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Business and Economics > Public Finance

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Kiribati: Agricultural Subsidies for Copra: Improving Efficiency and Equity and Balancing Trade-offs
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance mission assessed Kiribati’s agricultural output price scheme that subsidizes the production of copra (dried coconut). The mission estimates that subsidies in 2023 amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP. The scheme’s technical and allocative inefficiencies, incidence in rural areas, and high fiscal cost, could be mitigated in the short- and medium term, by scaling back the subsidies, replacing them in part with cash transfers and public goods provision in the outer islands, securing fiscal savings in the process, and introducing competitive elements in the copra value chain.
Keywords:
Kiribati; subsidy; agriculture; efficiency; equity; expenditure; IMF activity; subsidy scheme; copra value chain; value chain concern; farmgate price; public goods provision; Government subsidies; Export prices; Agricultural sector; Consumption
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Kiribati discusses that the economy strengthened after the removal of all coronavirus disease 2019 restrictions in the second half of 2022. Kiribati is among the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. Infrastructure gaps compound already challenging constraints imposed by distance and dispersion, limiting the development of the private sector in the state-dominated economy, and cementing its reliance on imports, especially for essential commodities such as food and fuel. IMF team recommended initiating an ambitious fiscal consolidation effort through scaling back recurrent spending and strengthening the fiscal policy framework. It is also imperative to implement structural reforms to raise private sector employment and investment, enhance export competitiveness, close infrastructure and human capital gaps, expand financial access, better utilize natural resources, and strengthen institutions and governance. Additionally, it is required to continue capacity development to produce high-quality statistics in a timely manner to support data-driven policy formulation.
Keywords:
Kiribati authorities; private sector employment; IMF headquarters; Kiribati's economy; money market rate; Debt sustainability analysis; Agroindustries; Government debt management; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on a case study on copra subsidy in Kiribati. The copra subsidy, disbursed as a minimum support price, is a major part of the social safety net in Kiribati. The subsidy has multiple purposes—including as a means to transfer resources to the outer islands and to stem migration to the capital. The horizontal diversification model shows that a higher subsidy on copra diverts production and labor towards copra but lowers overall income. The vertical diversification model demonstrates how a subsidy on a primary product increases its supply but reduces production of the final good. Considering the benefits, the government could boost the subsidy’s efficiency, replace the scheme with a poverty-targeted social assistance program, or impose a cap on payments. Development partners, including the IMF and the World Bank, stand ready to provide support in both areas as needed.
Keywords:
COPRA subsidy; Copra support price; price support scheme; impact of subsidy; household income expenditure survey report; cut support price; Price incentives; Agricultural commodities; Income; Exports; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with Kiribati discusses that the recovery is expected to gain momentum in 2023. Real gross domestic product growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2023, as economic activities return to a more normal state with the resumption of large infrastructure projects and improved weather conditions. The authorities’ strategy to boost export competitiveness and promote private sector development is encouraging and needs to be further augmented with robust structural reforms. Continued efforts to build statistical capacity will facilitate data-based policymaking. The authorities need to strengthen institutional capacity to produce high-quality national accounts, government finance statistics, and financial sector data in a timely manner to support sound economic management. It is encouraging that the authorities plan to implement the IMF’s Enhanced General Data Dissemination System by publishing economic data on a National Summary Data Page, which will help improve the availability of timely statistics.
Keywords:
Kiribati consumer price index; headline inflation; standard of living; IMF headquarters; CPI update; Government finance statistics; Agroindustries; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2018 Article IV Consultation -Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Growth has been strong in recent years and some moderation is expected, with risks skewed to the downside. High fishing revenues improved the fiscal position, but generated pressure to increase spending. There has been progress on fiscal and structural reforms. Yet, public spending needs are large, driven by an infrastructure gap and climate adaptation costs, and the country remains at high risk of debt distress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kiribati; government; debt; fishing revenue; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; government transition; resilience to climate change; private sector growth; government's plan; Agroindustries; Natural disasters; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release;Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kiribati’s recent economic performance has been strong. Growth is estimated to have reached 3.5 percent in 2015, supported by record-high fishing revenue, donor-financed infrastructure projects, and reconstruction in the aftermath of cyclone Pam. The fiscal position has improved markedly in recent years. High fishing revenue contributed to a recurrent fiscal balance of almost 50 percent of GDP in 2015, more than offsetting the increase in recurrent government spending of 13 percent. Growth is projected to moderate somewhat to about 3 percent in 2016, while inflation remains subdued owing to low food and commodity prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Kiribati; real GDP; dollar; development partner; GDP; fishing revenue; private sector growth; government's plan; Kiribati authorities; Climate change; Agroindustries; Government finance statistics; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
KEY ISSUES Context. Donor-financed large infrastructure projects, increased public spending, and a pick-up in credit to households have boosted real GDP growth to close to 4 percent in 2014 and to about 3 percent in 2015. Inflation remains low, underpinned by lower food and commodity prices. Steps are being taken to reduce the many hurdles to private growth that Kiribati faces, among which are high transportation and communication costs and an increasing impact of climate change. Fiscal policy. The fiscal outlook has improved, but further efforts are needed to ensure sustainability. The recurrent balance was in large surplus in 2014 and is expected to remain positive in 2015, reflecting high revenue from license fees, and notwithstanding a large increase in expenditures. But under the historic pace of spending the sovereign wealth fund (Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund—RERF) would be depleted in about 20 years. Ensuring sustainability requires containing nominal expenditure growth to around 1½ per annum over the next five years (after accommodating climate-change-related costs), with transparent and symmetric transfers and withdrawals from the RERF around this path. Structural reforms. There is a consensus among donors that significant progress has been achieved. The State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Reform Act is being implemented in a satisfactory way, as illustrated by the recent successful privatization of the telecommunication company. Key outstanding issues include further reforming the energy and copra sectors and improving the investment climate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure growth path; development expenditure; debt-to-GDP; real GDP; expenditure path; climate change; fishing license; Agroindustries; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
KEY ISSUES Kiribati’s key economic challenges are to reduce large structural fiscal imbalances and increase growth and employment opportunities, while facing obstacles posed by remoteness, lack of scale, vulnerabilities to external shocks and climate change. The significant fiscal consolidation envisaged by the authorities will help stabilize Kiribati’s sovereign wealth fund (the Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund, or RERF) in real per capita terms. This stabilization effort would also require that fishing license fees remain close to recent exceptionally high levels, with windfall incomes relative to the conservative budgeted baseline saved. In the event of weaker fishing license fee revenues, a more ambitious adjustment in the non-fishing budget would be needed. The small private sector share in the economy due to remoteness and weaknesses in business climate constrains growth and puts strain on public finances. Continuing the fiscal and structural reform program is essential. Climate change brings additional risks and fiscal costs. Main Recommendations: • Continue fiscal reforms designed to deliver fiscal consolidation and improved public financial management. Seek to maintain fishing license fees above the current conservative budget baseline, with windfalls saved to strengthen RERF balances. If fishing license fee windfalls cannot be sustained, explore other options to further strengthen fiscal balances. • Continue reforms of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). • Facilitate growth through improving the business climate and infrastructure, including through streamlining government services.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; debt; GDP; real GDP; Kiribati authorities; PV; reform program; reform state-owned enterprises; economic reform operation; fishing license revenue; PFTAC advisor; Agroindustries; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Pacific Islands
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on the Fund's Engagement with Small Developing States
International Monetary Fund
This note highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing small developing states. It provides operational guidance on Fund engagement with such countries, including on how small country size might influence the use of Fund facilities and instruments, program design, capacity building activities, and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The guidance note draws on the March 2013 Board papers on small states and the associated Executive Board discussion. The findings of the paper and implications for Fund engagement with small states were presented to small states authorities during the 2013 Annual Meetings, as well as in regional IMF conferences with small states in the Bahamas (September 2013) and Vanuatu (November 2013). Series
Keywords:
PP; exchange rate; monetary policy; insurance coverage; authorities policy; cash balance; government reform; reform effort; small states; private sector; fiscal policy; balance of payments; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Pacific Islands; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kiribati: 2013 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Informational Annex, Debt Sustainability Analysis, Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Kiribati is one of the poorest and most remote microstates in the Pacific. It is highly dependent on volatile fishing license fees, remittances, and donor assistance. The challenge is to implement fiscal and structural reforms to help ensure fiscal sustainability, promote private sector development, and increase its resilience to external shocks. Fully using its marine potential beyond fishing license fees will help to improve fiscal revenues and growth opportunities. More generally, private sector development is critical for both increasing growth and reducing fiscal pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; real GDP; debt; RERF balance; RERF assets; Kiribati authorities; staff projection; policy reform matrix; Kiribati's so; Agroindustries; Climate change; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Global