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Business and Economics > Public Finance

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 118 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Kazakhstan, Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject to elevated risks, including from an uncertain external environment. Decisive reforms are necessary to diversify the economy, make growth higher and more inclusive, and address challenges from climate change.
Keywords:
IMF TA; IMF's holding; money-market development; inflation pressure; central bank communications; Policy effectiveness; NBK policy rate; oil revenue; IMF's transparency policy; Fiscal stance; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications
Florian Schuster
,
Marwa Alnasaa
,
Lahcen Bounader
,
Il Jung
,
Jeta Menkulasi
, and
Joana da Mota
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Keywords:
Public debt; debt surges; financial crisis; stock-flow adjustment; exchange rate depreciation; fiscal expansion; debt surge; surge episode; surge attribute; post debt path; surge debt trajectory; Contingent liabilities; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision for the Republic of Kazakhstan Financial Sector Assessment Program. Along with the financial stability mandate, the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) pursues a development objective, including by supporting the expansion of banks’ loans portfolio, which can conflict with the safety and soundness of banks and the banking system, and it is not subordinate to it. ARDFM began its activities during the coronavirus pandemic. Banks’ asset quality, while improving, remains a source of concern. However, supervisory discretion is constrained as the law enables the ARDFM to exert its motivated judgment. The ARDFM should perform a more intrusive oversight of related party transactions, including onsite reviews. In addition, the authorities should take more stringent corrective measures vis-à-vis gaps in banks’ related party framework and practices.
Keywords:
regulator's independence; prudential mandate; risk-based supervision; consolidated supervision; related parties; NPL definition; interest rate risk; AML/CFT; IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; Kazakhstan tenge; due diligence; adequacy ASSESSMENT process; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; banking group; risk weight assets; Internal controls; Stress testing; Credit risk; Market risk; Operational risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kazakhstan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Kazakhstan highlights that Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. With many uncertainties affecting the short-term outlook, monetary policy should remain tight until inflation is closer to target and inflation expectations are re-anchored. To support this, there is significant room to further strengthen the NBK’s independence and the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy. Structural reforms are essential to advance Kazakhstan’s transition to a fully-fledged market economy and promote a more vibrant private sector that will lead future job creation and economic diversification and growth.
Keywords:
IMF TA; adjusted inflation indicator; CBDC bank cards; monetary policy committee; State social insurance Fund; quasi-government entity; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial soundness indicators; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on revisiting trend output growth. Trend growth in Kazakhstan has decreased to 2–3 percent due to declining contributions of labor and total factor productivity (TFP). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have reduced the long-term trend GDP level, but it is unlikely to have affected trend GDP growth. Structural reforms to reduce the state footprint in the economy, strengthen public and corporate governance, diversify the economy and exports away from extractive sectors, and promote technological change, are critical to increase future trend GDP growth. The monthly trend-cycle decomposition developed in this Selected Issues Paper may help expand the information set available to policymakers when taking base rate policy decisions. COVID-19 has depressed both trend level and growth in the short term through headwinds to labor, capital, and TFP. It could also affect long-term trend growth through the destruction of human capital, but it is too early to assess the statistical significance of this effect. In any case, structural reforms will be needed to increase trend growth. Priorities include reducing the state footprint, strengthening public and corporate governance, and economic and trade diversification. Increasing the share of investment, including foreign direct investment in nonextractive industries should promote R&D, innovation, and higher TFP.
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Inflation has surged to 18 percent while growth is projected to slow to 2.7 percent this year. High oil prices have strengthened fiscal and external buffers, while the revised budget increased public spending by 2½ percentage points of GDP to support activity. Subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian banks have exited the domestic market and regulatory compliance is being enhanced to avoid secondary sanctions. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as adverse global conditions could lower oil prices and raise borrowing costs, while oil exports through Russian territory remain a major source of vulnerability. Accelerated economic diversification and private sector development are needed to attain sustainable and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
IMF TA; climate strategy; General government Fiscal Operations; State social insurance fund; quasi-government entity; FSI website; Inflation; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Financial soundness indicators; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had modest impact on economic activity in Kazakhstan to date. Real GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.7 percent in 2022, from 4.3 percent in 2021, due mostly to temporary disruptions to oil production. Inflation has continued to rise about 19 percent, reflecting global inflation, the depreciation of the tenge, and rapid wage and credit growth. The authorities took multiple actions to preserve stability and support the economy. A key macroeconomic policy challenge being to contain inflation, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised its policy rate by 700 basis points since mid-2021, and indicated that further tightening may be necessary. In addition, the government established temporary export restrictions of essential goods and controls of energy and utility prices. In response to social demands and following the outbreak of the war, the government adopted a revised budget significantly expanding public spending. In 2022, the authorities announced a set of new governance and economic reforms which would address some of Kazakhstan’s main development impediments.
Keywords:
IMF TA; climate strategy; General government Fiscal Operations; State social insurance fund; quasi-government entity; FSI website; Inflation; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Financial soundness indicators; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
partner diversification; trend growth; governance vulnerability; trend output growth; CIS economy; Total factor productivity; Business cycles; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Global; Europe; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kazakhstan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
Keywords:
foreign currency lending; IMF TA; lending in the economy; Kazakh authorities; oil export capacity; Inflation; Government finance statistics; Fiscal stance; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Technical Assistance Report-Risk-Based Supervision Pillar 2 Implementation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported the Agency in strengthening certain elements of its risk based supervisory framework. The mission focused on assisting the Agency with its development of internal supervisory methodologies for assessing a bank’s ICAAP, and for setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory capital requirements. The mission provided recommendations and targeted training. The priorities for the next TA missions were discussed with the Agency (strengthening banking supervision and cybersecurity, and diagnostic TA of insurance sector supervision will be considered). The mission benefited from simultaneous translation.
Keywords:
staff team of the International Monetary Fund; process documentation; structure of the banking sector; authoring department; ICAAP assessment; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Internal controls; Operational risk; Corporate governance; bank's ICAAP; risk profile; draft methodology; ICAAP documentation; Risk-based supervision