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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
À la suite des élections présidentielles du 14 janvier, le Président Azali a présenté son nouveau cabinet en juillet, introduisant plusieurs nouvelles figures dans la scène politique avec une équipe en partie renouvelée et rajeunie. Dans ce contexte de transition politique, l’économie comorienne montre des signes de fléchissement, s’accompagnant de tensions inflationnistes entraînées par la hausse accélérée des prix des denrées alimentaires. Le crédit au secteur privé a ralenti durant toute l’année, les importateurs se désendettant après avoir considérablement augmenté leurs emprunts ces deux dernières années pour faire face au prix élevé des importations. Les volumes de produits importés, notamment de denrées alimentaires, ont diminué au premier semestre 2024, et les exportations et l’investissement public ont été plus faibles que prévu. Les efforts d’administration des recettes fiscales ont été entravés par les troubles qui ont suivi les élections, l’épidémie de choléra et les conditions météorologiques extrêmes du premier semestre 2024. Le secteur extérieur reste néanmoins stable, avec des réserves adéquates pour couvrir plus de sept mois d’importations.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights the Union of the Comoros’ Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Program performance remains broadly on track albeit uneven, amid a political transition and a more challenging external financing environment. While there is considerable progress toward the achievement of program objectives, significant and continued effort is required to maintain the reform momentum. The authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to the reform agenda under the ECF-supported program. Institutional and governance improvements remain critical as a foundation for economic activity and to enhance policy credibility for domestic and external stakeholders. Reforms such as the operationalization of the Anti-Corruption Chamber have advanced, with additional support required for capacity development and to boost public sector transparency. Economic conditions have remained stable despite inflationary pressures and signs of softening economic activity, and adherence to the ECF-supported program will safeguard macroeconomic stability and advance needed structural reforms while catalyzing additional financial support for the country’s large financing needs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Union of Comoros’ Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. Performance under Comoros’s economic reform program continues to be broadly satisfactory, and the authorities remain committed to the economic policies and reforms underpinning the ECF-supported program. Reforms are beginning to bear fruit, with visible signs of macroeconomic stabilization. However, Comoros continues to face the challenges of a small, fragile island state which requires steadfast program implementation and continued support from international partners. Monetary policy has contained inflation and ensured sufficient external buffers for Comoros and the stability of the peg. Continued efforts to stabilize the financial sector, including through the restructuring of the state-owned postal bank, addressing credit quality in the banking system, and strengthening banking supervision and resolution capacities are welcome. Support from international partners continues to be important for addressing the country’s large development needs and climate-related risks.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Union of the Comoros’ 2023 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Modifications of Performance Criteria. Performance under Comoros’s economic reform program has been broadly satisfactory, despite a challenging context and the authorities remain committed to the ECF Arrangement. Policy priorities under the program aim to preserve medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability, improve public financial management by monitoring fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises, enhance financial sector stability through strengthening supervision and resolution capacities, and improve the governance architecture. Continued fiscal consolidation, including through improved domestic revenue mobilization, will gradually reduce financing needs and create the fiscal space necessary for the considerable social and investment spending priorities. The focus on strengthening the monetary policy toolkit is welcome and the fixed exchange rate regime has provided an effective anchor for monetary policy and ensured sufficient external buffers for Comoros. Sound program implementation would help to ensure economic resilience and support social and developmental objectives.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the costing and financing of social development goals (SDG) in Comoros. Comoros is committed to achieve SDGs, but progress has been limited. This paper uses two models—a costing model and a financing model—to illustrate the large costs of reaching some of the SDGs related to social, human capital and infrastructure by the target year of 2030 and to highlight particular cost drivers. The substantial cost of achieving SDG, 18.8 percent of 2030 gross domestic product, is due to the country’s very low starting point and the inherent difficulties associated with its small size. The persistently very weak domestic resources are another reason for the substantive cost of achieving SDGs. The ongoing commitments of the authorities in the Extended Credit Facility program, with a focus on enhancing domestic revenue mobilization is a key to achieve better outcomes in this area. The fiscal space generated by the program could be both used to restore debt sustainability and to accelerate the achievement of SDGs in Comoros.
Anne-Marie Geourjon
,
Bertrand Laporte
, and
Mr. Gilles Montagnat-Rentier
This note discusses the relevance of mirror data analysis for customs administrations and how these administrations can adjust this technique to their needs, particularly to support the customs risk management function. Based on IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s capacity development experience in developing countries, it describes in detail the recommended steps to be followed to analyze the data, then advises on the operational utilization of obtained results.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Union of Comoros’ request for a 4-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The ECF-supported program will help preserve Comoros’ macroeconomic stability and implement the authorities’ plans for fiscal consolidation, financial sector stabilization, and governance and anti-corruption reforms. Program measures aim to reduce economic and institutional fragilities and create fiscal space for needed investments in human and physical capital. Continued support from Comoros’ international partners, both in terms of financing and capacity development, will be critical for the success of the program. Strong and timely support from donors, complemented by IMF disbursements, is critical. Given the sizeable financing needs over the coming years, the authorities need to intensify their effort to mobilize financial support, including through good progress in the reform implementation. The reform program and financing supported by the ECF will continue to play a catalytic role.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Comoros is a small, fragile island state (population: 850,000) with low and shock-prone growth. A Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) has been in place since July 2021. Policies aimed to: (i) contain and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic; and (ii) start implementing reforms to overcome fragility, boost inclusive growth, and limit risks. The first review assessed implementation through end-September 2021 as satisfactory and rescheduled three structural benchmarks that needed more time from end-December 2021 to end-February 2022. This second (and final) review assessed implementation of end-December 2021 and end-February 2022 quantitative targets and structural benchmarks, as well as overall policy implementation under the SMP.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Union of The Comoros’ Second Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The implementation of the SMP, which supported the government’s reform program during 2021–2022, was broadly satisfactory, with most quantitative targets and structural benchmarks being met on time. The reported number of coronavirus disease 2019-related cases has remained relatively low. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) incurred substantial losses in 2022 as administered prices were slow to adjust to the surge in global commodity prices, implying lower fiscal revenue, higher public debt, and wider financing gaps over the medium term. Comoros was already facing a high risk of debt distress and substantial financing gaps due to large projects financed by nonconcessional debt and the restructuring of the insolvent state-owned postal bank (SNPSF). The recent deterioration in macroeconomic conditions has further heightened debt sustainability risks. Strong remittances and a resumption of tourism have helped cushion the shock while maintaining an adequate level of foreign reserves. The fallout from the war in Ukraine, however, has set back the expected fiscal gains, underscoring the need for continued fiscal consolidation efforts. IMF welcomes the authorities’ commitment to continuing engagement with the IMF country and technical assistance teams as they push forward the remaining structural benchmark and tackle other structural reforms.

Abstract

Governance and corruption issues have taken the center stage in international discussions, especially after the adoption by the IMF in 2018 of a new framework for engagement on governance and corruption. Sound institutions that guarantee integrity in the management of public affairs are critical on the path toward higher and more inclusive growth. Corruption undermines the quality of institutions, weakens the effectiveness of government programs, and compromises social trust in government policies. Indeed, countries around the world that improved their governance systems are reaping a “governance dividend,” and governance-enhancing reformist countries in sub-Saharan Africa include Botswana, Rwanda, and Seychelles. In addition, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Angola demonstrate that important reforms are possible, including in fragile environments. The importance of good governance has acquired even more importance as countries try to introduce policies to fight the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Special attention to governance in an emergency context, including situations associated with conflict, other health crises and natural disasters, is therefore essential. Innovation and new technologies are critical instruments that policymakers can use in their efforts to improve governance and transparency.