar’s economy, from visitors’ spending and WC-related broadcasting revenue, of up to 1 percent of GDP was comparable to cross-country experiences. The event generated positive regional economic spillovers as a sizeable share of spectators stayed in and commuted from neighboring GCC countries. Longer-term contributions were significant—the large investment in general infrastructure ahead of the WC drove much of the non-hydrocarbon sector’s growth in the past decade. The high-quality infrastructure and global visibility brought by the WC should be leveraged to further promote diversification and achieve the National Vision 2030.
Keywords:
Economic diversification; economic transformation; Qatar; structural reform; FIFA World Cup; broadcasting revenue; Qatar's economy; WC spectator; World Cup broadcasting right; Public investment spending; Capital spending; Production growth; Spillovers; Tourism; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Palau has emerged from the pandemic with significant output loss, elevated public debt and historically high inflation. Adverse demographic trends, high dependence on tourism and external support, and vulnerability to climate change risks raise vulnerabilities. The authorities successfully enacted a fiscal responsibility framework and modernized the tax system. Baseline projections assume the approval of Compact Agreement in FY2024. A gradual rebound in tourism is expected to support the recovery. Fiscal policy should remain prudent over the near-term in view of the uncertain economic recovery and higher debt and create fiscal space over the medium-term. Financial sector policies should focus on improving financial sector supervision to preserve financial stability while addressing payment system challenges. Structural policies should aim to diversify the economy and the tourism sector, enable private sector investment, and attract foreign direct investment, including by streamlining processes, improving the regulatory framework, and land-use planning. Climate change policies need to be integrated into development planning, with significant adaptation costs projected over the medium-term.
Keywords:
macroeconomic prospect; foreign reserve asset; GDP estimate; money market rate; COFA renewal; policy option; graduate school USA; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Climate change; Global; Pacific Islands; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cayman Islands: Technical Assistance Report-Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Cayman Islands focuses on improving estimates of gross domestic product (GDP). One activity flagged by the Economics and Statistics Office (ESO) as an area for improvement is the measurement of construction value added. The ESO has expressed an interest in developing ISAs for the Cayman Islands. The detail at which gross domestic product by production approach (GDP-P) and gross domestic product by income approach are compiled mean that transforming the data to an institutional sector basis is feasible. For GDP-P, the ESO conduct an Annual National Accounts Survey, which is the main data source for compiling the production measure estimates. The survey forms strike the right balance in terms of the number of questions and detail required for national accounts, without being too onerous on survey respondents. Given the importance of tourism in the Cayman Islands, the ESO is keen to develop a Tourism Satellite Account for the country.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP at constant prices; Institutional Sector accounts; Tourism.; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; IMF statistics; GDP-E methodology; trade data; tourism satellite account; authorities of the Economics and Statistics Office; Treasury Single Account; Tourism; Deflation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Technical Assistance Report-Taxpayer Compliance Risk Management – Tourism Compliance Improvement Plan
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on Vietnam focuses on taxpayer compliance risk management (CRM)–tourism compliance improvement plan (CIP). The capacity development activity focused on more in-depth practical analysis of risks in the tourism sector, assessing and ranking risk, and understanding behavior, developing strategies, recording this in a CIP and planning for implementation. A workshop and exercise were held to segment the tourism industry by the many perspectives of risk. The report highlights that a high-level Risk Management Steering Committee should be established to review, approve, and oversee the CIP and other key risk documents and outcomes that support the CIP. Provincial tax administrations will be critical to the efficient delivery of the CIP. The Risk Management Board should establish robust and effective relationships with provincial tax administrations to enable them to better understand the benefits of the CRM process and to participate in the key steps for developing CIPs, including the CIP for the tourism sector. RMB should finalize the relevant risk documentation, including the risk assessments, ratings and treatments plans that contribute to the CIP. This should include the analysis of accurate and complete data.
Keywords:
instrumentalities of the TA recipient; report constitute; RMB data needs; tourism sector compliance improvement plan; Fiscalization data; taxpayer return data; Tourism; Compliance risk management; Compliance improvement plans; Interest rate parity; Auditing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Technical Assistance Report-Taxpayer Compliance Risk Management–Tourism Compliance Improvement Plan
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This is a summary report concerning a remotely delivered capacity development (CD) activity by Mr. Joshua Aslett (IMF Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD), Mr. Andy Ditchfield and Mr. Steve Howlin (FAD Short Term Experts (STX)) to the General Department of Taxation (GDT) of Vietnam during the period September 22 to December 15, 2022. The purpose of this CD was to consolidate and build on the compliance risk management (CRM) theory training delivered in June 20211 by practically applying those CRM principles to the tourism sector to create a tourism sector compliance improvement plan (CIP). This remotely delivered activity will be followed by onsite assistance in February 2023 at which time the tourism CIP will be completed.
Keywords:
TA recipient; World Bank staff; GDT staff; tourism sector compliance improvement plan; treatment plan; Compliance improvement plans; Interest rate parity; Compliance risk management; Tourism
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Technical Assistance Report-Taxpayer Compliance Risk Management–Tourism Compliance Improvement Plan
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on Vietnam focuses on tourism compliance improvement plan (CIP). The capacity development (CD) activity focused on identifying risks in the tourism sector and identifying information and data sources to enable completion of the tourism CIP in February 2023. All of the workshops focused on identifying potential risks within the tourism sector and the information/data that General Department of Taxation (GDT) needs to gather before the onsite assistance. The risk intelligence scan will set out fundamental information, data and analysis that enables identification of risks. The CIP will set out fundamental information, data, analysis, conclusions and the treatment strategies that will encourage and compel taxpayers to voluntarily comply. GDT should establish governance, reporting and workflow processes to enable GDT staff to deliver the treatment activities and report on outcomes. The report recommends providing background information on various issues identified by the GDT during earlier assistance, such as legal provisions required using data; and centralized versus decentralized ways of organizing compliance risk management activities.
Keywords:
TA recipient; World Bank staff; GDT staff; tourism sector compliance improvement plan; treatment plan; Compliance improvement plans; Interest rate parity; Compliance risk management; Tourism
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Seychelles: Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Indicative Targets-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Tourism is driving a strong economic recovery in Seychelles. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 10.6 percent in 2022, up from 7.9 percent in 2021. However, the recovery is uneven across sectors of the economy. The authorities have already begun to rebuild policy buffers and have taken measures to protect the poorest as the country transitions from the COVID-19 outbreak. The primary fiscal deficit in 2022 is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP, reflecting an extraordinary consolidation of 13.6 percentage points over the last two years. Risks to debt sustainability have been significantly reduced with the public debt-to-GDP ratio projected at around 68 percent at end-2022, thereby registering a 21-percentage-point reduction in two years.
Keywords:
inflation indicator; Policy discussion; policy commitment; IMF's transparency policy; Policy recommendation; EFF arrangement; Capital spending; Tourism; Credit; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe